So, Putin recorded a speech. Kinda the same energy as the pre-SMO one, so probably serious.

Boils down to him stating:

that the front is too long for the current Ukrainian contingent,

that NATO’s hand is so far up Ukraine’s ass and that they’re openly talking about destroying Russia so much that it’s one step short of war with NATO (you know, for those who haven’t been paying attention),

shaking nuclear stick at NATO as a response to their nuclear terrorism at Zaporozhskaya nuclear power plant and as a part of his statement that Russia will use every tool (he emphasized) at it’s disposal to defend it’s sovereignty and territorial cohesion,

and him declaring partial mobilization.

Not part of the speach, but for context - Donbass republics are having referendums to join RF Sep 23-27. Liberated parts of Kherson and Zaporozhskaya oblasts are talking about those too of late, but no dates as of yet.

What “partial” means is - mobilization of reservists. No conscript hordes with one rifle for five soldiers (since we all know Russian military lost all of it’s hardware in Ukraine /s). MoD states the goal of about 300000, which is not even a 4th of the reserve, but, all things considered, sounds about right, unless shit in Central Asia really hits the fan.

Soldiers mobilised this way get all the payment and priviliges of a contract soldier, and it’s worth mentioning that yesterday Duma passed a big ol’ batch of war time and military laws with stuff like plugging the legal hole that allowed contract soldiers to basically get all the nice stuff in peace time and as soon as they’re sent to actually fight somewhere say “nope” and leave the military (facepalm).

Also military contractors were mentioned. They’re expected to step up their game, but I don’t know how realistic that is short-term. Russian industry has a bad problem with producing machine tools (thanks, 90s), so it’s not like a shitload of new factories can be built real quick. Maybe there is something going on with China (pressing X for doubt) or…I dunno, Iran. I guess this stuff would be real hush-hush.

Also worth mentioning is the fact that strikes at Ukrainian infrastructure have, seemingly, become regular since that thermal power station. Artillery-terrorism in Donetsk, on the other hand, got worse. Come referendums, it’s probably gonna get as bad as Ukraine can possibly make it. You know, because that’ll make people of Donetsk reconsider…

Links (there is a transcript under the video, should be Chrome-translateable, right?):

http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69390

http://www.kremlin.ru/acts/news/69391

https://ria.ru/20220920/dezertirstvo-1818119075.html

P.S. I don’t know if it’s intentional grim trolling, but September 21st is International Peace Day and Putin’s speach was due yesterday, but got postponed until today.

    • SovereignState
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      2 years ago

      Feel free to totally disregard this comment if you feel it would be giving away too much info, but ever since this announcement I’ve been wondering if you particularly fall into this class of “reservists” as I believe all Russian men 18-27 are required to serve a year in the military. I don’t presume if you’re a man or not either, I’ve just been wondering if you’re in danger of being conscripted.

    • Camarada Forte
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      2 years ago

      I believe that while this war benefits the Russian bourgeoisie, because they are fighting NATO and their puppets, it also benefits every nation on the planet. But war is always a tragedy to humanity.

    • @EuthanatosMurderhobo@lemmygrad.mlOP
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      2 years ago

      Коммунисты первой мировой, пропагандировавшие среди солдат императорской армии смотрят на тебя с укором. И это всё ещё анти-империалистическая война, даже если ведёт её реакционный капитал.

      Everyone is like “Russia should step up their game, this isn’t working, they’re severely outnumbered there”. Russia - partially mobilizes. Everyone - NOT LIKE THIS.

      P.S. Расслабь булки, судя по комментам ты на военной кафедре получил ВУС. МО в первую очередь будет призывать всяких контрабасов, которые в своё время расторгли контракт.

  • @Seepolizei@lemmygrad.ml
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    2 years ago

    Entering the cool zone now, while I continue my critical support for dismantling the Ukrainian army and it’s fascist collaborators I was naively hoping this would be a contained regional conflict.

    Make no mistake, up until this point I struggle to call the current war “humane” but it was conducted with the type of strategy you would expect invading a historic sister nation that many remember being part of the same Union in their lifetime. Russians pulled up to the gates of Kiev and hoped for a reasonable surrender or popular uprising to save lives and prevent a drawn out urban siege. Instead, Ukraine mobilized the fucking Volkstrum, Einsatzgruppen, youth brigades and Strafbataillon all at once completely willing to kill every last civilian to protect their regime. I genuinely think the Russians didn’t expect that, assuming their Slavic brothers still had some familiarity and would opt to negotiate rather than having been fully captured by their western overlords. They didn’t want to “liberate” Kiev the same way the Americans “liberated” Seoul and and Pyongyang. So they pulled back, refocused solely on the East, and have been using a strategy of creeping artillery and slow infantry pushes to move the line slowly but consistently in a way that-- theoretically anyway-- limits civilian casualties. Less American “shock and awe” more a WW1 style crawl with the line moving slowly enough that the theater of combat should only be military targets. At least, if the fucking Ukraine Army werent holding civilians captive to use as human shields or conscripts.

    I’d convinced myself everything was going to plan but with this and the newest Ukraine suicide push actually cutting through to their rear, for the first time I’m wondering if even a fraction of the Ukraine propaganda on the state of the Russian army is true. This seems like a pretty big escalation that I originally would have assumed was unnecessary, but it seems like the first time I’ve seen frustration and attrition is setting in anywhere near the level that western propaganda has claimed up to this point.

    Annexation of eastern Ukraine was inevitable but doing it now before the region is fully liberated would make it go from essentially a Russian expeditionary war inside a neighboring state to a direct “state versus state” conflict. That is, a fully conventional conflict with Ukraine troops and NATO staff launching attacks into Russia proper. That kind of shit opens a new can of worms, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a secondary push into Kiev from Belarus again this time with the kids gloves off.

    It’s going to be bad. And I think we should be prepared to recognize that if that happens, for our part viewing this critically within Marxist discourse.

    Tl;Dr sorry for the rant kinda blacked out there. There’s likely going to be a tangible shift in the war strategy, and it’s going to make things worse for civilians on both sides. I’ll be watching the Chinese and Russian communists carefully to see how this effects how we might view this conflict.

    • I’m wondering if even a fraction of the Ukraine propaganda on the state of the Russian army is true

      I almost stopped paying attention to what it’s saying about that at some point, what with their statements that “Russia demilitarizes itself” by destroying targets with expensive rockets, but the biggest problem is numbers. More artillery or not, you need soldiers for a long frontline. By different estimates it’s 6-8 times difference right now and don’t forget Syria and Central Asia.

      It’s going to be bad.

      I think it won’t be worse than continuing as is. I have had to worry about some relatives not far from the frontline for months now, because it’s barely moving. As you mentioned, Ukrainian side does a lot to make the slow approach not any safer for the civilians. The faster this ends, the less of a humanitarian shitshow it is.