Russia has decided to withdraw its troops from the right bank of the Dnieper River, including the regional capital of Kherson. The Defense Ministry explained that it wants to avoid unnecessary losses among its forces and spare the lives of civilians.
While admitting that the decision is not an easy one, the commanders see little sense in keeping the troops on the right bank, the chief of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, General Army General Sergey Surovikin, told Defense Minister Sergey Schoigu on Wednesday. The general pointed to continued Ukrainian attacks on the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric dam on the Dnieper River, arguing that it could leave the Russian troops in Kherson cut off from the rest of the force with no way to escape.
A pullout would help save lives of the Russian soldiers and keep the combat effectiveness of the force grouping in the area, Surovikin said.
This is a very difficult decision. Yet, we would be able to preserve the most important thing: lives of our soldiers.
“Start the pullback of forces,” Shoigu told Surovikin in a video released by media outlets. The minister ordered the general to organize secure relocation for both soldiers and civilians.
Over the past weeks, the local authorities have launched an effort to bring as many civilians as possible to the left bank of Dnieper, citing a threat posed by Ukrainian forces located on the opposite side. Over 150,000 people had been moved out of the city as of today, according to Sorovikin.
Russia incorporated Kherson Region last month, after residents voted in a referendum to break away from Ukraine and seek accession to Russia. Kiev rejected the vote as a “sham” and pledged to use military force to recapture all territories it considers to be under its sovereignty.
There’s a pretty stark difference between the way Russia and Ukraine conduct this war. Russia always prioritizes preserving the troops and equipment while focusing on strategic gains. On the other hand, Ukraine strategy is driven largely by delivering media victories for their western sponsors.
As a result, Ukraine is suffering horrific losses of men and equipment without having the ability to replenish either effectively. Ukraine has no domestic military industrial capacity at this point, and relies solely on the dwindling supplies from the west. Meanwhile, much of the able bodied population has already been either drafted or fled the country by now. Russia is also in the process of dismantling the power grid in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Nazi militiase are fighting a desperate extermination campaign utilizing human shields and humiliation tactics. Since they’re running low on shields and personnel, they’re starting to fall back on terrorism, meanwhile the Russians are actually doing what they can to avoid mass civillian casualties. As much as the atrocity propaganda portrays the Ruskies as butchers, I don’t think most people understand that they could easily flatten Kyiv within a day if they wanted too.
Keep in mind that we’re not supposed to see any of this. That’s why combat footage is so sparse except for clips of drones or artilery hitting a single guy or a small group (Reddit wholesome 100 overkill). The camera’s stay on Zelensky to distract from the truth that Ukraine’s army has fallen apart. Personally, I wouldn’t be shocked if NATO forces were already on the ground doing the fighting at this point.
Yeah, the fact that it took Russia whole seven months to start going after infrastructure shows that they have been fighting with one hand tied behind their back here.
We already have confirmation that US troops are in Ukraine, and it would be shocking if they didn’t participate in combat action. Specifically, all the NATO equipment that gets sent to Ukraine needs trained personnel to operate. There is no way to train up Ukrainians on it because it takes many months if not years to do so.
We say Kiev here! Like god intended
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I knew by day 3 that we were witnessing extreme media manipulation. Even in Iraq and Afghanistan you saw evidence of huge firefights, but in Ukraine it’s just small groups of guys being hit with artilery.
Exactly, it’s like the eastern theater of the American Civil War. The north ultimately beat the south because their more advanced economic system and greater population could bring much more force to bear. Surovikin, in a sense, is doing a March to Sea on Ukraine with his strikes on the power grid.
The difference, of course, is that Russia actually has competent generals (unlike Lincoln, who had to wade through a bunch of buffoons), and that Ukraine, unlike the Confederacy, is much more of a clown show militarily --albeit a clown show with international support.
Clown show with international western support. Majority of the world is either neutral or pro Russia (based). Furthermore, clown country 404 is literally led by a clown, in more respects than one.
Good analogy, another interesting comparison is with Vietnam. This video does a good job contrasting what US is doing in Ukraine with what they were doing in South Vietnam.
I love how this is being portrayed as a Ukrainian victory. The Russians have decided to leave, they aren’t being chased out, they weren’t all killed, they are simply stopping support to that area. But war is game now, so no one is allowed to talk about shit in a realistic way.
One of my patients is a financial advisor to fascist regimes like Ukraine and Turkey. He was bloviating yesterday about this being the ‘beginning of the end’ as the mighty Ukraine defeats the flaccid Russia. What a tool.
Sounds like it malpractice time
I hope they’ll get as many civilians away from there as possible, considering the ones left behind will likely be “filtered” by the Nazis
It’s a fake referendum but if we find out you voted yes you’re going to jail!
Judging from previous filtering done by Ukraine, “Jail” means “bullet to the head” followed by presenting it as a massacre done by the russian army.
Evacuation’s been going for some time now. I’ve seen estimates between 80 and 100k evacuated. Considering pre-war population of 280k and accounting for people leaving on their own for half a year, might be a good number or an ok number, idk.
This really is my top concern with this war. This debate over who to support is pointless because the reality is that literal Nazis in Ukraine have been murdering noncombatants or are planning to commit these horrible massacres in basically every area they “liberate.” Can you imagine that? How fucking evil can someone be that they stop having a war to go and brutalize some civillian “collaborators?”
The war has gone to the back of my priorities right now and I don’t have the mental capacity to watch it intensively right now. Is this good news or bad news for Russia?
Depends who you ask. Some of my friends are already burning their chairs with rectal exhaust and say the war has been lost and we should expect a military coup.
Same kind of freak out happened last time Russia pulled back.
True, and the fact that it happened again is one of the reasons for the panic.
Plus the fact that Kherson is now considered Russian territory proper, while Kharkov was not
But what exactly happened, Ukraine didn’t score any military victories, it didn’t take anything strategically important. How does this change the trajectory of the war in any way?
The long term goal Surovikin stateed is the destruction of Ukrainian army through attrition. Letting Ukraine take places like Kherson city seems perfectly in line with that. There is no point wasting people and machinery defending positions just for the sake of saving face.
The long term goal Surovikin stateed is the destruction of Ukrainian army through attrition.
As horrible as this thought is, this is legitimately the only way any form of a peace can be established. The fighting won’t end with Russia withdrawing, Ukraine needs to be thoroughly demilitarized or else they might just completely wipe out the folks they’ve aleady been targeting in the Donbas. Then again, judging from the car bombs and the bridge explosion we’ve entered a stage where the militias are just openly resorting to terror attacks on Russian civillians.
Agreed, also breaking the will to fight will ultimately mean that Ukraine will accept defeat and Russian terms. This avoids the repeat of Minsk agreements.
They’ve (apparently) forced the RAF on the defensive. In what is now legally Russian territory. While the corridor for weapons and western mercs is very much up and running. Are you sure there’s not point to be concerned?
Most NATO countries are already saying that they’ve sent all they can with US is sending vast majority of what’s still being sent. This is also dwindling with every package being smaller than the last. Not only that, but only 30% of these weapons actually make it to the battlefield in the first place. With Ukrainian electric grid getting dismantled delivering things to the front lines becomes even harder given that most of the trains are using electric locomotives.
Meanwhile, western mercs are hardly coming in numbers that could possibly make a difference. If NATO decides to get involved officially, that would be a different question at that point.
The reality of the situation is that Russia is able outproduce the west in terms of arms manufacturing because the west has been deindustrialized at this point. Russia also has direct rail lines for delivering weapons to the frontline that Ukraine is not able to attack.
Time is on Russia’s side here. The longer this goes the less support Ukraine gets. All of the west is entering a deep economic crisis right now. For example, UK Ministry of Defence source acknowledged that the UK’s financial contribution to the war effort will have dried up by the end of the year.. With republicans getting elected in US midterms, the support for Ukraine will be dropping as well.
So, I’m not really sure what you’re concerned about here specifically. Russia is doing the right thing by pulling back from a city that has no strategic value and conserving resources. Once Ukraine burns out on the current offensive they will be in a worse state than they started, and will have gained nothing of tangible value in the process.
Long game
It’s definitely not good news for Russia. Retreating is not a sign of imminent victory. But it seems like an orderly withdrawal to preseve combat power so it’s not a disaster for Russia.
Who knows. It’s supposedly not to risk the forces just getting washed away if ukros finally blow up Kakhovskaya HPS, so, I guess, no large-scale assaults are planned before winter, but it’s not like I have Surovikin’s phone number.
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xD
Surovikin has said that while Ukraine throws everything it can at the enemy, and suffers from horrifying casualty ratios as a result, the Russians have a different strategy: preserve as many military and civilian lives as possible, while simultaneously keeping up pressure and grinding down the enemy. This is, I believe, basically consistent with Soviet military doctrine.
The guy was behind the liberation of Aleppo. I trust him.
By simple logic it is not feasible to have a POSITION in a place that is soon under water (the threat of blowing up the dam is real if the liberation forces are still there). Kherson/Kherson is the city, not the oblast. It’s one thing to regroup (fix to secure more advantageous positions) and another to retreat (surrender leaving critical positions and outposts).
What I see here is a huge booby trap; a Pyrrhic victory (reconquer the CITY) having already decimated Ukrainian forces, without human (civilian) shields, the adequate distance from your artillery (the local soldiers left but the other rear positions are intact) without the restriction of containing yourself to avoid civilian casualties and the enormous problem of trying to advance across the Dnieper (the bridges are just bait). In fact, it is attached to the strategy described by a Cuban commander who follows and is studying the events of this conflict; weaken the ukronazi positions, not even destroy them in their entirety, just affect them in such a way that they cannot maintain the positions in the rest of the black sea river (with the icing on the cake called Odessa).
The media even plays for Russia indirectly (they can’t beat the Dombass and now they think they’re going for Crimea lol). Since most of the decisions that are being made on the Ukrainian/NATO side are based more on media consensus than military consensus.
Problem is, how many people remain in the city? Remember that Ukraine issued a law that makes participating in the referendum a crime. I’m not even mentioning purges and death squads.
There’s been ongoing evacuations from the city ever since the referendum
Exactly.
Very few people decided to stay, but practically more than 95% left the city.
Good. Seems they do know what would happen if they stay.
Who is this cuban commander?
Hope this isn’t copium
From what?
I don’t understand the question
Regarding your previous comment, I don’t understand what you mean.
This part:
What I see here is a huge booby trap
Pretty sure that’s what people said about Kharkov situation. Then MoD basically admitted they had no resources to hold it due to fuck ups. Then mobilization got announced and Wagner recruitment spiked. So yes, I hope you are right and we’re not just huffing copium over a capitalist system’s incompetence.
Ok ok.
Regarding Kharkov: How much did the Ukrainians advance in effective terms?, that is, number of kilometers, positions, large cities, strategic areas, critical civil/military infrastructure (note, not villages or small semi-abandoned towns) almost nothing, several square kilometers with no strategic value . Where was that great Kyev offensive? combative dispositions lacking. How many oblasts have recovered since that? Zero
In the case of the Wagners, they are a separate thing: they are special units created especially for unconventional war conflicts (mainly behind enemy lines) with an autonomous administrative structure. Now, how many mobilizations has Russia carried out? 1 Partial, only a small fraction of eligible personnel have been called up. And Ukraine? 7 General mobilizations (practically any civilian, with or without military experience).
In the Ukrainian forces a good part of the personnel is militant or regular soldiers of the NATO countries and vassals, not to mention the weapons and resources. In Russia, almost everyone is from Russian territory, except for some internationalist comrades, but the cases are very few.
In the Ukrainian forces a good part of the personnel is militant or regular soldiers of the NATO countries and vassals, not to mention the weapons and resources
That’s the thing - there are more of those than there are us. Even if UAF runs out of bodies to throw at the wall, there’s plenty of Poles, Balts, Brits, etc
How much did the Ukrainians advance in effective terms?
Not much, perhaps, but the whole thing has been a major reputation blow to the Russians. They’ve left a lot of people to the wolves, and the second UAF rolled in, executions of “collaborators” started. People who previously waited for the Russians to come and liberate them now view them with suspicion and disappointment.
Time will tell if that’s an acceptable loss.
While one look at the map is enough to understand that decision, losing major city so soon after the referendum is not good.
I trust Surovikin. Patriots in control!
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Why?
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Long game
Edit: also, if the numbers ppl are citing are true, it seems they worked hard to make sure the majority of these civilians who voted in the referendum have been evacuated
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I just want them to be able to live their lives in peace and safety finally.
Everything happening in Ukraine since the coup is a clear proof that the only way they would be able to is the dismantling of the Maidan clique and their regime. Everyone seriously tried - Donbas, Russia, hell even fucking EU mediated in good will at first. But USA and maidan clique wanted blood and blood it is.
