Analysing 22,000 tasks in the economy covering every type of job, the IPPR said 11% of tasks currently done by workers were at risk. This could, though, increase to 59% of tasks in the second wave as technologies develop to handle increasingly complex processes.
Too bad capitalism is slowing down this development so much as I’m pretty sure we could have already reached some 10% of jobs erased if we were working towards it as a society, instead we have for now good AIs that get dumbed down as much as possible in the name of profits and market share.
Another side of this is AI as a means of production. If value is derived from socially necessary labor, AI makes a good chunk of that labor no longer necessary. This is especially true for services, and even more for those without much interaction with humans or the world. So, service-based economies will be especially disrupted as services are devalued, and the majority of service workers will see the strongest downward adjustment of wages.
But this will actually affect everyone. Not only will unemployment reduce spending, generating even more unemployment, those who lose their jobs will try to get other jobs lowering all wages, which in turn means less spending and less jobs in a loop that could cause a lot more unemployment than simply from automation very fast.
But I guess how exactly it goes will depend on what governments and the people do.
For sure, ultimately AI will end up automating a lot of human labor, and that’s going to feed the reserve army of labor in turn.