I think that’s likely as well. I doubt Russia would want to run an occupation. The rump Ukraine will also act as an albatross around Europe’s neck. They’re gonna be forced to keep pouring money into it or risk a huge immigration crisis. This is going to exacerbate the economic crisis that’s already unfolding.
Exactly. Running an occupation, which aside from being very unpopular would necessitate at least some rebuilding, lest they want a very economically and socially unstable region inside the federation. Also, that may be the reason they aren’t in a hurry right now - part “sparing the lives of their personnel”, part “attrition by vast economic superiority”, part “eh, whatever, let them implode from the inside perhaps”. If they wanted the land, they 1) wouldn’t have given the land back to Georgia in 2008; 2) started from Armenia or Belarus - why not? they’re smaller; 3) entered with 750,000 soldiers, rather than 150-190 thousand (+ some Bars/Alpha/whatever), and wouldn’t have gone through the Istanbul shtick.
One reason why we see the “conquer all Ukraine” fearmongering from the West and from Ukraine as well is to manufacture consent - this idea would perhaps force more people into giving themselves up to the grinder voluntarily.
That’s really the elephant in the room, if Russia cared about territorial conquest then they’d start with small weak states in the south that could be taken far easier. The whole trouble in Ukraine started with the idea of NATO membership, and making sure that NATO isn’t in Ukraine is still the primary concern for Russia.
I think that’s likely as well. I doubt Russia would want to run an occupation. The rump Ukraine will also act as an albatross around Europe’s neck. They’re gonna be forced to keep pouring money into it or risk a huge immigration crisis. This is going to exacerbate the economic crisis that’s already unfolding.
Exactly. Running an occupation, which aside from being very unpopular would necessitate at least some rebuilding, lest they want a very economically and socially unstable region inside the federation. Also, that may be the reason they aren’t in a hurry right now - part “sparing the lives of their personnel”, part “attrition by vast economic superiority”, part “eh, whatever, let them implode from the inside perhaps”. If they wanted the land, they 1) wouldn’t have given the land back to Georgia in 2008; 2) started from Armenia or Belarus - why not? they’re smaller; 3) entered with 750,000 soldiers, rather than 150-190 thousand (+ some Bars/Alpha/whatever), and wouldn’t have gone through the Istanbul shtick.
One reason why we see the “conquer all Ukraine” fearmongering from the West and from Ukraine as well is to manufacture consent - this idea would perhaps force more people into giving themselves up to the grinder voluntarily.
That’s really the elephant in the room, if Russia cared about territorial conquest then they’d start with small weak states in the south that could be taken far easier. The whole trouble in Ukraine started with the idea of NATO membership, and making sure that NATO isn’t in Ukraine is still the primary concern for Russia.