Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has said that he is “horrified” by the Victory Plan outlined by Volodymyr Zelenskyy the day before and announced his intention to promote the idea of EU talks with Russia.
So, Orbán probably does try to balance Brussels with Putin and similar, because he’s been in a political spat with Brussels for years.
But I have also wondered to what degree there could be more to all of his dispute with Ukraine. I don’t know to what extent, if at all, this is a factor in Hungary. But Orbán’s been associated with irredentism in Hungary.
In the aftermath of World War I, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was broken up, largely along ethnic lines. A lot of land that was part of that empire wound up in neighboring countries, not in Hungary. And it’s been a sore point with Hungary ever since.
I’ve read an English translation of a speech that he gave once that sure sounds like he wanted to take land from surrounding countries. I don’t know enough about the Hungarian political situation to know whether this is just political theater, because it’s an effective way to get nationalist support in Hungary, or whether it’s legitimately a policy aim.
Part of what is present-day Ukraine territory is in that “Greater Hungary” map, the region of Galicia (not the identically-named region in Spain).
I have wondered before whether there’s any possibility that Orbán would hope to see a major loss by Ukraine against Russia, and its dismemberment by Russia. In such a scenario, I suppose that it’s not unthinkable that Hungary could try to pick up territory.
That hasn’t been brought up by European diplomats that I’ve seen. I’m not sure that they would bring it up even if it were an issue, as it’s sensitive and might be better to just politely avoid noticing it. And I haven’t read any serious articles about it.
But every time he pulls one of these things, it does make me wonder a bit whether there’s any possibility if that’s a factor. I don’t really see a likely route to that happening, but…
It does sound like it’s a major factor in domestic political appeal, so he has good reasons to engage in political theater without aiming to actually do this:
The campaign materials of Jobbik during the early 2010s contained maps of the pre-1920 Greater Hungary.[45]
That’s the second-largest party in Hungary, after Orbán’s Fidesz, so it does kinda sound to me like it’s a significant factor domestically.
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine revived interest among Hungarian nationalists for annexing parts of Ukraine.[49]
On 27 January 2024 László Toroczkai said at a conference that his party Mi Hazánk Mozgalom would lay claim to a Hungarian-populated region in western Ukraine if the war led to Ukraine losing its statehood.[50]
That’s a smaller party, but the point is that it’s at least an idea being openly aired in the Hungarian politics.
Under Orbán, Hungary has provided non-military aid to Ukraine, but also been opposed to military aid, and been one of the most-prominent national leaders to advocate for coming to terms early in the conflict, which would probably wind up with Russia receiving favorable terms.
Unless I read something from someone like The Economist or the Council on Foreign Relations or some such publication that deals with international affairs, I’m going to assume that it’s just political theater to pander to Hungarian nationalists, and not a policy objective of Hungary. But it does sit there at the back of my mind every time Orbán says something like this.
So, Orbán probably does try to balance Brussels with Putin and similar, because he’s been in a political spat with Brussels for years.
But I have also wondered to what degree there could be more to all of his dispute with Ukraine. I don’t know to what extent, if at all, this is a factor in Hungary. But Orbán’s been associated with irredentism in Hungary.
In the aftermath of World War I, the Austro-Hungarian Empire was broken up, largely along ethnic lines. A lot of land that was part of that empire wound up in neighboring countries, not in Hungary. And it’s been a sore point with Hungary ever since.
I’ve read an English translation of a speech that he gave once that sure sounds like he wanted to take land from surrounding countries. I don’t know enough about the Hungarian political situation to know whether this is just political theater, because it’s an effective way to get nationalist support in Hungary, or whether it’s legitimately a policy aim.
Here he is wearing a scarf showing “Greater Hungary”, which includes part of various neighboring countries.
Part of what is present-day Ukraine territory is in that “Greater Hungary” map, the region of Galicia (not the identically-named region in Spain).
I have wondered before whether there’s any possibility that Orbán would hope to see a major loss by Ukraine against Russia, and its dismemberment by Russia. In such a scenario, I suppose that it’s not unthinkable that Hungary could try to pick up territory.
That hasn’t been brought up by European diplomats that I’ve seen. I’m not sure that they would bring it up even if it were an issue, as it’s sensitive and might be better to just politely avoid noticing it. And I haven’t read any serious articles about it.
But every time he pulls one of these things, it does make me wonder a bit whether there’s any possibility if that’s a factor. I don’t really see a likely route to that happening, but…
It does sound like it’s a major factor in domestic political appeal, so he has good reasons to engage in political theater without aiming to actually do this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_irredentism
That’s the second-largest party in Hungary, after Orbán’s Fidesz, so it does kinda sound to me like it’s a significant factor domestically.
That’s a smaller party, but the point is that it’s at least an idea being openly aired in the Hungarian politics.
Under Orbán, Hungary has provided non-military aid to Ukraine, but also been opposed to military aid, and been one of the most-prominent national leaders to advocate for coming to terms early in the conflict, which would probably wind up with Russia receiving favorable terms.
Unless I read something from someone like The Economist or the Council on Foreign Relations or some such publication that deals with international affairs, I’m going to assume that it’s just political theater to pander to Hungarian nationalists, and not a policy objective of Hungary. But it does sit there at the back of my mind every time Orbán says something like this.