Polling by right-leaning firms has exploded this cycle. Maybe they want to be accurate—or maybe they’re trying to create a sense of momentum for Donald Trump.
This has already been debunked, but almost all models and polling have Trump as the favorite, and this was an obvious outcome of trends that were apparent in early September. Trump, right now, is winning this election and has been for a solid five weeks and a squishy 6 weeks. You can not like it, and you shouldn’t, but pretending that Harris is winning when she isn’t doesn’t change the fact that she went from trending to winning the majority of swing states, to trending to losing the swing states, too just plain losing them over the course of two months. Not everyone has the liberty to stick their heads in the sand when it comes to bad news, least of all, a blitz political campaign when there is this much on the line.
It’s just what it is. It seems like a direct consequence of the shift towards focusing on Republican voters and courting neoconservatives: because that largely has been the focus of the campaign. It’s also not clear to me that there is time to even pivot. As fast as the news moves, it really does take almost two weeks for changes in a race to make there way into polling. Frankly, the convention and post convention campaign have been a disaster. There is no good reason to be polling this badly against someone as deeply unpopular and genuinely dangerous to democracy as Donald Trump. But Harris quite literally has pivoted away from the Democratic base to court “Moderate Republicans”, with this insane idea that some how she’ll move enough people away from Trump to win this. With ever “moderate Republican” (as if that’s even a thing) she gains, she loses two anti war Democrats.
You can’t have bipartisanship with a party that doesn’t consider humans human, and it’s central to the DNCs continuing insistence on being a right wing party, when their voters are significantly further to the left of those determining party policy. Bipartisanship with an anti-abortion party is unacceptable. Bipartisanship with a pro genocide party is unacceptable (or being one, for that matter. Bipartisanship with fascism is unacceptable. Democrats needed to have “done better” in this election cycle in the sense that they needed to take wide open the moral high round on so many issues like abortion, race and gender, freedom of speech, economic well being, health care, and genocide, and they simply chose not to.
It will be a literal miracle if Kamala actually wins enough swing states with the numbers obviously favoring Trump ( it’s not fake news, we’ve been over this, it’s just that Kamala abandoned the base to court Republicans). It will be two miracles if the campaign can also then navigate the post election court cases, since so much has been left on the table by the campaign, we can expect any wins to be extremely close.
The only other option I see is to take the advice of Vance and not certify.
This has already been debunked, but almost all models and polling have Trump as the favorite, and this was an obvious outcome of trends that were apparent in early September. Trump, right now, is winning this election and has been for a solid five weeks and a squishy 6 weeks. You can not like it, and you shouldn’t, but pretending that Harris is winning when she isn’t doesn’t change the fact that she went from trending to winning the majority of swing states, to trending to losing the swing states, too just plain losing them over the course of two months. Not everyone has the liberty to stick their heads in the sand when it comes to bad news, least of all, a blitz political campaign when there is this much on the line.
It’s just what it is. It seems like a direct consequence of the shift towards focusing on Republican voters and courting neoconservatives: because that largely has been the focus of the campaign. It’s also not clear to me that there is time to even pivot. As fast as the news moves, it really does take almost two weeks for changes in a race to make there way into polling. Frankly, the convention and post convention campaign have been a disaster. There is no good reason to be polling this badly against someone as deeply unpopular and genuinely dangerous to democracy as Donald Trump. But Harris quite literally has pivoted away from the Democratic base to court “Moderate Republicans”, with this insane idea that some how she’ll move enough people away from Trump to win this. With ever “moderate Republican” (as if that’s even a thing) she gains, she loses two anti war Democrats.
You can’t have bipartisanship with a party that doesn’t consider humans human, and it’s central to the DNCs continuing insistence on being a right wing party, when their voters are significantly further to the left of those determining party policy. Bipartisanship with an anti-abortion party is unacceptable. Bipartisanship with a pro genocide party is unacceptable (or being one, for that matter. Bipartisanship with fascism is unacceptable. Democrats needed to have “done better” in this election cycle in the sense that they needed to take wide open the moral high round on so many issues like abortion, race and gender, freedom of speech, economic well being, health care, and genocide, and they simply chose not to.
It will be a literal miracle if Kamala actually wins enough swing states with the numbers obviously favoring Trump ( it’s not fake news, we’ve been over this, it’s just that Kamala abandoned the base to court Republicans). It will be two miracles if the campaign can also then navigate the post election court cases, since so much has been left on the table by the campaign, we can expect any wins to be extremely close.
The only other option I see is to take the advice of Vance and not certify.