Kamala Harris will campaign in the Lone Star State, not because she expects to win Texas, but because she wants to shine a light on Texas’ abortion ban.

  • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    4
    ·
    6 days ago

    Democrats win with high turnout.

    Lupe Valdez’s 3.5M votes in 2018 was about the same number of votes Beto received in 2022. The shrinking gulf is largely coming from a sag in Republican turnout year-over-year. And GOP favorables aren’t so bad that the party doesn’t consistently beat Democrats in high turnout races.

    Maybe this year will be a game changer, but Dems would have to beat a 5-7 pt pad for Trump and at least a 4 pt pad for Cruz. Not holding my breath.