Current plans and policies will lead to 2.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius of global warming this century, with zero chance of limiting the temperature increase to the totemic 1.5C target agreed in Paris in 2015, according to a new report out Thursday.
We’ve known for over a hundred years and barely done anything to even slow the rate down. Not surprising.
Well lovely innit. Cannot wait for ecosystem collapse and even less snow in winter. Thinking about it this way I won’t even be able to teach my kids skiing once I have them.
It’s one of the reasons I’m considering not having kids, even though I want kids. I don’t want to create a human to grow up and live in a disaster like that.
Fwiw, it’s a very slow moving disaster. We’re already committed to a disaster and worse every day, but it’ll take years or decades to fully manifest
One horrifying article I read was talking about collapse of AMOC circulation. He was saying we don’t have a good projection of what would stop it, but there’s a chance we already have and it may take as long as 200 years for the currents to stop moving. We may have already wrecked Western Europes climate irreparably for our great grand children and we have three generations to watch it coming, knowing it’s our fault
Similar for other tipping points. We do t have a precise idea where we hit them but there’s a chance we already have but won’t see the effects for decades.
You’re correct on the long term playout, but two things I’d suggest as well.
One is that we don’t have to reach these limits to see bad things, as evidenced by what we’ve experienced even at the low end of 1 degree C. It’s an ongoing buildup with worse and worse happening, so even a bit more warming and a little slower currents could have huge impacts way before the final results.
Second is that we’re journeying into unknown territory. We can model the best we can with the knowledge we have, but this rate of change and how its occurring has never happened in the Earth’s history, so all we have to work with is science we’ve learned and try to extrapolate. Point being, we think these things might happen over a century or two, but it’s not a given. We also could experience sudden spasms as the climate shifts.
In case it makes someone pay attention, I really want to know the absolute drop dead point. It’s impossible to instantly and completely stop all manmade carbon emissions, but if we could, what is the point where that is still not enough to achieve our target limit? Have we already passed that?
Hard to say, but there’s always xkcd…. https://xkcd.com/1732/
Always an upvote for relevant xkcd
20 years ago, probably more. The environment has its own inertia, plus we’ve set feedbacks into motion that would still go on even if we stopped all we do. Our own emissions was never a large part but more of a catalyst to change the stability of the whole. Cutting it now or not long ago was too late to stop the reaction.
I think I’ve asked this before but why the hell was it so easy to come together for the ozone, but in this case it seems fucking impossible?
The ozone solution was changing one chemical for another similar chemical.
Combatting climate change will require lifestyle changes, reduced comfort of living and other sacrifices. Nobody is getting elected with those promises.
Feels low, honestly. This right wing swing everyone is going through will probably make it 4.
Honestly humanity deserves to go extinct at this point.
In case it makes someone pay attention, I really want to know the absolute drop dead point. It’s impossible to instantly and completely stop all manmade carbon emissions, but if we could, what is the point where that is still not enough to achieve our target limit? Have we already passed that?
If we all work together we can accelerate global warming!
What’s with them moving the goal posts? Remember when the media was all like “scientists say 1° will be catastrophic.” Then they were all like, “we gotta stop before 2°.” Well, we hit 2° and look what’s happened.
Next they’re gonna be all like “we’re gonna fucking die,” and I’m gonna be all like “…” cuz I’ll already be dead and people are already dying and I can’t believe we’ve done nothing. Nothing. Possibly worse than nothing in many cases. At what point are corporations, billionaires, and world leaders going to say “let’s tear down the goalposts, the game is killing everyone.”
I’m sure the answer is “never.” Whoever can leave the planet will, whoever stays will likely die. Whoever survives will be left to suffer indescribable health and ecological issues until either things cool back down enough or terrestrial humans become extinct. Even if leaving the planet isn’t a viable option, those who can afford it will continue burning coal and oil to cool their bunkers until everyone else dies.
Who cares about humans becoming effectively extinct when you can still live in relative comfort and have the most toys?
