Written before fall of Damascus, but prescient.
Maybe still unclear what happens to Allawite region.
Despite funding the coup, Israel/US influence over power may be limited other than funding an invasion of Lebanon, though still not a stable without longterm blowback operation.
Turkey/Islamist control may still be as willing to cooperate with Russia/Iran as the US. But author’s supposition of separating middle east into Sunni Jihadist and Israel rule is most likely. US does not have kingmaker power as it did in Iraq.
The US/Israel influence over Lebanon has always involved supporting its central government over Hezbollah. Hezbollah is popular where it is popular, and has parliamentary representation, and even the US favorites don’t support US over Hezbollah in terms of being pro-Lebanon/ non-treasonous/complete puppet. Its just usual US divisiveness with no carrots for Lebanon/people.