Japan’s rice stockpiles had already depleted after record-breaking temperatures affected the 2023 crop. Stockpiles shrank again last year, partly due to a rise in consumption caused by record numbers of tourists. Supplies were also hit by panic buying in the wake of typhoon and earthquake warnings, forcing some retailers to restrict sales.
More context here, this whole situation stems from a government policy issue that most media on this topic will miss.
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20240823/p2a/00m/0bu/024000c
Edit: I wonder if there’s a happy middle ground. Increase production but then the govt purchases the excess to either stockpile or sell off the excess to the rest of the world (so it doesn’t lower domestic prices too much). And by increasing the stockpile the government could also more readily adapt to market shocks like this due to climate change, extreme weather, wars, etc.
It’s not like rice goes bad either. It’s great with good storage abilities.