This theory may be wrong. Keeps getting brought up though, as if its one of the major risks of global warming.
Tropical Northern Atlantic ocean being a good 2C warmer than just 10 years ago, may well be the result of a weaker current flow north. But 2C warmer flowing slowly, is still warming TF out of northern Atlantic. Even without taking the current path, +2C temperature water is going to make the water just north of it +2C too.
Weaker AMOC theory is based on increased Arctic melting. So far, Arctic melting per season has been stable even as extreme record low sea ice volume occurs in last 2 summers. The melting is stable because there is less winter freezing.
The trend over last 2 years is record warm European winters because of record warm Northern Atlantic and Mediteranean. This theory developed during period of Atlantic cold spot 2016-2021, but it is gone this year.
The mistake in the theory, IMO, is measuring current flow rate instead of heat flow rate, including natural heat flow independent of current.
So only a partial collapse then? Neat!
Love how we are just waiting for this to happen now.
Actually we are working hard to accelerate it.
That’s the part that keeps getting missed. This all reminds of the yoyoing back and forth about whether coffee is healthy for you or not. Another damned science article on the issue. Great. Just what I needed. But the AMOC situation they always say is contingent upon action or inaction on global warming and what exactly am I supposed to think is happening to the systems? Hmm? Seems like everything is collapsing. So maybe I just might as well be fully prepared for the AMOC to straight up collapse. This groundhog day crap is getting really old. Same reason I always take a tote bag to the grocery store even if it’s not always legally required in this county - sometimes they’re out of bags, sometimes it’s legally required; might as well be equipped with a bag.
so when this happens a lot of Europe will be unviable as a place to live?
As far as I understand it luckily not. It will not be as warm, but it will not be inhospitable. Maybe or even counteracts the warming a bit. But the weather patterns will change for sure, so hard to do weather forecasts and century old behaviour patterns will have to adapt, for humans and nature itself.
Well shit, I’ve been doing my part every day in hopes of seeing this.
You’re telling me the paper straws won against me and my constant purchase of cling wrap just to throw it away.
