I agree that a loose union akin to EU would be a lot more stable. The whole point of a federal government is to solve cross cutting problems, and it’s been increasingly unable to deliver on that. The pandemic is a good example of a complete failure on the part of the federal government to provide any kind of coordination between the states. Since the states aren’t seeing the benefit of this model it’s only natural for them to start asking why bother staying in the union at all. I do agree that peaceful dissolution is highly unlikely though.