The US intelligence community produced at least two assessments based in part on intelligence provided by Israel warning the Biden administration of an increased risk for Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the weeks ahead of Saturday’s seismic attack on southern Israel, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.
That’s kinda my theory as well, his regime and Hamas are codependent on each other being willing to escalate violence to maintain their hold on power.
I believe that bibi probably thought there would eventually be some escalation that he could utilize to consolidate power, I just don’t think it was going to be quite as large or effective.