Tariffs that went on long enough would force manufacturing to be done in the US. And wages would have to rise

When the tariff is on final consumer products, these are two opposing forces. Higher wages mean companies would more likely save money by paying the tariffs. Higher tariffs mean companies are more likely to purchase domestically.

But if the tariffs are on precursor products (e.g. steel, lumber, oil, etc …) rather than final consumer goods: the tariffs make it more expensive for domestic manufacturing. The US manufacturer has to pay the tariffs to use the materials they need to produce their final product, and have to pass those costs on. That means there’s less margin for wages.

There’s been a recession start in every single republican presidential term of my life. I’m over 40. Each of Reagan’s terms. HW Bush. Each of the second Bush (these were the worst, dot-com crash and the great recession starting in 2007/8). And then the great Covid bungling. As you point out: if they implement their agenda it’s likely to happen again.

There has never been a recession start during a democratic president in my lifetime (although Biden’s term came close).

The opposition needs to be ready to jump on this and yell from the figurative rooftops so conservatives can’t spin it away. And it needs to be most heavily broadcast where the electorate shifted to the right this election. The fact that people generally think republicans are better for the economy is a severe failure on the part of the democrats.

It’s a knife, what looks like a fork, and (by process of elimination) the other must be a spoon!

Cruz’s margin (and how different it was from polling) is a shock! This was a systematic miss, I’m curious to learn the root cause once someone investigates that difference… What significant portion of the electorate was missed?

Hopefully they actually vote.

I feel like we heard this same sentiment 4 years ago, and yet here we are.

Also use a towel or cloth on top of the rubber band so it’s gentler on your hand / skin.

Why it works: this fixes the problem of poor friction; metal doesn’t grip well against skin (especially if your hand is wet or oily). The rubber band grips well against the metal of the lid and your skin (or towel).

Exposed isn’t accurate… everyone who is paying attention and cares knew this. But sadly most Texas Republicans either aren’t paying attention or don’t care (or both).

I met my wife through eHarmony. I tried the other apps available at the time (mid 2000s) and most were “profile pic & swipe” level of depth. eHarmony had a fee (so both parties were at least a little more committed to finding a partner, rather than “sign up for free account while drinking one night”). Also it had maybe 100(?) questions you had to fill out before it’d give you any matches… basically a quasi personality profile about what you were like and what you were looking for in a relationship. The result was fewer matches, but all the dates I went on were meaningful (eventually leading to ~15 years of marriage & 2 kids).

There’s now additional dating sites beyond just eHarmony that have this barrier to entry which seems similar (although I don’t have personal experience with those).

60% Local; 30% All; 10% Subscribed (still building out my subscribed list)

I enjoy her series; as well as the “What’s Eating Dan” one. The regular ATK show is okay; it’s still quality content, but the delivery feels too fake for me.

Why protect a home industry that won’t make the type of product I want? I don’t want a giant electric SUV, eHummer, Ford Lightning truck, or whatever; I want a small electric car. The models that would compete with BYD are often being discontinued by domestic producers…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt

https://www.slashgear.com/1604210/why-bmw-i3-discontinued-what-happened/

There’s still the Nissan Leaf I guess? And the ever-present promise of a cheap compact EV “coming soon” from many producers.

Use a secret manager?

Cert is a secret, add a small agent to your containers that pings your secret manager and gets back the current cert. Then saves / imports it (or whatever is appropriate).

This is not job openings, these are net new hires (all new hires minus all job quits / layoffs / retirements / whatever).

But, it’s not spread evenly by sector or geography. There are still areas with net losses.

Get a wireless charger. If your phone is less than ~6 years old it probably supports wireless charging. Can find them for as cheap as $10-15…

https://blueypedia.fandom.com/wiki/Shorts

Bluey is great for that age, I can’t recommend it enough. For brushing teeth maybe Bluey shorts?

So if the difference is corporate consolidation… Sounds like that’s the real underlying issue then, not automation.

Economics has well established that monopolistic behavior by firms harms consumers & the overall economy (that’s why we have anti-trust laws in the first place).

Don’t conflate the one problem with another, as I agree the erosion of anti-trust laws is a bad thing and needs to be reversed. But that doesn’t mean firms further automating things is now also bad.

I’d also say “automation affecting the whole economy at once” isn’t unique. The industrial revolution was not isolated to one industry, its effects were economy-wide. Also true for the transportation revolution (trains & steam boats moved everything), telecommunications, and the internet…

If you’re not aware, look up the automation paradox: https://ideas.ted.com/will-automation-take-away-all-our-jobs/

Every* automation advancement has lead to an increase in employment, not decrease. Most often jobs in the immediate sector are lost, but the rise in supporting sector jobs are bolstered.

Classic examples are the cotton mill and combine harvester. The number of agricultural workers declined, but the number of jobs processing agricultural product increased. Or with ATMs, the number of tellers needed per bank location decreased, but the total employment in the banking sector increased (banks opened more branches, namely in places where it was previously cost prohibitive).

As more things are automated, what’s being automated becomes cheaper and more prolific, often increasing (or creating) new opportunities. There are so many historic examples of this, it’s hard to justify “this time is different” predictions… Even for things like AI automating white collar jobs.

*Edit: almost every. It depends a bit on how you count the secondary jobs, and where those are located (automation combined with offshoring results in a net decline in some countries, but increase overall).

Inflation risk is more likely from a US China trade war or conflict escalations in eastern Europe or the middle east. The interest rate was a pretty blunt instrument to combat COVID induced inflation; but it’s the only one the Fed has.

I’m concerned the stock markets are already overvalued; (edit: S&P500 used for these numbers) up 17% YTD over 85% on a 5 year mark… that’s borderline bubble; throwing more cheap money at it isn’t what we need at the moment; a more cautious return to lower rates is called for in my opinion. Give the markets time to digest and use the meeting minutes to signal likely further declines.