They use the Lamda-CDM model which outputs the rate of expansion of the universe at every moment in past present and future. You measure the amount of light+matter+dark matter+dark energy that your universe has, plug those values into the Friedmann equation, and it spits out the rate.
You can try out an online calculator yourself! It already has those values filled in, all you need to do is enter the z value - the “redshift” - and click generate. So for example when you hear in the news something like “astronomers took a photo of a galaxy at redshift 3”, you put in 3 for “z”, and you see that the galaxy is 21.1 Gly (billions light years) away! That’s the “comoving distance”, a convenient way to define distance on cosmic scales that is independent of expansion rate or speed of light. It’s the same definition of distance that gives you that “46 Gly” value for the size of observable universe. But the light from that galaxy only took 11.5 Gyr to reach us. The universe was 2.2 Gyr old when the light started. So the light itself only traveled 11.5 Gly distance, but that distance is 21.1 Gly long right now because it kept expanding behind the photon.
Crucially, we are able to determine the distance by redshift via the observations of objects with known distance (like standard candles) and their redshifts. The ΛCDM model only becomes necessary for extrapolating to redshifts for which we otherwise don’t know the distance, but this extrapolation cannot be made without the data of redshifts of known distances.
That’s true! There is a kind of incestuous relationship between the cosmic distance measurements and the cosmic model. Astronomers are able to measure parallax only out to 1000 parsecs, and standard candles of type Ia supernovae to a hundred megaparsecs. But the universe is much bigger than that. So as I understand it they end up climbing a kind of cosmic ladder, where they plug the measured distances up to 100 Mpc into the the ΛCDM model to calculate the best fit values for the amounts of matter/dark matter and dark energy. Then they plug in those values along with the redshift into the model to calculate the distances to ever more distant objects like quasars, the Cosmic Microwave Background, or the age of the universe itself. Then they use observations of those distant objects to plug right back into the model and refine it. So those values - 28.6% matter 71.4% dark energy, 69.6 km/s/Mpc Hubble constant, 13.7 billion years age of the universe - are not the result of any single observation, but the combination of all observations taken to date. These values have been fluctuating slightly in my lifetime as ever more detailed and innovative observations have been flowing in.
Are you an astronomer? Maybe you can help me, I’ve been thinking - how do you even measure the redshift of the CMB? Say we know that CMB is at redshift 1100z and the surface of last scattering is 45.5 GLy comoving distance away. There is no actual way to measure that distance directly, right? Plugging in the redshift into the model calculator is the only way? And how do we know it’s 1100? Is there some radioastronomy spectroscopy way to detect elemental spectral lines in the CMB, or is that too difficult?
If we match the CMB to the blackbody radiation spectrum, we can say that its temperature is 2.726K. Then if we assume the temperature of interstellar gas at the moment of recombination was 3000K, we get the 1100z figure. Is that the only way to do it? By using external knowledge of plasma physics to guess at the 3000K value?
They use the Lamda-CDM model which outputs the rate of expansion of the universe at every moment in past present and future. You measure the amount of light+matter+dark matter+dark energy that your universe has, plug those values into the Friedmann equation, and it spits out the rate.
You can try out an online calculator yourself! It already has those values filled in, all you need to do is enter the z value - the “redshift” - and click generate. So for example when you hear in the news something like “astronomers took a photo of a galaxy at redshift 3”, you put in 3 for “z”, and you see that the galaxy is 21.1 Gly (billions light years) away! That’s the “comoving distance”, a convenient way to define distance on cosmic scales that is independent of expansion rate or speed of light. It’s the same definition of distance that gives you that “46 Gly” value for the size of observable universe. But the light from that galaxy only took 11.5 Gyr to reach us. The universe was 2.2 Gyr old when the light started. So the light itself only traveled 11.5 Gly distance, but that distance is 21.1 Gly long right now because it kept expanding behind the photon.
Crucially, we are able to determine the distance by redshift via the observations of objects with known distance (like standard candles) and their redshifts. The ΛCDM model only becomes necessary for extrapolating to redshifts for which we otherwise don’t know the distance, but this extrapolation cannot be made without the data of redshifts of known distances.
That’s true! There is a kind of incestuous relationship between the cosmic distance measurements and the cosmic model. Astronomers are able to measure parallax only out to 1000 parsecs, and standard candles of type Ia supernovae to a hundred megaparsecs. But the universe is much bigger than that. So as I understand it they end up climbing a kind of cosmic ladder, where they plug the measured distances up to 100 Mpc into the the ΛCDM model to calculate the best fit values for the amounts of matter/dark matter and dark energy. Then they plug in those values along with the redshift into the model to calculate the distances to ever more distant objects like quasars, the Cosmic Microwave Background, or the age of the universe itself. Then they use observations of those distant objects to plug right back into the model and refine it. So those values - 28.6% matter 71.4% dark energy, 69.6 km/s/Mpc Hubble constant, 13.7 billion years age of the universe - are not the result of any single observation, but the combination of all observations taken to date. These values have been fluctuating slightly in my lifetime as ever more detailed and innovative observations have been flowing in.
Are you an astronomer? Maybe you can help me, I’ve been thinking - how do you even measure the redshift of the CMB? Say we know that CMB is at redshift 1100z and the surface of last scattering is 45.5 GLy comoving distance away. There is no actual way to measure that distance directly, right? Plugging in the redshift into the model calculator is the only way? And how do we know it’s 1100? Is there some radioastronomy spectroscopy way to detect elemental spectral lines in the CMB, or is that too difficult?
If we match the CMB to the blackbody radiation spectrum, we can say that its temperature is 2.726K. Then if we assume the temperature of interstellar gas at the moment of recombination was 3000K, we get the 1100z figure. Is that the only way to do it? By using external knowledge of plasma physics to guess at the 3000K value?
That’s really neat. The more I read what you wrote, the more I was thinking this universe is a simulation.