mozz@mbin.grits.dev to politics @lemmy.world · 10 months agoWould young Americans really vote for Trump today?gelliottmorris.substack.comexternal-linkmessage-square52fedilinkarrow-up192arrow-down19file-text
arrow-up183arrow-down1external-linkWould young Americans really vote for Trump today?gelliottmorris.substack.commozz@mbin.grits.dev to politics @lemmy.world · 10 months agomessage-square52fedilinkfile-text
minus-squareprotistlinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up9·10 months agoIf your goal here is to not be surprised, I hate to tell you polls have margins of error that mean surprises are inevitable. Also, many polls are not infrequently found to be outside their SE when the actual results come in.
minus-squarejordanlund@lemmy.worldMlinkfedilinkarrow-up5arrow-down2·10 months agoAgain, you can reduce the margin of error by plotting the trend line. It’s the same science for watching climate change: If one candidate is trending up towards election day and another is trending down you can tell which way it’s going to swing.
If your goal here is to not be surprised, I hate to tell you polls have margins of error that mean surprises are inevitable. Also, many polls are not infrequently found to be outside their SE when the actual results come in.
Again, you can reduce the margin of error by plotting the trend line.
It’s the same science for watching climate change:
If one candidate is trending up towards election day and another is trending down you can tell which way it’s going to swing.