The full take is paywalled, anyone got the rest?

  • RollaD20 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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    7 months ago

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    The fundamental flaw at the core of the Biden presidency is that Joe Biden is the wrong man at the wrong place at the wrong time. This is a fact that was apparent well before his administration began, and it has been with Gaza where it has become truly calamitous. While perhaps no possible president would have handled the conflict adequately, it is hard to imagine any non-Republican who would have been worse for the moment than Biden. Since the beginning of his career in the 1970s, the president, a self-declared Zionist, has backed Israel with a consistency and fervor that has both matched and surpassed that of the country’s most hardline extremists. He has stood against efforts to put pressure on the country every time they have been tried, even repeatedly breaking with his own boss to do so. So when the most recent episode of the conflict began last October, everyone expected him to once again support Israel beyond the bounds of reason, and he did.

    Still, perhaps nobody anticipated how far Biden would go in this support. During the first few weeks, it was posited by both Biden’s supporters and many neutral observers that he was only engaging in an excessive show of support to get enough buy-in with Netanyahu to stave off the threat of a disastrous ground invasion. When that failed, the narrative shifted to say that he was simply trying to gain purchase within Netanyahu’s government to push for a ceasefire, scale down assaults, and prevent a regional war. When the temporary ceasefire collapsed, death counts skyrocketed, and Biden himself expanded the conflict on Israel’s behalf, it became impossible for even the most Biden-friendly observers to describe him as an unbiased actor. Outside of the most shameless hacks, most gravitated to an understanding of the president that I myself argued very early on. This was that his stance towards the crisis was clouded by an immense personal bias towards Israel that left him incapable of seeing things clearly.

    It was a harsh judgment to make of a president. Now, it is beginning to appear as if it gave Biden too much credit. With well over 30,000 Gazans dead and no end for the conflict in sight, many historically pro-Israel figures, governments, and institutions have reached a breaking point. Across the world, everyone from mainstream Democratic senators to former Bush officials to the U.K. Conservative Party have broken ranks and called for a new look at the country. At the same time, Biden has only doubled down on his blind support for Israel, relentlessly insisting on a policy that has been an abject failure by any imaginable standard. Absent periodic lip service that has gone constantly unheeded, there are no signs that this will stop anytime soon.

    We have now reached a point where bias alone is not an adequate explanation for these actions. As we enter the seventh month of Israel’s assault on the strip, it is worth considering Biden’s policies along the most pessimistic of all lines. Not only has he failed to stop Israel’s war, and not only is he not keeping it from expanding, but he may have already bought in to and is preparing to support a regional war—not just because he’s failing to look after U.S. interests, but because he isn’t even trying.

    To begin, I would like to return to an anecdote most of you have likely heard by now: then-Senator Biden’s meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin at the start of the 1982 Lebanon War. As the (in)famous story goes, Begin met opposition throughout the conflict from practically everyone in Washington at the time, from backbencher congresspersons to President Reagan himself. The one exception was Senator Biden, who unnerved even Begin with his enthusiastic defense of the killing of women and children during wartime. We know that Biden made these comments because Begin—who, it’s always worth stressing, was a terrorist—went out of his way to disavow them to the Israeli press. For those of us who have heard of it, this incident, showing just how deeply far Biden is and always has been gone when it comes to Israel, has been impossible to forget.

    And forget it we shouldn’t. However, there is another part of this story that is just as revealing when it comes to understanding Biden’s mindset, but has received far less attention. When Biden had his meeting with Begin, he didn’t just spend his time making the case for why the killing of civilians wasn’t a big deal. He did a seeming 180 in the same conversation, giving Begin a piece of his mind on Israel’s West Bank settlement policy. According to Begin, Biden, yelling and banging his fists on the table, emotionally denounced Israel’s colonial enterprise, even outright threatening a potential suspension of financial support to the country if their policy didn’t change. Begin arrogantly rebuffed Biden, first telling him he was constructing illegal settlements as a stand on principle and then bizarrely hinting at the potential consequences that could befall the United States if they cut off their own client state.

    Begin, as we all know, would get his way, both with the United States and with Joe Biden himself. To this day, America (outside of one highly successful initiative under President George H. W. Bush) has never meaningfully pressured Israel over its illegal settlements. As for Biden, he would undergo a complete about-face on the issue following the incident. Not only would he never again propose conditioning any assistance to Israel on any of their policies, but he would become one of the most passionate opponents of any such proposals in U.S. politics. Just watch his profoundly embarrassing 1992 speech at an AIPAC conference if you want an example of how he approached the issue. He could get intensely emotional about Israel’s right to do whatever it wants and still receive unconditional support.

    At first glance, this may appear to be a crystal-clear example of profound moral hypocrisy. If you oppose Israel’s settlement policy, as I assume every one of you do, you almost certainly do so based on moral principles that countries shouldn’t engage in large-scale enterprises of racial subjugation. Thus, it feels entirely reasonable to assume that Biden opposed Israel’s settlements for similar reasons, especially when considering that he was a spirited opponent of South Africa’s apartheid regime at the same time. What squares the circle for Biden is that he did not have the same perspective towards Israel’s policies as he did for South Africa. While he may have regarded the South African apartheid regime as simply immoral, his moment of opposition to Israel’s settlements came entirely out of a concern that they were doing more damage to Israel’s reputation than they were worth to the country. Pragmatic grounds, in other words. Not moral ones.

    This is an incredibly important distinction. Since he has entered public life, Joe Biden has never once opposed even the most despicable Israeli policies on the basis of them being morally reprehensible or even against the narrowest U.S. interests. He has only ever opposed them to the extent that they have harmed Israel’s interests. Instituting an apartheid state? Creating a settlement empire? Wantonly killing civilians? All actions justifiable by themselves, without question, merely because they’re being done by Israel. Problems only arise when such acts may rouse the tempers of the pesky international community or if they may not be the wisest application of Israel’s resources. Otherwise, they’re A-OK. From this stance, Joe Biden renders himself something far less than an independent actor governing a state in his own right. Instead, he acts as an unsolicited advisor to Israel, only judging things by how they advance Israel’s interests, liable to be overruled at will if Israel’s leaders decide differently than him.

    This is why Joe Biden immediately changed his tune on Israel’s settlement project when Begin disagreed with him. He thought that they went against Israel’s interest, but Begin disagreed. That, to him, was the end of the story. After all, who was he to tell Israel’s own prime minister what Israel’s interests were? He was just a mere Senator.

    Then a mere Vice President.

    Then a mere President of the United States.

    Biden continues to hold this line right now. Even as the most powerful man on the planet, he is unable to conceive of his relationship with Israel as anything resembling an equal partnership, much less as one where he holds all the cards. He can give advice and make suggestions, but the Israeli government shapes the contours of policy, both for themselves and for the United States. Following that, he sees his role is only to aid them in executing their policies: moving heaven and earth to send weapons and money, acting on their behalf diplomatically, and even employing U.S. military force against their enemies. Are these actions unwise? Are they failing to solve any problem? Are they harming U.S. interests to a degree not seen since the Iraq War? Yes on all counts. It’s also entirely possible that he and his administration see this for what it is.

    It’s just not what matters to them.

    Solving problems, looking after U.S. interests—these things aren’t Biden’s priorities. All that matters to him is helping Israel accomplish whatever they deign to be necessary for their own security. They have the final say, and he cannot question them. As to why this is the case, I can’t say. The most I can do is take him at his word when he says that he was deeply emotionally affected by his conversations with the likes of Golda Meir and Scoop Jackson. Perhaps he sees it as a moral obligation as a result of the Holocaust. Perhaps he was just legitimately convinced, Kyrsten Sinema-style, of the talking points shoved in his face by AIPAC lobbyists during his decades in congress. There is also a consistent issue of him just not really viewing Palestinians as human beings.

    • RollaD20 [comrade/them, any]@hexbear.net
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      7 months ago

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      In any case, it has made his stance meaningfully distinct from and even more subservient than the other ways in which the U.S. has been deferential towards Israel in the past. Only the Trump administration is a possible exception.

      This, by the way, is the reason why Biden was so keen on keeping so many of the Trump administration’s policies towards the country, from the Jerusalem embassy to recognition of the Golan Heights to the so-called “Pompeo doctrine” recognizing West Bank settlements as legal. It’s also why his Middle Eastern policy for the two and a half years prior to October 7th was a straight continuation of Jared Kushner’s initiatives. Trump’s actions fit his worldview like a glove. There’s just functionally no difference between one president with a Likudnik administration and another administration who accepts the words of Likudniks as gospel.

      It’s also for this reason that one of the seemingly bizarre recurring moments of the conflict—episodes where Netanyahu ignores Biden or does something he doesn’t like, Biden is reported to be “enraged” with him, and no U.S. policies end up changing—make perfect sense. Biden’s anger in these moments isn’t the anger of someone morally outraged or even just irked that their nation’s interests are being set back. It’s the anger of an advisor whose good-faith advice is being ignored by their superiors. He is setting U.S. policy and attempting to nudge Israel in the direction that he believes will most effectively enable them to accomplish their goals, whatever Netanyahu decides they may be. Netanyahu, of course, disagrees with him and ignores him, which sets Biden off. He probably really does think the Israeli prime minister is a pigheaded asshole. It’s hard not to. Still, none of that changes his fundamental alignment in Netanyahu’s direction. Since it would make no sense, from his perspective, to throw the baby out with the bathwater by cutting Netanyahu off just for refusing his tips, our support for the country has remained the same no matter how many times they have shown our officials the finger. At the end of the day, the president simply believes Israel is in its right to do so.

      We all know how horrific this subservience has been from a humanitarian perspective. Simply because they told him it was necessary, Israel has been allowed by Biden to raze the entirety of Gaza to the ground. He refused to pressure them on something as basic as allowing in international aid his own country has paid for, choosing to go through with several expensive, ineffective, and conceptually laughable schemes instead. This would be a historic catastrophe if Israel’s sights were only aimed at the Gaza Strip, but their ambitions are far from limited to there. Ever since the start of the conflict, Israel has been ceaselessly escalatory towards their longtime enemies across the region. They reportedly came within an inch of starting in a war in Lebanon in early October. And the more their opponents have responded with restraint, the more Israel has escalated, leading all the way to the bombing of Iran’s embassy in Syria this week. With the survival of the current Israeli government hinging on continued conflict and a seeming once-in-a-lifetime opportunity provided by two staunchly subservient major-party nominees, you would have to be blind not to see the means, motive, and opportunity they have for a regional war.

      I wish I could be less certain about what the Biden administration’s response to this would be. I wish I could weigh Biden’s insistence on following Israel’s orders against the full-spectrum calamity that an expansion of this conflict would be. I wish I could dissect the hints he made at conditioning aid he made after seven Western aid workers—seemingly the first casualties of the conflict he regards as fully human—were killed this week. The problem is that the Biden administration has already given away their stance towards a regional war, and it’s not an encouraging one.

      This doesn’t require too much speculation. For starters, CNN reported last month that the administration views a war in Lebanon as inevitable, operating on the presumption that Israeli tanks are on track to roll across the northern border within the year. To see their attitude towards such a prospect, all you have to do is look at what they’ve done since then: making no efforts to reduce tensions while moving heaven and earth to give Israel the exact resources they would need for such a conflict. Even if you totally ignore this reporting, all it takes is a little reading between between the lines of the endless platitudes about peace constantly spouted out by the White House to see what their real stance is. The administration not only willing but possibly even desperate to shift the image of the war from endless slaughter in Gaza to a fight against Hezbollah and Iran. Don’t take my word for it. Just look at what Secretary of State Antony Blinken said to justify the massive $18 billion deal selling F-15s to the country with the country:

      “It’s also about the threats posed to Israel by Hezbollah, by Iran, by various other actors in the region, each one of which has vowed one way or another to try to destroy Israel.”

      Blatant failures can bring opportunities for change. Truly blatant ones often only result in retrenchment. To the extent that the administration recognizes things have gone wrong in the conflict, they have locked themselves in. Biden’s stance of letting the Israeli tail incessantly wag the American dog has been such an abject disaster that backing away from it raises more questions than his administration would like to answer. In every other respect, things are simply going as planned. As he followed Begin on the question of West Bank settlements 40 years ago, and as he followed Netanyahu on the question of Gaza six months ago, Biden is set to continue to follow Israel’s commands, from Yemen and Damascus to Lebanon and even possibly Iran. It will take true political courage for the president to admit the enormity of this lifetime of mistakes and change course. If Joe Biden ends up demonstrating such a thing, it will be a true first.