China is winning under status quo dynamics so any significant shift requires an underlying political change, itself fueled by material impetus. Both the state and the private sector rulers benefit from the status quo. The US’ prodding is helping political development in China, namely consciousness that the US government is hostile, but it will take years for that to percolate to significant policy change via the party, barring the US doing something very stupid (don’t discount this) like giving Taiwan a bunch of nukes and air capability.