spaduf@slrpnk.net to Microblog Memes@lemmy.worldEnglish · 4 months agoMeta Hires Project 2025 Co-Authorslrpnk.netexternal-linkmessage-square54fedilinkarrow-up1737arrow-down115 cross-posted to: whitepeopletwitter@sh.itjust.works
arrow-up1722arrow-down1external-linkMeta Hires Project 2025 Co-Authorslrpnk.netspaduf@slrpnk.net to Microblog Memes@lemmy.worldEnglish · 4 months agomessage-square54fedilink cross-posted to: whitepeopletwitter@sh.itjust.works
minus-squareArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2arrow-down6·edit-24 months agoWell, this guy does keep track and the record looks pretty good. The average of several different prediction markets on 8/5/20 had odds of Biden 59.1 Trump 37.8.
minus-squaremosiacmango@lemm.eelinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up4·edit-24 months agoInteresting. Good to see data enter the conversation finally. It looks like on average, betting markets are about as good as Nate silver. They also appear to have issues with legality in the US, which limits their effectiveness as a market, and they tend to be very “vibes” based in the short term.
minus-squareArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.workslinkfedilinkEnglisharrow-up2arrow-down1·4 months agoI think that’s a good assessment of the current state of affairs.
Well, this guy does keep track and the record looks pretty good. The average of several different prediction markets on 8/5/20 had odds of Biden 59.1 Trump 37.8.
Interesting. Good to see data enter the conversation finally. It looks like on average, betting markets are about as good as Nate silver.
They also appear to have issues with legality in the US, which limits their effectiveness as a market, and they tend to be very “vibes” based in the short term.
I think that’s a good assessment of the current state of affairs.