• GlueBear [they/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    12 days ago

    No, it’s actually an excellent sample size. This study is absolutely worrying because it was conducted well.

    https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/

    This is a sample size calculator,

    Punching in 350M for population size, 2% margin of error, and 95% Confidence interval we get a necessary sample size of at least 2401, this study had a sample size of 5352

    As for their margin of error, using the above population and confidence interval values but adding in 5352 for the actual sample size we get a calculated margin of error of 1.34%

    This study is valid and its findings should worry everyone.

    • Wertheimer [any]@hexbear.net
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      12 days ago

      It’s a perfectly good sample size, you’re absolutely right, but @anarcho_blinkenist@hexbear.net raises good questions about whether it’s an appropriately random sample.

      Edit: They use weighting to put things closer to what the general population actually looks like, but here’s what their unweighted numbers are:

      • GlueBear [they/them, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        12 days ago

        Okay I see the criticism, but would the more honest title:

        approximately 47% of Americans aged 30 and older believe immigrants should be put in militarized camps

        really have changed the conclusions and implications?

        It’s fucking disgusting no matter how you look at it.

        I suppose that number might go down to 30% at best if 18-29 year olds were properly sampled.

        • Wertheimer [any]@hexbear.net
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          12 days ago

          I agree. Like, we could get the number down by asking the question a different way, too, but ultimately the issue is that ~97% of votes will go to candidates who will increase the power, reach, and budget of ICE and the military.

        • blobjim [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          11 days ago

          It’s also in how the question is phrased and so on. They’re basically goading people into agreeing with right-wing stuff in these polls.

          Here’s the actual question and results:

          Q30e. Rounding up and deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally, even if it takes setting up encampments guarded by the U.S. military

          Strongly favor 22%

          Favor 25%

          Oppose 28%

          Strongly oppose 22%

          Skipped/ Refused 3%

          and the next question “Which statement comes closest to your view about how the immigration system should deal with immigrants who are currently living in the U.S. illegally? [ROTATE]” shows that over 60% of people say citizenship (56%) or permanent residency (11%)

          which also seems to entirely contradict the previous one lol.