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Probabilistic Consensus through Ensemble Validation: A Framework for LLM Reliability
arxiv.orgLarge Language Models (LLMs) have shown significant advances in text generation but often lack the reliability needed for autonomous deployment in high-stakes domains like healthcare, law, and finance. Existing approaches rely on external knowledge or human oversight, limiting scalability. We introduce a novel framework that repurposes ensemble methods for content validation through model consensus. In tests across 78 complex cases requiring factual accuracy and causal consistency, our framework improved precision from 73.1% to 93.9% with two models (95% CI: 83.5%-97.9%) and to 95.6% with three models (95% CI: 85.2%-98.8%). Statistical analysis indicates strong inter-model agreement ($κ$ > 0.76) while preserving sufficient independence to catch errors through disagreement. We outline a clear pathway to further enhance precision with additional validators and refinements. Although the current approach is constrained by multiple-choice format requirements and processing latency, it offers immediate value for enabling reliable autonomous AI systems in critical applications.
Are you kidding me? How did NYT reach those conclusions when the chair flipping conclusions of said study quite clearly states that [sic]“The use of an LLM did not significantly enhance diagnostic reasoning performance compared with the availability of only conventional resources.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2825395
I mean, c’mon!
On the Nature one:
“we constructed a new forward-looking (Fig. 2) benchmark, BrainBench.”
and
“Instead, our analyses suggested that LLMs discovered the fundamental patterns that underlie neuroscience studies, which enabled LLMs to predict the outcomes of studies that were novel to them.”
and
“We found that LLMs outperform human experts on BrainBench”
Is in reality saying: we made this benchmark that LLMs know how to cheat around our benchmark better than experts do, nothing more, nothing else.