Yeah, I got a kick out of the whole we don’t know who the good guys were in the Russian revolution bit. Overall, it does do a good job laying out the likely scenarios. I think US splitting up into separate states is one of the more likely scenarios, surprised the article didn’t really explore that one. People are already largely divided by state, so blue and red splitting along the party lines seems very probable.
I’m not so sure about splits in the party line but states splitting up I can see. I see something closer to what happened during the Yugoslav wars than the civil war North and South divide. What broke the Union last time was a powder keg that was already ready to explode from the forming of the American union, namely slavery. This time there are alot more complicated issues between the states and the federal government and even local municipalities. I can say this, the Union cannot hold unless the federal government is willing to push it’s authority more than it already has. And this is only the political an official political level. Honestly it would be safer if the states were allowed to become completely independent of the federal government and form coalitions with other states and maintain international trade relations. It would go a long way for democracy in this country because there’s large possiblity that the whole system could be made more democratic and easier to do “Democratic Socialism”. On the other hand it’s clear a peaceful succeeding would be impossible even if they did something as radical as leave it to a popular vote and it was successful.
I agree that a loose union akin to EU would be a lot more stable. The whole point of a federal government is to solve cross cutting problems, and it’s been increasingly unable to deliver on that. The pandemic is a good example of a complete failure on the part of the federal government to provide any kind of coordination between the states. Since the states aren’t seeing the benefit of this model it’s only natural for them to start asking why bother staying in the union at all. I do agree that peaceful dissolution is highly unlikely though.
Yeah, I got a kick out of the whole we don’t know who the good guys were in the Russian revolution bit. Overall, it does do a good job laying out the likely scenarios. I think US splitting up into separate states is one of the more likely scenarios, surprised the article didn’t really explore that one. People are already largely divided by state, so blue and red splitting along the party lines seems very probable.
I’m not so sure about splits in the party line but states splitting up I can see. I see something closer to what happened during the Yugoslav wars than the civil war North and South divide. What broke the Union last time was a powder keg that was already ready to explode from the forming of the American union, namely slavery. This time there are alot more complicated issues between the states and the federal government and even local municipalities. I can say this, the Union cannot hold unless the federal government is willing to push it’s authority more than it already has. And this is only the political an official political level. Honestly it would be safer if the states were allowed to become completely independent of the federal government and form coalitions with other states and maintain international trade relations. It would go a long way for democracy in this country because there’s large possiblity that the whole system could be made more democratic and easier to do “Democratic Socialism”. On the other hand it’s clear a peaceful succeeding would be impossible even if they did something as radical as leave it to a popular vote and it was successful.
I agree that a loose union akin to EU would be a lot more stable. The whole point of a federal government is to solve cross cutting problems, and it’s been increasingly unable to deliver on that. The pandemic is a good example of a complete failure on the part of the federal government to provide any kind of coordination between the states. Since the states aren’t seeing the benefit of this model it’s only natural for them to start asking why bother staying in the union at all. I do agree that peaceful dissolution is highly unlikely though.