There’s a ton of information coming out from a bunch of different sources and it’s difficult to keep track of who’s said what and who has evidence of what. This thread is to keep track of who’s making what claims, who has what evidence, and discussion surrounding those.

For top-level comments, please separate into two categories:

Evidence (videos, facts, circumstantial evidence, etc.) that we can validate, invalidate, or provide supporting sources for

Claims (IDF, Hamas, Western media, etc.) that we can prove or disprove using current evidence

=== 2023-10-19 ===

It’s established fact that Israel was operating aircraft near the hospital, that Israel was striking targets near the hospital, that Israel had indicated that they would strike the hospital, that Israel had striked the hospital in the past, and that Israel had targeted multiple hospital staff in the days leading up to the strike.

It’s currently up to debate, but many indications suggest that Israel’s message has changed multiple times. The initial claim was that the attack was on Hamas operatives within the hospital. The claim afterward was that this was a Hamas misfire (using demonstrably falsified audio evidence).

The videos show that a single large explosion triggered whatever happened, not a sequence of smaller explosions or secondary detonations. The video circulating of a Hamas rocket “misfire” is more indicative of a MANPADS launch given multiple comparable flight paths from other MANPADS. It’s a clear usage of a multi-pulse rocket motor, something Hamas does not have domestic capability for but does have access to through Iranian MANPADS. An Iranian Misagh-2 fires a missile with less than 2kg of explosives and less than 20kg of total weight.

At this stage, my most likely conclusion is that the damage was the result of an airburst bomb.

  • zephyreks [none/use name]@hexbear.netOPEnglish
    10·
    1 year ago

    Credit to @JamesConeZone:

    Will post in the atrocities thread, but I think I’ve got a decent timeline of the hospital bombing. Please add anything that I’ve missed here

    • Friday, 13th October – IDF orders evacuation of all northern Gaza and specifically ordered hospitals to evacuate (IDF English statement on twitter | UN response)
    • Saturday, 14th October – Two attacks happen on Saturday. First, The IDF targeted the homes of three staff members, including the medical director, Dr Maher Ayyad (source). Second, the al-Ahli hospital’s cancer ward is hit by a missile at 7.30pm, injuring 4 staff members.. I think this was a warning shot.
    • Sunday, 15th October – Thousands of refugees begin to take shelter in hospitals, including Al-Ahli. Hospital officials seem to have been warned several times to evacuate the premises. I don’t know enough Arabic to hunt down or confirm these sources but Arab TV quotes an “Evangelical (Protestant?) Church in Jerusalem” saying they were warned to evacuate the hospital three times via phone.
    • Monday, 16th October – More refugees and warnings, I’m assuming. Reports continue to come out about how the hospital is overflowing with patients who have no where to go and that the hospital has no more medicine or supplies to treat them. The Episcopal Diocese of Jerusalem, who run the hospital, declare a day of prayer and fasting for Tuesday, 17th October.
    • Tuesday, 17th October – The IDF strike al-Ahli hospital with a guided missile during the day of prayer and fasting.

    As discussion of the facts continue, I really want to again emphasise that the IDF had attacked the hospital already and targeted the homes of the medical director of the hospital. Finally, al-Ahli is one of fifteen hospitals that have been attacked in Gaza since 7th Oct (source).