That poll putting Trump ahead of Biden in all the major battleground states sure looks terrifying, but there’s never been an election more clouded by the unknown than this one.
A week after Halloween and the scary monsters are still abroad in the land.
Scary polls!
Scary plans!
Boogedy, boogedy!
It was a great weekend for intellectual doomscrolling, to say nothing of galloping paranoia. First, The New York Times comes out with a poll that shows the president is trailing Fulton County (Ga.) Inmate No. PO1135809 in all the major battleground states.
I’m seeing a lot of what looks like famous last words in this thread. I just don’t know where you people get this confidence in the American people from.
I just don’t know where you people get this confidence in the American people from.
Same. 2016 and covid were just a little taste of how low we can go. I don’t doubt that it can get worse.
And it likely will, as more states ignore popular vote, and force women to either risk their lives, with sweeping bans
This, 100%. Americans were the people dumb enough to elect Trump. They haven’t changed that much in 8 years. All bets are off.
People also forget that he barely lost in 2020. Frightening.
He lost pretty convincingly. It was only 3 years ago. You don’t remember Biden voters lining up to vote early, during a worldwide pandemic, just to kick Trump while he was down.
Biden won 25 states, the District of Columbia, and one congressional district in Nebraska, totaling 306 electoral votes. Trump won 25 states and one congressional district in Maine, totaling 232 electoral votes. This result was exactly the reverse of Trump’s victory, 306 to 232, in 2016 (excluding faithless electors).[321] Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidential election in Georgia since 1992 and in Arizona since 1996,[20] and the first candidate to win nationally without Florida since 1992 and Ohio since 1960, casting doubt on Ohio’s continued status as a bellwether state.[322] Biden carried five states won by Trump in 2016: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He also became the first Democrat since 2008 to carry Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, winning one electoral vote from the state. Trump did not win any states won by Clinton in 2016.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
I was referring to the popular vote, not the sick joke that is the electoral college. He got like 48% of the 170 million-ish votes in 2020.
Why would you care about that? That doesn’t decide the election. Anyway, he lost that by 4.5% (7 million votes). Biden’s percentage (51.3%) was the highest for a challenger to an incumbent president since 1932. Trump got completely stomped.
The outside world cares, as it tells a lot about the US as a nation. Nearly half of you are batshit insane, at minimum.
I care about who the American people voted for, not an illegitimate EC win. And 7m is nothing out of 170m, he should have lost by 80% but he didn’t, hence this country is fucked.
I will never understand the proclivity to just make numbers and shit up when the sum of all human knowledge is at your finger tips.
The numbers are readily available, it’s not hard to find.
He lost the popular vote, twice, by millions.
Don’t blame all Americans.
Kind of hard for them to be last words when the election is still a year off
This. People seem to think the voting public has a memory. As ever, these early analyses are meaningless.
Polls just create talking points for media to run around with. You could easily find (or discard) data to create any narrative you wanted. Remember when Hillary was the runaway favorite? Remember when Jeb Bush was the front runner?
Just go out and vote. End of the day no matter what the early polls say. Go Vote. Make your voice heard.
Remember when Bobby Boucher showed up at halftime and the Mud Dogs won the Bourbon Bowl?
Now that’s a high quality comment.
Thank you a-very much Mr Coach Klein sir
the fact that he’s been indicted up and down the eastern seaboard has figured less prominently in the campaign than the current president’s age.
smh
There’s a certain contingent that will fervently support him no matter what happens. To these people the trials are all a conspiracy and just that much more reason they should give everything in the trailer to support their savior’s rise to the throne.
And these people are so passionate about it they probably go out of their way to vote in said polls. While most anyone else is not even answering the polls, giving this a bias.
Go vote. Help other people vote. Make sure people are registered to vote, locally and in other states via online call-banks.
Nothing else matters. Secure the vote and protect the vote.
And regularly check your voting eligibility, especially as the voter registration date draws closer. Republicans are not above purging rolls at the 11th hour.
A lot can happen in a year.
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I agree, it’s not good. For now. We don’t even know if he’ll be on the ballot in a year. There’s no need to panic at this point.
THATS WHAT THEY SAID LAST TIME!!!
heaves into paper bag
In American politics, a year is an eternity.
Still, it’s pretty unbelievable if Trump is actually running ahead at any point after everything that has happened with Jan 6, Roe, the criminal cases, getting involved with porn stars, etc. Really makes me lose faith in the US.
Tbf, regarding the last point I think you mean, “sexually assaulting a porn star.” There’s no shame being involved with an adult entertainer if all parties involved are consenting, but there definitely is when you’re sexually assaulting them (or anyone).
There’s no shame being involved with an adult entertainer if all parties involved are consenting, but there definitely is when you’re sexually assaulting them (or anyone).
Definitely. I was actually referring to the fact that millions of conservative evangelical Christians rail at “promiscuous behavior” on a daily basis but apparently give Trump a total pass on that. Despite his obvious lack of integrity and behavior that’s contrary to what they preach, he’s somehow just the type of leader they want.
He’s been accused of sexually assaulting people, but not Stormy Daniels.
Not just accused, but found liable. It’s not quite a conviction but at this point I consider it a documented fact. In other words, using words like “accused” is unnecessary and misleading. Just say he’s a rapist, because he is.
You’re right, I got her case mixed up with E. Jean Carroll’s case: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/breaking-down-the-verdict-as-jury-finds-trump-liable-for-sexual-assault-and-defamation
Hard to keep all of his transgressions/crimes straight.
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You still had faith in the US?
I did. But it has truly diminished since 2017.
yup. stupid is highly contagious. it could end up being a lot worse.
Or they could be so stupid, they don’t vote. All that talk of stolen elections eroded a lot of their voters’ trust in voting.
I think we, as a society, have got to the point where people simply don’t care about the facts any more. It’s all about feelings now. I think we’re really at a point where facts no longer matter.
Take a look at everything that Biden has accomplished, even in this political climate of hate. What is his reward? The voters telling him “We don’t care. You’re too old.”. None of his accomplishments matter. All they care about is that he’s north of 80 and therefore shouldn’t be in the White House. And they refuse to accept the fact that a vote for anyone other than Biden, or just staying home, is a de-facto vote for someone exponentially worse.
How many Palestinians, and Muslims in general, are allowing their judgement to be clouded by the Israel/Gaza situation to the point where they’re actively saying “Down with Biden, consequences be damned”? Some of them are openly willing to accept a Trump presidency simply because it’s not Biden.
The Department of Justice is basically terrified of going after Trump because of the fear of partisan politics. Not the interests of justice. Partisan politics and the court of public opinion. And these people don’t even have to worry about being voted out of office. They have deferred to Trump out of fear of the backlash, and have even charged Hunter Biden with crimes based on flimsy evidence just to say that they were “non-partisan”. The facts have not dictated how Merrick Garland has approached anything. It’s all been about the appearance of impartiality and catering to the court of public opinion.
Trump’s poll numbers continue to go up with every passing indictment and every courtroom appearance. And this is after he openly and repeatedly states his intent to dismantle government as we know it and install an authoritarian state. People are hearing about this on the daily, remembering what his first term was like, and saying “Yes, I want more of that!”. Not because the facts are on his side. In fact, quite the opposite: He’s outright telling people what the want to hear, and the actual facts don’t matter. And it’s working.
This is where we are at as a society. It’s facts vs. feelings, and feelings may very well win. It’s very difficult to argue from a position of facts when a not-insignificant part of the voting base is saying “We know about that. We just don’t care.”. Getting people to change their mind on something when their opinions are based on the facts is pretty easy. Getting people to change their mind when they don’t care about the facts and are just going with their feelings? Not so much…
Look at it this way. Trump could come out tomorrow and say that you (let’s pretend you’re Biden) have monkeys flying out of your ass that are terrorizing Washington, DC. We all know that that’s stupid and irrational (and therefore, I expect Trump to say it tomorrow). Here’s the issue with it, though. You could just ignore it because it’s stupid and nonsensical. But if 51% of the people who you need to vote for you are saying that monkeys flying out of your ass is a significant problem, then you have no other choice but to address the nonexistent monkeys flying out of your ass if you want to actually win the election. Sure, you could continue to say that they don’t exist because duh, but if the voters are really that concerned, you’ll be saying that from your campaign headquarters while watching Trump give his victory speech.
Right now, Trump is saying that an entire zoo is coming out of Biden’s ass. And people are believing it.
How many Palestinians, and Muslims in general, are allowing their judgement to be clouded by the Israel/Gaza situation to the point where they’re actively saying “Down with Biden, consequences be damned”? Some of them are openly willing to accept a Trump presidency simply because it’s not Biden.
I think the thing that really gets me about this sentiment is “Do you really think Donald Trump would’ve killed fewer Palestinians?” Killing brown people is a Republican past-time at this point. I understand being angry to the point of self-destruction if you think hurting yourself might help someone else, but this isn’t even that. It’s literally self-destructive and would make the very thing they’re mad about worse. For my sanity I have to believe this is like some tiny twitter echo chamber that the media is blowing up for clicks.
For my sanity I have to believe this is like some tiny twitter echo chamber that the media is blowing up for clicks.
Unfortunately, it is not. Check my post history, and you’ll find plenty of people who have expressed that exact sentiment. And this is Lemmy, which has, what, a fraction of a percent of the traffic that Reddit gets? It’s worse there. And look at the polling for Biden among the Muslim/Arab community. It’s virtually nonexistent. I’ve tried arguing with them using the exact same logic you did: Do you not realize that Trump would be exponentially worse? Their response? “We don’t care. Anyone but Biden.” It has got to be the purest textbook example of voting against your own best interests that I have ever seen.
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Right, this is all just more “your brain on cynicism.”
Modernism made us zealots. Postmodernism made us skeptics. Metamodernism will bring us back around to (localized) idealism, because holy shit there are way too many people in this world who lack the cognitive tools to face down that kind of nihilism.
You come off as smug and dismissive of people’s real concerns. Whether you care to admit it or not, you have to appeal to more people to win the election. You are so concerned that people won’t vote for Biden, but you aren’t concerned enough to want Biden to figure out what appeals to those people and present it to them.
but you aren’t concerned enough to want Biden to figure out what appeals to those people and present it to them.
And exactly what else is Biden supposed to present? I mean, I could post the usual list of Biden’s accomplishments during his term if you’d like, but the general concensus from his voters is largely summed up by saying “We don’t care about any of that. You’re too old.”. What is Biden supposed to do about that?
Who else could possibly come up the pike? Sanders, round 3? He’s 82. Warren? She’s 74.
If you don’t want to vote for Biden, that’s your choice. But remember that if you don’t (or if you vote third party), you’ll not only end up with someone who’s just as old anyway, but you’ll end up with someone who’s exponentially worse in every possible way. There’s no other options here. Yeah it sucks, but that’s the situation we’re in. If you think you’re going to be sending a message, understand that the only message you’ll be saying is “Welcome, President Trump!”.
And then let’s see if Trump gives a damn about what appeals to you.
Just more of the same from you. If Trump wins, at least you can be satisfied that everyone but you deserves it. No need for any introspection on your end, or from the Democrat party at all.
Most of the people who support Trump don’t even have real concerns that would lead them to vote for him. They have imaginary concerns that are so asinine that anyone with two functioning neurons can see right through them.
The polls didn’t predict the 2016 win by Trump. They didn’t predict the 2018 blue wave accurately. They didn’t predict highest voter turnout in 100 years in 2020. They failed to predict a red wave that never materialized in 2022. BUT, I’ve got a good feeling about polling in 2024!
"When looked at in historical context, what stands out isn’t that polling in 2016 was unusually poor, but that polling of the 2004, 2008 and 2012 presidential races was uncannily good — in a way that may have given people false expectations about how accurate polling has been all along.
The other factor is that the error was more consequential in 2016 than it was in past years, since Trump narrowly won a lot of states where Clinton was narrowly ahead in the polls."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
I wish my job allowed the level of reliability that Political Experts, ‘Economists’ and Meteorologists have.
There is a chance between 0 and 100 that it could rain between 0 and 100 inches tomorrow. Also it will be between 50 and 80 degrees, or maybe not. I’m getting paid either way.
Meteorology is really hard, but comparing it to politics and economics is false equivalence. Meteorology is governed by well proven mathematical models, and we can use them to make predictions. The problem is that the earth is really big, so we just don’t have computers powerful enough to simulate it finely enough. Add to that it’s a chaotic system and it becomes difficult to predict accurately very far into the future. Weather predictions have actually improved dramatically the last few decades, and I expect they will continue to do so along with advances in computing. Economics and politics may as well be random guessing, but is often worse than random guessing, because we have no reliable proven model for human behavior.
Anytime people get mad at the metrologist for being wrong, I remind them that they’re LITERALLY PREDICTING THE FUTURE.
As someone trained in statistics, I will say you have nailed this. The only ‘poll’ that has any hope of being accurate is counting the votes the day after. Even if we had good models for the complex intricacies of human behavior with respect to voting (I will correct that we do have good models of human behavior, Game Theory and Network Theory have gone a long way towards providing workable models for things) there is no way to guarantee clean input data. Garbage in, conservatives out. Pollster bias, population bias, selection bias, social pressures causing disingenuous responses. You can’t get away from any of it. Phone polling requires that people answer and actually participate, which eliminates swaths of personality types which skews your data. In-person polls have to be conducted in person, so the location choice skews the types of people who are likely to be present at the time you are polling. Even focus groups are inherently flawed as a polling methodology, but they are as close to clean as one can get. You still only obtain the opinions of people who have the time during the day to go somewhere for hours. So it is predominantly young college students between classes, stay-at-home parents while the kids are in school, people who are unemployed, or retirees looking for something to do. If it is not one of those, it is likely someone who is doing the focus groups to make ends meet and the repeated use of the same people for different polls often leads to other forms of data contamination.
Bottom line, don’t trust polls. If you aren’t doing them, likely the demographics that you represent are not doing them either.
Another issue that affects how accurately weather models are seen is a difference in what they output and what is reported. The output of the models is a series of 2D maps of various variables and how they change over time and space. The models will predict that conditions will form for cloud formation and will lead to precipitation at a certain point. They are pretty good at predicting that part. Where it starts to get less accurate is determining where those things will happen and when with specificity. They’ll be pretty sure that there will be rain from this particular system, but it might move north of city x, go right over it, or go south of it.
So that 40% chance of rain is actually “99% chance it rains, but 39.5% chance it rains here and 59.5% chance it doesn’t rain here but somewhere else nearby instead”.
My appreciation for what they do increased after I started using windy.com, which gives the map of predictions over time instead of “here’s what will happen in this city”.
Oh and weather patterns can be smaller than cities, too. That 40% chance of rain could even mean “40% of the city will be rained on”. On cloudy days, you can often look around and see rain in the distance in various directions around you, sometimes it passes over you sometimes it doesn’t.
That 40% chance of rain could even mean “40% of the city will be rained on”.
Right, that’s exactly what it means, by my understanding. A weatherman can’t predict the chances that a particular individual will experience precipitation, but that’s what the average person immediately thinks when they look at a weather forecast.
What a weatherman can do though, is predict how much of a particular area may experience precipitation, based on measurable things like cloud pattern shape and size, wind speed and direction, geography, etc. Once you realize that, it’s actually kind of intuitive that precipitation chances are reported as “percent of an area that will experience precipitation”, and not “percent chance that I will experience precipitation”.
Polling errors happen. Even a 95% accurate poll is bound to be wrong 1 in 20 times. This poll is such a massive outlier that the prudent thing to do is wait for more polling.
That said, I don’t doubt that Americans feel grumpy right now and they’re blaming the incumbent. I do cautiously doubt this degree of grumpiness amongst these demographic groups.
Agreed. A lot of people are grumpy about how he’s handling the Israeli/Hamas War. A lot of people were also grumpy about how he handled Afghanistan. Only one of these two things is still in the public zeitgeist, however…
It’s a full year out from the actual election, and I don’t expect either of these two things will be generally remembered at the polls next year.
I seriously doubt the pull out of Afghanistan and the support of Israel is causing voters to prefer Trump in battleground states. Especially Afghanistan, which literally no one is talking about anymore. Maybe Israel policy has an effect, but I suspect pro-Palestinian sentiment is sadly pretty low outside of the Lemmy bubble.
People are pessimistic about inflation, the economy, gas prices, affordability and all the bummer news in general. They blame the president. “Feelings” about the economy are one of the most reliable predictors of presidential elections.
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He won the first time in no small part to folks that considered both sides the same and wanted to see it all burn. Lets hope they learned their lesson.
Narrator: They didn’t
Fascism doesn’t follow the rules, and neither do the leaders or mobs that push them to power.
Don’t make the mistake of believing the reasons people give for supporting Trump over Biden are their actual reasons. Biden’s age, in particular, is approximately nobody’s reason for opposing him; it’s an excuse they give, or maybe a reason they think will persuade others. You won’t persuade anyone by debunking an argument they never cared about in the first place.
How were people reached to poll them? Is this a phone poll? How many people under 65 do you know that answer the phone to unknown numbers, and also are willing to answer loaded questions for 10 minutes?
Of the people that do answer the phone and answer, what candidate do you imagine they’d vote for?
Yep, without methodology, numbers are just lies, damned lies, and statistics.
I got called and picked up and then promptly hung up, I’m voting for biden
I like to answer like 2 questions taking a long time and answering " don’t know," and then decide I don’t want to do the poll after all.
I’m concerned about the poll, but not freaking out like some seem to. The fact of the matter is that we’re still a year out, and there are still a lot of unknowns. I think Trump’s numbers will erode as the public sees more of him (because he’s be relatively quiet since 2021), and they will be reminded why they don’t like him. That’s not even taking the trials into account, which I think will further erode his support.
Where I’m concerned is not that these people who leave Trump aren’t going to Biden; they’re either not going to vote or go for a third party. While it gets the job done, it leaves less margin for error because there will probably be less Democratic turnout.
Trump doesn’t get the over saturation that the rest of politicians seem to get. I don’t know why that doesn’t apply to him. The more he is in the news, the better he polls.
Wait for the attack ads. The Dems better take the gloves off and keep showing that trump tried to overturn the 2020 election.
Attack ads work, they make prospective voters stay home on election day. The Dems need to use them aggressively this time.
I think Trump’s numbers will erode as the public sees more of him
How much more could he show? Everyone knows who he is.
Everyone knows who he is, but he’s been normalized and relatively quiet for a few years. As there gets to be more coverage, I think some of the Biden 2020->Trump 2024 or Nothing 2020->Trump 2024 voters will just not vote out of disgust because they’re reminded what he’s like. This is more of a vibes thing. They haven’t felt Trumpy vibes, so they don’t remember what he’s like (at a visceral rather than intellectual level). I think a lot of people saying they’ll vote for Trump now have some rose-colored glasses about his behavior.
Look, we are all still traumatized from 2016. And this shit is still way too fucking close.
Ten people at the party took a vote to see what to eat. Six people wrote “pizza” and 4 people wrote “the dog.” This is US politics.
Shit, after 2016 I just stopped paying attention to polls all together. I veiwed them as flawed even before 2016. After? Shit man I might not even be living in a democracy tomorrow, a pollsters opinion on who might win an election a year from now is interesting but post 2016 it’s something I refuse to loose sleep over.
I’d sooner believe he’d get 22 percent of the votes from pixies, elves, and the Tuatha de Denaan.
This author is a mad fool! The fey embrace chaos, they would surely surely love a 2nd Trump administration.
Nah. They’d vote for RFK Jr.
