• ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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    7 months ago

    In full seriousness, beyond posturing and making an ideological statement, how will the Houthi Movement enforce this blockade in any way? They have no navy, no modern anti-ship missiles, no naval Air Force, or any meaningful way to affect shipping in the Red Sea without getting wiped off the face of the Earth by UN anti-piracy naval and air forces in stationed in Djibouti.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOP
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      7 months ago

      They’ve already been using drones to harass Israeli affiliated ships and even seized one. They don’t have to be able to completely stop shipping, just to make it riskier and more expensive to do. That puts direct economic pressure on Israel. There’s a good article talking about this in more detail here https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/14235

        • davel [he/him]@lemmygrad.ml
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          7 months ago

          There are publicly available databases on ships with pretty detailed information, including their travels. For a fee there are services that provide cargo information as well.

            • redtea@lemmygrad.ml
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              7 months ago

              I imagine a certain amount had to be public so the west knows who’s ducking sanctions and can prevent import tax evasion, etc.

              Edit: meaning it’s catch 22. Hide the manifest and not be able to dock anywhere. Or makeb it public and let your enemies know what you’re carrying.

              Also, it might be the export countries who log the data to show everyone that they’re being honest?

              • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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                7 months ago

                No, I just meant remove the manifests from public view.

                I am sure that shipping authorities already have that information, they’re not going to random sites for it.

                • redtea@lemmygrad.ml
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                  7 months ago

                  Oh, I see what you mean. It could easily be shared on a need to know basis. I imagine that there’s money in it somewhere. Wouldn’t be surprised to find that the ports sell the information and the ships can pay like $15/month to l for privacy but want to saveb the cost lol

                • notceps [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                  7 months ago

                  Ships generally have to broadcast a bunch of stuff, like name, from where to where, number of crew etc. constantly while at sea, so all anyone really needs is the ability to receive broadcasts and they can receive those messages and figure out which ships to hit. If a bunch of ships are sending their info but this one isn’t you can also assume that that ship is trying to do shifty things so. Besides if they have a lot of people looking at it they can track ships from further away than just right off their coast.

            • davel [he/him]@lemmygrad.ml
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              7 months ago

              It’s already a logical leap to assume Ansar Allah is using manifest data, before getting to the hypotheticals of shutting down those data services.

    • immuredanchorite [he/him, any]@hexbear.net
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      7 months ago

      I think the a major component of the blockade is that one they begin to capture or burn ships, the insurance rate goes way up. Once the ships become even slightly more costly the margins go down. Once it is even possibly unprofitable to use the straight, they will have effectively created a blockade.

      • redtea@lemmygrad.ml
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        7 months ago

        Plus, investors are fickle as anything. The slightest whiff of this isn’t safe and it’s off. They might take a risk on something with a massive potential profit. But many (most?) ships aren’t carrying that kind of thing. That’s not the kind of risk that investors don’t mind gambling with.

      • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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        7 months ago

        With what? They have no naval military craft at all, zero. The most they have is drones, though they have been noted to be useful only with harassment engagements.

        Also they absolutely do not have free reign over the Arabian and Red seas. That is one of the most high defended areas in the world, with anti piracy operations from UN nations constantly patrolling, destroying, and capturing pirates and smugglers. The Chinese, Americans, Russians, French, and British all have their own naval base and airfield in Djibouti for the express purpose of supporting those operations. Plus air and naval assets from dozens of UN countries.

        Bab el Mandab??? You’re kidding right? I’m sure trying to capture or destroy a ship 25 meters away from the combined naval and air assets of nearly 45 countries is going to go well.

          • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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            7 months ago

            That’s just an intricate way of saying, “I have no clue, but trust me”.

            We can only hope, but I am not to optimistic about their chances at all.

            • الأرض ستبقى عربية@lemmygrad.ml
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              7 months ago

              You are underestimating the Yemenis. It is the Afghanistan of the Arab world. If the US gets involved there, it will make Iraq seem like a cake walk.

              Just consider what they did with one tweet: https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1728421437570998366

              Zim (NYSE: ZIM), whose stock hit a new all-time low Monday, is the most visible of the Israeli shipping companies and the most closely connected with the government. The government of Israel has a “golden share” or “special state share” in the company that ensures the government’s access to Zim’s fleet “in a time of emergency or for national security purposes.”

              https://www.freightwaves.com/news/zim-container-ship-diverts-as-threat-to-israel-linked-vessels-mounts

              • redtea@lemmygrad.ml
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                7 months ago

                The big question is what does Israel do during the hostile takeover of all its major companies when Palestinians use the windfall from hedging against the Israeli economy to buy controlling interests in Israeli companies whose shares plummet in value because Palestine’s allies are using topiary to keep that hedge in the shape of a giant keffiyeh?

              • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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                4 months ago

                What was my view? That I can’t tell the future? I was just wary of almost looking like a Ukraine lib and making insane claims about what Ansar Allah could accomplish.

                I’ve been very happy and surprised with the progress that Ansar Allah have made though! I’m a lot more optimistic about their long-term prospects now! It’s still very early though, but at least their efforts are making strides!

        • DankZedong @lemmygrad.ml
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          7 months ago

          I just checked the bases on Google Maps. Wild how they aren’t blurred lol. I could even count US airplanes there from my lazy couch.

          • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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            7 months ago

            It’s a bit silly because you’ll check out the area surrounding the capital, and it’s just normal farmland, rural areas, and minor infrastructure, then out of nowhere…

            CHINESE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY.

            Or a random airport in the middle of the desert that seems inconspicuous enough… then you realize the terminals are lined up with Reaper drones.

            • DankZedong @lemmygrad.ml
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              7 months ago

              Nothing beats scrolling through the same farmland to suddenly seeing PIZZAHUT SUBWAY PLANET SMOOTHIE and you realize you’re in a US Air Base.

              • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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                7 months ago

                Don’t forget the two separate bars. And the “small laundry”, and literal shopping mall so that airmen can go shopping after some bombing runs.

                The US is a joke.

                Also wow, we were talking about two different airports lmao. I think I stumbled across the US drone base further inland. The one by the coast is the major base.

                Also love how they leave all those Ospreys out baking in the African sun, then get surprised when they break down.

                It is a bit surreal though to look at the pier and see a bunch of US Navy, PLAN, and Russian navy ships all moored next to each other or tied to one another.

      • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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        7 months ago

        You’re being very liberal with your definition of “helicopters and small ships”, those are small civilian craft. Not Mi24’s and corvettes.

          • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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            7 months ago

            That was a pretty impressive operation, though again they had the element of surprise because no one expected the movement to begin raiding ships.

            Plus overpowering 25 crew members who all have no combat experience or any weapons is a bit lopsided.

            • Who will stop them?

              The Saudis and Emiratis who spent 6 years losing to them, or Israel that can’t defeat Hamas or Hezbollah, or the US who is running out of weapons? The Yemenis want to bait the US-Israel into a losing war with them.

              “Israel ready to act against Houthi rebels if international community fails to, national security adviser says” https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/09/middleeast/israel-houthi-yemen-warning-intl-hnk/index.html

              • ComradeSalad@lemmygrad.ml
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                7 months ago

                The UN defensive force that I referred to earlier. That’s the entire point of that task force… to protect shipping in the Red and Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean. They don’t need to exterminate the Houthi Movement, they will just more closely keep an eye on shipping as it passes through the strait.

                That’s already what’s been happening, as there have already been news stories of US, French, and Chinese ships downing missiles being fired from Yemen, and air patrols have been increased.

                • الأرض ستبقى عربية@lemmygrad.ml
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                  7 months ago

                  Okay, but what for-profit shipping company would take the risk? How much damage do you think the Yemenis can do to all the world’s navies gathered? None at all? Maybe check with USS Cole.

                  I think the best response here, is to just ask you to watch it play out. You may be surprised.

    • I’m Arab and supportive, and sometimes use it. The term isn’t racist, there’s no racial significance to it. They do prefer the term Ansar Allah and I think we should use it. While some use the term Houthis to delegitimize them, I have seen supporters use the term as well, it is named after their leaders, Hussein and Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.

      I want to stress that we should use the official name, or simply refer to them as the government of Yemen, but it is wrong to assume that the term is purely pejorative specially when used here.

      • Rafidhi [her/هي]@lemmygrad.ml
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        7 months ago

        Salaam 🫡

        They’ve emphasized for many years now that they don’t use this term but it’s so normalized that even some friends use it too which is sad. Everyone disrespects the Yemenis. Lots of Muslims and Arabs use the term and we shouldn’t be using it either. Maybe racist isn’t the right word. I dont know. Seems racist that they don’t get respected enough to even be allowed to name themselves.