Polling in all 27 EU member states, combined with modelling of how national parties performed in past European parliament elections, shows radical right parties are on course to finish first in nine countries including Austria, France and Poland. Projected second- or third-place finishes in another nine countries, including Germany, Spain, Portugal and Sweden, could for the first time produce a majority rightwing coalition in the parliament of Christian Democrats, conservatives and radical right MEPs.

The authors called on policymakers to examine the trends that are driving current voting patterns in Europe and to develop clear narratives that address the necessity of a global Europe in an increasingly fraught and dangerous geopolitical climate.