Poll headlines like this miss so much information. Looking at this, it makes you think that the Tory vote has moved to Labour en-masse. When you look at the data tables the Tory vote has gone to 4 places.

1. Labour
2. Don’t know / Won’t Say
3. Won’t vote
4. Reform UK

I think Don’t Know and Won’t Vote Tories are people who recognise how bad things have become, but can’t bring themselves to vote Labour. I’m not convinced they’ll stay where they are, and could fall back blue. The Won’t Say are shy Tories without a doubt. All of those people are excluded from headline figures and that distorts the picture.

The Reform UK vote is dependent on candidates standing and those will definitely go blue as a fall back.

Labour’s increase has a massive component of people who didn’t vote in 2019. Some of that will be people who were too young to vote (and I wish polsters would separate that out), but it’s too big to be totally explained that way. That support could end up being softer than polls suggest. They have to actually vote.

I think Labour will win, but I’m expecting it to be a lot closer fought than the polls suggest from their headline figures.