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Cake day: April 9th, 2022

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  • I do like to remember that, as Revista Opera said in this article, in little over a century of republican government, only one coup attempt was backed by the US. To think that a coup’s viability is determined solely (or largely) by US’ help is being ahistorical.

    But, to follow the military is a good indicator. I’d like to point to how a few days ago, Estadão, a liberal rag, had the headline “Winners’ takers, military high command says” (here). The wording is weird. Like, “we’ll respect the vote”, but that does not exclude a putsch after the election, either Lula or Bolsonaro’s way.

    So, it might be a little bit too crazy on my part, but if something is to happen, it’ll be in January.

    In any way, we’ll have our work doubled, even if Lula takes the W. The right-wing is now loud and proud, so is our militant duty to show in the streets, practice our political views in the materialist sense and to curb neofascism.


  • I do believe your analysis is correct. It isn’t a full out war, 'cause if it was, really, shit should’ve hit the fan a few months ago.

    I do, though, believe that in almost every way, Russia is in a better position than anything the imperialist core can cook:

    • They are sitting in one of the world’s biggest gas reserves, with some “moral higher ground” bullshit foot-gun sanction logic from Europe, with China and Turkey taking gas a dime a dozen cubic meters;
    • The NATO countries aren’t willing to help Kiev with winter gear for the coming months, not even sparing a thousand tents;
    • Started a process of de-dollarization, if not for the world, for India and other China neighboring countries. This starts to show the cracks in the imperialist core;
    • They got some of the most coveted weapons from NATO for free, getting intelligence from then, while saving some of the most crucial military equipment protected, such as radars, those fancy planes and the like. They even start showing those new bombs, like that hypersonic missile;
    • Russia did secure, finally, Crimea in a decisive manner, and the other oblasts too. Not only a victory for their people, but the chernozion soil around the region is prime realstate;
    • With the amount of money Europe, the UK and the US of A lent to Ukraine, they’d be lucky if Zelensky pays up a tenth of the original sum in the next decade, with a huge default risk;

    So, I do believe that we have two scenarios:

    1. Russia leans on General Winter and just starts taking more ground, while morale is low, money and fuel is short and Kiev is unable to repair any infrastructure in a timely manner;
    2. Russia just takes whatever they already got. The campaign is deemed a success, no armistice is signed since anything from Kiev is just a fever dream and it stays like Crimea in 2014.

    Again, Putin is not an ally of the proletariat in any way, shape or form, and saying so is either opportunistic or naïve. What he is doing is protecting the Russian bourgeoisie’s interests first. This does, however, help to some extent the return to a multipolar world, making the imperialist nations squabble.