I don’t completely agree with Mav on inflation, but, he provides some useful content.
In contrast, Snider argues compellingly that bank reserves are not money, there is no inflation, and actually deflation.
He has done a similar show for Rebel Capitalist, crypto channels, but he’s more or less saying the se thing.
The collapse of the China housing market ponzi is defintely globally deflationary, but may manifest as nationalised debt default and data manipulation.
Fed Guy, Joe Wang(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6Leb2WhEoA), offers a nuanced ex-fed worker position:
https://fedguy.com/two-tiered-monetary-system/
https://fedguy.com/can-banks-spend-their-reserves/
Suggesting rate hikes could nudge “inflation” higher, but are we really talking about inflation? What would inflation Jesus Milton Friedman say?
Another nuanced view from a trader perspective Alfonso Peccatiello:
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/qt-explained
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/japan?utm_source=url
My take is that, the bank reserves are used to buy securities from primary dealer banks (the very big famous international banks) who extend credit through loans to non-bank financial institutions (NBFI, i.e.: pensions and insurance provders) and NBFI use that credit, which is actual money, to buy assets, and by doing so, they contribute to inflation. There are regulatory and contractual reasons why some things like negative-yielding debt like government treasury debt (i.e.: bonds/gilts) are bought, but they have to offset losses by buying growth in the form of assets like equities and land.
So, i think Snider right about a lot of things, but maybe more in the longer term sense, and through adding more detail and nuance to short-term activity. Snider’s point that the majority of the dollarsphere is outside the USA and beyond the influence of the Fed, but, offshore dollars are not exactly the same as onshore dollars. We can see very clearly that 10-year bond yields are rising without anything done on interest rates, which shows that the Fed just follows the bond market, they don’t direct it. They have no meaningful tools to that effect. All the Fed can really do is fuck everything up by trying to pretend that they can control things, and that they know what they’re doing, both of which are false. Inflation, even the fake CPI tells you something about the past, and the bonds tell you something about the future. For all Mav’s talk of inflation, the main indicator is the rising bond yield, without that, it really is all about politically-driven lockdowns fucking up the supply chain system, in concert with central banks fucking up the monetary system.
Both would benefit from Rapid Onset Late-Stage Urgent Post-Natal Abortion of their persons with significant control.
This is a really interesting and well researched post that is formatted like weird spam. :P
Have some normal spam then.
