Carlos Pereira noted that BRICS "is consolidating global politics and the hope of the Global South as a key player"
  • BynarsAreOk [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
    24·
    15 hours ago

    I want to be optimistic about this but its quite improbable that China is willing to die on the Cuban hill out of nowhere for little gain when they’re currently giving up on the arguably far more important(materially if not ideologically important) Russian hill e.g they’re letting US sanctions on Chinese banks affect trade with Russia.

    We’ll see but I smell they’ll do something like honorary member or some shit and give marginal diplomatic or whatever benefits, maybe disguise it as foreign aid or something.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOPEnglish
      31·
      15 hours ago

      The reality is that the US is already in an open trade war with China, and it’s only going to escalate. Doing trade with Cuba is gonna be no different than doing trade with Russia from China’s perspective. Chinese trade with Russia has exploded since the war started.

    • BashfulBob [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
      27·
      15 hours ago

      Even within the US itself, the resentment aimed at Cuba is reserved nearly exclusively by Cuban ex-pats (who have been wallowing in fascist propaganda for half a century) and the state security services (who continue to resent Cuba as a gaping hole in the Caribbean security perimeter and an enormous black mark on their history).

      Mainstream Americans have no real skin in the game. Cuban foreign policy doesn’t crack the top ten policies most Americans care about. And the generally positive pressure around Cuba as a resort location and a luxury brand has left the average tourist-brained American envious rather than hateful.

  • SoyViking [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
    41·
    18 hours ago

    Where did this application fall on the “just a diplomatic formality announcing something that is going to happen soon” to “the first beginning of a long and arduous process where nothing is guaranteed” scale?

    Is this Sweden wanting to join NATO or Ukraine wanting to join NATO?

    • combat_doomerism [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
      26·
      17 hours ago

      BRICS kinda plays stuff close to their chest, I assume the current members have to vote to let new members in but I’m not sure if it’s simple majority or up to needing to be unanimous, if I had to guess China Russia and Iran would vote yes but I’m not sure how the others would vote.

      If they do get let in I think it would signal a momentous shift in the organization, its alignment would be much more explicitly anti-west by snubbing the United States like this.

      • SoyViking [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        16·
        16 hours ago

        I also think South Africa would look favourably on the Cuban application, given Cuba’s role in supporting the struggle against apartheid.

      • BashfulBob [none/use name]@hexbear.netEnglish
        14·
        15 hours ago

        Cuba is a rich nation when its borders are open. And with all the sanctions flying around from the US, I can see a point at which you can do business between Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Russia, and China without ever touching an American market, simply because so much shit has been added to the sanctions list.

      • CarmineCatboy2 [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        11·
        15 hours ago

        Currently, a country declares itself interested in joining BRICS at which point there’s a process of consultation between the chair of BRICS (who talks to the interested party), the foreign ministers of BRICS (who talk to their own leaders) and then the heads of government themselves. With the latter you need to build a consensus towards extending an invitation. Once that happens the country joins as soon as its leader chooses to. It’s also not like the original 5 are BRICS’ security council. The consensus includes all 10 members.

        Ironically, had Milei let Argentina join he could play a spoiler and deny Cuba entry.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOPEnglish
      92·
      20 hours ago

      Indeed, one of the rules of BRICS is that countries cannot sanction one another. This would open Cuba to unfettered trade with the biggest economic bloc in the world.

      • DefinitelyNotAPhone [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        83·
        19 hours ago

        The actual mechanisms of the Cuban blockade are that any ship/shipping company that trades with Cuba is banned from American ports for the next 6 months. If BRICS is openly inviting Cuba in, that means that a meaningful chunk of the economic bloc’s logistics companies feel comfortable effectively never dealing with the US, which has massive implications for global trade going forward.

        • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOPEnglish
          53·
          19 hours ago

          Indeed, and I think this is possible because BRICS is already a bigger trading bloc than G7. It’s also where most actual manufacturing happens. So, if the US continues its policy then US companies will end up in far more pain than the respective BRICS companies. Incidentally, it’s the same dynamic that we currently see playing out with sanctions on Russia where most of the pain is being felt in Europe.

        • GoodGuyWithACat [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
          37·
          18 hours ago

          I don’t know enough about Chinese business to be sure, but theoretically they could make “The Sino-Cuba Shipping Company” that handles all direct trade with Cuba and could sideline that rule.

        • anarchoilluminati [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
          26·
          18 hours ago

          Or maybe they’re calling US’s bluff? I doubt the US would continue the embargo and sanctions if it devastated its own economy as a result.

          Regardless, this is great news and I hope Cuba gets admitted and treated as it should!

  • tripartitegraph [comrade/them]@hexbear.netEnglish
    38·
    18 hours ago

    let out an involuntary “oh hell yeah” Really hope this can help to ease some of the pressure from the US’s boot on their neck, and excited for the longer-term consequences this could have

  • TrippyFocus@lemmy.mlEnglish
    44·
    19 hours ago

    Great to see! Finally some light at the end of the tunnel of suffering caused by the blockade.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOPEnglish
      16·
      15 hours ago

      The relationship between India and the US has been pretty rocky since the war in Ukraine started actually. India sees itself as a sovereign power, and the US is not capable of treating other nations as equals. My expectation is that India will continue refocusing on the BRICS and the relations with the US will likely continue to cool going forward.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.mlOPEnglish
      37·
      19 hours ago

      The US is already in a trade war with China that’s only escalating. The most immediate impact would be that the US could block Chinese companies trading with Cuba from access to their market.

      • LeZero [he/him]@hexbear.netEnglish
        9·
        17 hours ago

        Sure, but according to this, US-China trade in 2023 represented around 575 billions $ worth of goods (of which US goods produced in China wouldn’t be immediately impacted I suppose). I guess it would depend on who gets hurt more, China or the US at the end of the day but it could have huge consequences for both countries