Think of Al Aqsa Flood like historians think of the Tet Offensive in Vietnam. In the short term, it was a failure for the Viet Cong who failed to topple the Southern govt, and in turn suffered debilitating losses because the fighting was against the Viet cong’s usual guerilla doctrine. However, this offensive was a strategic victory because it was a signal that the north was willing to continue fighting even against the odds of a stalemate, which drew the American public to turn against a war that peace wouldn’t be on American terms.

Israel now faces the same existential odds. Netanyahu thought Gaza could be crushed in isolation, and as such gave Hamas the opportunity to attack. He did NOT expect Hezbollah to start shelling the northern settlements the next day, nor did he expect Ansar Allah to blockade the red sea, nor did he expect Iran to retaliate directly rather than via a proxy. Suddenly there is a real prospect of a war that cannot be won, and at every stage his ear cabinet declared that a final resounding shock-and-awe campaign could finally end the fighting on favourable terms.

Even if Gaza is wiped out, which it will NOT despite their best efforts, Hamas has set in motion the first real path towards an Israeli defeat since its inception. The clock is ticking.