I want to clarify that I don’t personally think the US establishment elite actually wants china to invade. I don’t think they would intervene if china attempted reunification, just like they didn’t intervene for Ukraine, a country they have actual, signed written documents stating they would intervene to protect, unlike Taiwan, a country they don’t even recognize as real.

What I think the US is doing here, is betting on china extending sanctions on Taiwan. They want to goade them into extending them through these actions, maybe even goading them into completely decoupling Taiwan from China, in the form of Cuba style sanctions. It’s incredibly hard to decouple Taiwan from China as it is now, because Taiwan is a small island country, right next door to a massive economy in china, they naturally are going to be very dependant on them, regardless of politics.

But, from what I think the US long term goals are, they think they can decouple Taiwan from China by goading china into doing it themselves. This will make the island more reliant on the US. The they can open the door to yank boots on the ground on the island, and western recognition of the government. Basically, they want a Cuba-US situation, but with Taiwan as Cuba and them as the USSR. If this all goes to plan I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a Cuban missile crisis scenario years down the line where the US attempts to put missiles on the island to “protect democracy”. They obviously can’t do this now, because Taiwan is very dependant on china, and china has made it clear that military intervention isn’t off the table. But in maybe a decade, when china has isolated the island further and further and Taiwan has become more and more reliant on the US, maybe a taiwanese government completely captured by US interests might make a move to call for US troops and weaponry in the island, and maybe a certain “international community” might call for that as well in the face of a “brutal and inhumane blockade of the democracy of Taiwan by china”.

Of course, all of this goes kaput if the US keeps calling their bluff and china does end up invading, like Russia. Or, china cools down and doesn’t try to further isolate the island. In the end, I don’t know anything, just rambling.