I was a strategic miscalculation from the beginning and then rotten Russian elite decided to “make peace” and “showed good will” by withdrawing forces from Kiev which resulted in nazis massacring people in those regions. Now the don’t have other option but to do what needs to be done aka eliminating Ukraine as a state.
However, since Russia is not at war officially, the forces are severely limited, moreover nazis destroy everything they leave, however, looking at the situation, right now time is on Russian side with EU struggling and it’s not even autumn yet.
Is it? My reading was that Russia attacked Kiev to pin down and focus the Ukrainian army there, which allowed them to move in the Donbass region more easily.
No. They thought it would be easy win and got into a trap. They did not even bother to clear and fortify rear. Because of that, many people died.
The plan was the same as with Georgia in 2008 with same people staying in government only without teeth.
I always wondered why do they show ‘‘mercy’’ on Ukraine, didn’t they already crossed every line for that? Until that point, Kiev was very close to being 100% surrounded from all sides and to fall, it would be over until now if they continued, wonder if northern front will be started again soon.
Also, so now the goal is eliminating Ukraine as a state, I thought it will just be annexing half of it and change the government in what’s left of it in western part.
First, taking such big of a city is not easy. You either siege it, waiting for surrender, causing incredible atrocity for civilian population or take it in a street fight which basically means widespread destruction and even more atrocities.
Not to mention Russia never wanted to take Kiev back then, just a single look at engaged forces would tell you this - it was strategic feint to divert Ukrainian army - don’t forget Ukraine have constant numerical advantage, and early in the war it was even more, and they did not lost most of the equipment back then.
No idea, i was wrong about the war starting in the first place. I guess by now it is foremost political, than economical and only on the last place a military conflict. USA and their vassal EU declared a total economical warfare against Russia - they pulled out from nothing. But they made a mistake with military part, as it is the strongest side of modern Russia - and after some pondering i think that’s exactly why that war started - because Russians calculated this is how they have most chance. Of course it was incredibly risky, if less countries ignored the US sanctions, Russia would be fucked quickly. But the risk was apparently well calculated and it is currently paying off - USA and EU are steadily bleeding their economy and their military resources in this war way faster than Russia (without even directly participating!), and this in one of the major reasons why Russia is going so slow - they don’t really have any other means to weaken the west. And their target is actually the same as USA - it was never war for Ukraine, nobody give a shit about that, it was a war for Europe, either Europe remain as US vassals and spiral down to being huge Puerto Rico, or they break off and finally start to do what EU was theoretically created for, or the EU shatters.
So i would carefullty say that this war will probably last till either EU breaks or Ukraine surrenders.
HAHAHAHAHA. Ruble is weak because Russian government kept it weak because it makes labor cheap which is very good for oligarchs. For years they’ve been buying euros and dollars to keep ruble low, and you know what happened to those money? Those are the money that got frozen! Poof!
Today they do everything they can to prevent ruble to become even stronger.
Oh but they are, just slower than Europe, but this looting isn’t sustainable and they will bleed like a pig when the petrodollar ends, which is real perspective.
Speaking from the US, the economy is definitely hurting. Our government tries to project an image of strength abroad, but at home we’re told things like “you need to suffer for Ukraine, your pain is worth it to punish Russia.”
The problem is if only half of Ukraine is taken, the other half will be turned into a terrorist kamikaze state by NATO with sole reason of existence is to hurt anything Russian. Yes, even worse than now, it will be literally like ISIS.
I don’t know about opening other fronts but Russian forces are severely outnumbered because of special operation format but since for Russia winning is a matter of existence, if thing will go really, really wrong, Putin will announce mobilization.
So far Russia is only fighting on territory very close to border where support of locals is high.
I was a strategic miscalculation from the beginning and then rotten Russian elite decided to “make peace” and “showed good will” by withdrawing forces from Kiev which resulted in nazis massacring people in those regions. Now the don’t have other option but to do what needs to be done aka eliminating Ukraine as a state. However, since Russia is not at war officially, the forces are severely limited, moreover nazis destroy everything they leave, however, looking at the situation, right now time is on Russian side with EU struggling and it’s not even autumn yet.
Is it? My reading was that Russia attacked Kiev to pin down and focus the Ukrainian army there, which allowed them to move in the Donbass region more easily.
No. They thought it would be easy win and got into a trap. They did not even bother to clear and fortify rear. Because of that, many people died. The plan was the same as with Georgia in 2008 with same people staying in government only without teeth.
deleted by creator
I always wondered why do they show ‘‘mercy’’ on Ukraine, didn’t they already crossed every line for that? Until that point, Kiev was very close to being 100% surrounded from all sides and to fall, it would be over until now if they continued, wonder if northern front will be started again soon.
Also, so now the goal is eliminating Ukraine as a state, I thought it will just be annexing half of it and change the government in what’s left of it in western part.
First, taking such big of a city is not easy. You either siege it, waiting for surrender, causing incredible atrocity for civilian population or take it in a street fight which basically means widespread destruction and even more atrocities.
Not to mention Russia never wanted to take Kiev back then, just a single look at engaged forces would tell you this - it was strategic feint to divert Ukrainian army - don’t forget Ukraine have constant numerical advantage, and early in the war it was even more, and they did not lost most of the equipment back then.
How long do you predict war lasting, is it realistic to end next year, spring or summer maybe?
No idea, i was wrong about the war starting in the first place. I guess by now it is foremost political, than economical and only on the last place a military conflict. USA and their vassal EU declared a total economical warfare against Russia - they pulled out from nothing. But they made a mistake with military part, as it is the strongest side of modern Russia - and after some pondering i think that’s exactly why that war started - because Russians calculated this is how they have most chance. Of course it was incredibly risky, if less countries ignored the US sanctions, Russia would be fucked quickly. But the risk was apparently well calculated and it is currently paying off - USA and EU are steadily bleeding their economy and their military resources in this war way faster than Russia (without even directly participating!), and this in one of the major reasons why Russia is going so slow - they don’t really have any other means to weaken the west. And their target is actually the same as USA - it was never war for Ukraine, nobody give a shit about that, it was a war for Europe, either Europe remain as US vassals and spiral down to being huge Puerto Rico, or they break off and finally start to do what EU was theoretically created for, or the EU shatters.
So i would carefullty say that this war will probably last till either EU breaks or Ukraine surrenders.
The ruble is stronger than it’s been in a decade so they might have calculated the risk. At the very least I can believe they expected this to happen.
(this graph doesn’t show the 2000s where the ruble was steadily stronger. This graph compares roubles to the Euro)
Yeah, it is obvious they did not moved before having guarantees from China. Possibly also from India and other trade partners.
HAHAHAHAHA. Ruble is weak because Russian government kept it weak because it makes labor cheap which is very good for oligarchs. For years they’ve been buying euros and dollars to keep ruble low, and you know what happened to those money? Those are the money that got frozen! Poof! Today they do everything they can to prevent ruble to become even stronger.
USA is not bleeding economy. Moreover, they suck blood from bleeding EU by supplying very, very overpriced LNG. And it’s not even winter yet!
Oh but they are, just slower than Europe, but this looting isn’t sustainable and they will bleed like a pig when the petrodollar ends, which is real perspective.
Speaking from the US, the economy is definitely hurting. Our government tries to project an image of strength abroad, but at home we’re told things like “you need to suffer for Ukraine, your pain is worth it to punish Russia.”
Only thing I can tell you is when they say the war will be over quickly, it never is. Never has been.
The most possible prediction I heard is this: “Taking whole Ukraine will take as much as taking Donetsk and Lugansk”. We aren’t even half there.
The problem is if only half of Ukraine is taken, the other half will be turned into a terrorist kamikaze state by NATO with sole reason of existence is to hurt anything Russian. Yes, even worse than now, it will be literally like ISIS. I don’t know about opening other fronts but Russian forces are severely outnumbered because of special operation format but since for Russia winning is a matter of existence, if thing will go really, really wrong, Putin will announce mobilization. So far Russia is only fighting on territory very close to border where support of locals is high.