- cross-posted to:
- collapse@lemm.ee
- cross-posted to:
- collapse@lemm.ee
I don’t know how realistic his time predictions are, given how few years he’s extrapolating from, but his overall concern seems very realistic to me. Especially with the earth dimming over the last decade.
Record global temperature in 2023 helps reveal acceleration of global warming on decadal time scales. The proximate cause of the acceleration is increase of Earth’s energy imbalance, specifically a substantial darkening of the planet (decreased albedo) equivalent to a CO2 increase of more than 100 ppm -The paper where James Hansen says that
This fact alone is terrifying to me. I don’t know if there is a reason to think it will slow. La Nina is weak, and not lowering temperatures.
“astonishing and frankly terrifying” that January remained at record highs despite a La Niña emerging.
This is what makes it a bit of a surprise: you’re not seeing this cooling effect, or temporary brake at least, on the global temperature that we were expecting to see.
The brakes are burning out. A massive change is happening. I really believe the earth is dying. I have been crying off and on since seeing this analysis. If the next decade really is as bad as the last five years have been, a lot of people will die. Even if it takes twice as long, three times, it will still happen. In front of me. I will watch everything be destroyed. This is the peak of human civilization. So, so many people are going to die.
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We can stop climate change today but then elites would have to drop their Epstein lifestyle and do something actually productive, so “uh, let me be clear” that’s just a no go
We can stop adding additional emissions today, but the fundamental theorem of climate change is that emissions are cumulative, and as the article explains the cumulative effects of all the emissions + albedo warming is coming even if not one more ton of CO2 is added to the atmosphere. And as that warming sets in, more ice melts, the albedo gets darker so the earth absorbs more sunlight, more gasses trapped in the ice are released, and the ecological systems that help keep CO2 in check collapse. All those things push the equilibrium away (or, since we’re in the doomer comm, simply do away with the equilibrium altogether).
China will save us, they’re going to invent fusion and do massive global investment in CO2 scrubbing
Posadism but replace aliens with China.
I like this tendency
i often curse myself for my feelings about china, because i realise my belief in them is almost exactly religous, a desperate belief that the world be saved, even the word belief itself shows this
I think it’s going to be cool for all the future Chinese explorers after the US finishes agricultural collapse, supply chain collapse, biodiversity collapse, defeudalization, etc. And then they get to explore all our ruins and meet wandering post-digital nomads.
China has more than enough land area and incentive to massively up the earth’s albedo (for part of the day) without amerikkka
I don’t find these models accurate.
The “worst case scenario” predicted is nowhere near as bad as its actually going to end up.
I suppose only time will tell. I will be very disappointed if I’m on the optimistic side of climate change.
We didn’t anticipate burning our planet for AI and crypto to such a great extent ten years ago, but here we are.
Historically, we have been
cool chart
It’s a very cool chart. I really like the way they have gdp loss next to human mortality.
Speaking more seriously, it is interesting/odd/noteworthy I guess (?) to me they think gdp losses will only be 50+ percent in the face of “high level extinction of higher order life on earth”. That’s obviously the minimum they expect but- really? Half of humanity dead, mass extinction, minimim 50% financial hit?
gdp loss next to human mortality
On top of that like its in the column BEFORE all the other MORE IMPORTANT COLUMNS detailing MASS MURDER AND GLOBAL ECOSYSTEM DESTRUCTION (English being read left to right).
This is EXACTLY FUCKING WHY we are in this predicament to begin with, capitalist psychopathic demons sacrificing THE ENTIRE FUCKING HUMAN RACE to mammon SO THE LINE KEEPS GOING UP.
minimim 50% financial hit?
“its easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism”
All this AI hype’s ulterior motive:
Intentionally cook the world as fast as possible because the imperialists already charted out what the world is going to look like post-climate collapse and they like what they see (geopolitical enemies taking larger hits than they will; being insulated from consequences by extreme wealth).
It explains the bald fascism, it explains the AI hype, it explains the climate denial, it explains the immigration crackdowns, it explains the scuttling of “soft-power”.
This is exactly what a dying empire with no other prospects of maintaining their hegemony would do. And they can sell it to the masses as the apocalypse/rapture that all devout Christians have been promised.
Can’t let all those billion-dollar doomsday bunkers go to waste.
Humans will survive. But we’ll wish we didn’t
I have to assume we can overcome. I have to assume it’s a possibility. It can’t end like this. I refuse to let this be it
imagine we all die and we don’t even achieve communism before it. how embarrassing for us. how truly embarrassing
If you add up the current CO2 level of 424ppm, the effect of CH4 and the other greenhouse gases (+100ppm), and the effect of “albedo dimming” (+100ppm). Then we are at a level of +624ppm(CO2e).
I know it’s weird of me to be anti-doomer about this stuff, but this is dumb. It’s not like Earth system models don’t account for non-CO2 GHGs and albedo; if they were looking solely at CO2-related radiative forcing, they’d be even more off base. In the past when CO2 levels were higher, methane was also higher and albedo was probably lower, so saying that we’re actually looking at a situation analogous to a world where CO2 is at 624 ppm is double-dipping. Extrapolating from a single year of difference, even if it was one where the models substantially underestimated the degree of warming is also a little premature. It’s a sign that the models need to be revised, but assuming we’re just going to keep going at this rate is probably not a good idea.
That said, at this point I think we’re just debating over which generation is going to end up holding the hot potato, not whether there will be someone to pull it out of the oven. This article was written almost three years ago and goes into a lot of the same scenarios. We’ve got several Damoclean swords hanging over us, including the AMOC and the stratospheric cloud deck and the seabed methane clathrates and so on. Even if the rate of warming returns to its pre-2020’s levels, it’s still faster than any time since the Siberian traps and that was not an awesome time for complex life.
