• AutoTL;DR@lemmings.worldB
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    1 year ago

    This is the best summary I could come up with:


    The more ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement, to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, is “deader than a doornail,” Hansen said in introducing the paper.

    The paper, “Global Warming in the Pipeline,” includes long passages of paleoclimate analysis and bursts of sharp big-picture framing, along with high-minded alarm raising and some personal score settling.

    Hansen’s 1988 appearance before a Senate committee conventionally marks the beginning of the era for climate alarm, when many Americans started worrying about global warming and why their leaders were doing so little about it.

    On the scientific front as well, Hansen, now 82, has been plotting a proudly independent course, warning again and again that warming would be worse than expected and that the scientific community had placed too much emphasis on climate models rather than direct observation and emphasizing what he has long called the “Faustian bargain” the world has made with pollution by aerosols like sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and black carbon, or soot, which cool the planet even though they are produced largely by the same processes that emit the carbon that warms it.

    The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gives a median estimate of about 0.5 degrees Celsius of cooling — significant, though small enough that a drop in its impact could be reliably offset by rapid reductions in methane, another greenhouse gas.

    On the rhetorical side, critics have raised issues with the phrase “in the pipeline,” pointing out that recent research suggests that, contrary to earlier conventional wisdom, when carbon emissions stop, most warming will, too, and in short order.


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