Realistically this is the same kind of situation that happened with Georgia and makes sense if you want to garner some level of legitimacy for your invasion.
Russia nor any country are going to outright say that they want war or that they are invading. So, like the US, you make some shitty pretense to invade, just make sure the reason looks peaceful or for protection.
What is in it for Russia? Political control, influence and resources. Russia’s economy is doing poorly and this is similar behaviour to what has happened with Georgia and Crimea. For the political control, we can typically find that Putin’s domestic situation typically improves when the focus is not on his country’s issues. Approval rating jumps up, people feel safer knowing that Putin is strong on terrorists, etc etc.
Russia’s economy isn’t doing poorly, but you might think that when you guzzle propaganda all day. Russia also gains absolutely nothing by invading Ukraine.
Is it ever true that an “invader gains nothing”? Or are you just (strangely) saying that there is more to lose than to gain?
Everyone on reddit is ranting about how it will be another Afghanistan… but what if it were merely another Chechnya? If Putin believes it to be that, he might well decide to invade/annex.
Is Chechnya a comparison you want to make? Russia fought two wars over it before successfully subduing them. To this day, there are still suspicions that there were false flag attacks where Russia killed its own citizens to bolster support for the war and bring Putin into the presidency.
When your economy is ~60% resources, you’re eco is fragile and honestly, that site doesn’t even support your position. Losing EU and UK as trading partners is going to substantially injure them (it will also hit the EU and UK). Russian economy isn’t as diversified as you might think.
Russia’s economy never recovered from being slapped with sanctions following the theft of Crimea. You can see that both in a dip in their nominal GDP and in a dip in the Big Mac index. As that page explains, a lower index value implies that McDonald’s is pricing their burgers lower to match what local people can pay. The ruble fell against the dollar, so the price of a Big Mac relative to a US dollar fell.
That’s utter nonsense as the article I linked above very clearly shows. If anything, the sanctions forced Russia to start developing its domestic industry making its economy far more robust than it was previously. Russia now also has an open alliance with China meaning that anything Russia can’t produce domestically can be sourced from China. Meanwhile, BRI is creating a huge economic bloc in Eurasia that Russia is an active member of.
I’m also not sure whom you’re claiming Crimea was stolen from given that people of Crimea are ethnically Russian and have overwhelmingly voted in favor of joining Russia after the 2014 coup. Once again, you don’t appear to care about people’s right for self determination in the slightest. It doesn’t matter to you what people who actually live in Crimea want, all you care about NATO’s geopolitical goals. Really telling on yourself there bud.
That’s utter nonsense as the article I linked above very clearly shows.
The article shows Russia’s currency sliding in value. It dipped sharply following the annexation of Crimea, began a recovery, and then dipped sharply with the pandemic. So yes, the sanctions absolutely hurt their economy.
If anything, the sanctions forced Russia to start developing its domestic industry making its economy far more robust than it was previously.
This is true, the sanctions did have that effect, at least regarding making it resilient to sanctions. This is an effect we’ve seen in other economies under a heavy sanctions regime (Cuba, Iran) where they’ve developed a more internally resilient economy at the cost of overall efficiency. All that said, there are plenty of levers that the West has left to pull. If Russian oligarchs start having their London real estate confiscated, you can bet words will be had with President Putin.
The article shows Russia’s currency sliding in value. It dipped sharply following the annexation of Crimea, began a recovery, and then dipped sharply with the pandemic. So yes, the sanctions absolutely hurt their economy.
Wait till you find out what happened to the rest of the economies in the world after the pandemic. Sanctions created a temporary inconvenience for Russia, but the long term effect is clearly positive since re-industrialization and self reliance will serve Russia much better going forward.
l that said, there are plenty of levers that the West has left to pull. If Russian oligarchs start having their London real estate confiscated, you can bet words will be had with President Putin.
You’re once again showing your lack of understanding of the subject you’re discussing. London confiscating the wealth of Russian oligarchs directly helps Putin since it forces the oligarchs to keep wealth in Russia where it’s subject to Russian laws. What the west would be doing is helping Russia ensure that the wealth isn’t being siphoned out.
Realistically this is the same kind of situation that happened with Georgia and makes sense if you want to garner some level of legitimacy for your invasion.
Russia nor any country are going to outright say that they want war or that they are invading. So, like the US, you make some shitty pretense to invade, just make sure the reason looks peaceful or for protection.
What is in it for Russia? Political control, influence and resources. Russia’s economy is doing poorly and this is similar behaviour to what has happened with Georgia and Crimea. For the political control, we can typically find that Putin’s domestic situation typically improves when the focus is not on his country’s issues. Approval rating jumps up, people feel safer knowing that Putin is strong on terrorists, etc etc.
Russia’s economy isn’t doing poorly, but you might think that when you guzzle propaganda all day. Russia also gains absolutely nothing by invading Ukraine.
Is it ever true that an “invader gains nothing”? Or are you just (strangely) saying that there is more to lose than to gain?
Everyone on reddit is ranting about how it will be another Afghanistan… but what if it were merely another Chechnya? If Putin believes it to be that, he might well decide to invade/annex.
Ukraine will have strong western support so it won’t be as easy as Chechnya. Although Putin might decide to annex anyway.
Is Chechnya a comparison you want to make? Russia fought two wars over it before successfully subduing them. To this day, there are still suspicions that there were false flag attacks where Russia killed its own citizens to bolster support for the war and bring Putin into the presidency.
When your economy is ~60% resources, you’re eco is fragile and honestly, that site doesn’t even support your position. Losing EU and UK as trading partners is going to substantially injure them (it will also hit the EU and UK). Russian economy isn’t as diversified as you might think.
You realize that two minutes of googling would save you from outing yourself as an ignoramus?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271373/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-russia/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235291/legal-entity-revenue-by-industry-in-russia/
Let me reword, if your exports are mostly resources, your economy is fragile. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/14/russias-natural-resources-valued-at-60-of-gdp-a64800
The main exports from Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_exports_of_Russia Which is referenced here: https://www.trademap.org/Product_SelCountry_TS.aspx?nvpm=1|643||||TOTAL|||2|1|1|2|2|1|1|1|1|1
Using Exports as the sole measure of the robustness of the economy really tells me that you don’t know much about economics.
Ahh here we go, yes because an economy does fantastic when a huge swath of money get ripped out from it.
Russia’s economy never recovered from being slapped with sanctions following the theft of Crimea. You can see that both in a dip in their nominal GDP and in a dip in the Big Mac index. As that page explains, a lower index value implies that McDonald’s is pricing their burgers lower to match what local people can pay. The ruble fell against the dollar, so the price of a Big Mac relative to a US dollar fell.
That’s utter nonsense as the article I linked above very clearly shows. If anything, the sanctions forced Russia to start developing its domestic industry making its economy far more robust than it was previously. Russia now also has an open alliance with China meaning that anything Russia can’t produce domestically can be sourced from China. Meanwhile, BRI is creating a huge economic bloc in Eurasia that Russia is an active member of.
I’m also not sure whom you’re claiming Crimea was stolen from given that people of Crimea are ethnically Russian and have overwhelmingly voted in favor of joining Russia after the 2014 coup. Once again, you don’t appear to care about people’s right for self determination in the slightest. It doesn’t matter to you what people who actually live in Crimea want, all you care about NATO’s geopolitical goals. Really telling on yourself there bud.
The article shows Russia’s currency sliding in value. It dipped sharply following the annexation of Crimea, began a recovery, and then dipped sharply with the pandemic. So yes, the sanctions absolutely hurt their economy.
This is true, the sanctions did have that effect, at least regarding making it resilient to sanctions. This is an effect we’ve seen in other economies under a heavy sanctions regime (Cuba, Iran) where they’ve developed a more internally resilient economy at the cost of overall efficiency. All that said, there are plenty of levers that the West has left to pull. If Russian oligarchs start having their London real estate confiscated, you can bet words will be had with President Putin.
Wait till you find out what happened to the rest of the economies in the world after the pandemic. Sanctions created a temporary inconvenience for Russia, but the long term effect is clearly positive since re-industrialization and self reliance will serve Russia much better going forward.
You’re once again showing your lack of understanding of the subject you’re discussing. London confiscating the wealth of Russian oligarchs directly helps Putin since it forces the oligarchs to keep wealth in Russia where it’s subject to Russian laws. What the west would be doing is helping Russia ensure that the wealth isn’t being siphoned out.