Lugansk: 100%
Kherson: 94.3%
Zaporozhye: 72.49%
Donetsk: 60.29%
Kharkiv: 33.15%
Nikolaevskaya: 4.83%
Lugansk and Donetsk are independent nations
Occupied by Ukraine on certain parts
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Does anyone know why are they dragging this long? I think that Donbas should be liberated as soon as possible at least and the rest can be dragged if they want to. Libs are insufferable anymore about this, why Russia don’t just level them and take all 5 Oblasts in a matter of days?
I was a strategic miscalculation from the beginning and then rotten Russian elite decided to “make peace” and “showed good will” by withdrawing forces from Kiev which resulted in nazis massacring people in those regions. Now the don’t have other option but to do what needs to be done aka eliminating Ukraine as a state. However, since Russia is not at war officially, the forces are severely limited, moreover nazis destroy everything they leave, however, looking at the situation, right now time is on Russian side with EU struggling and it’s not even autumn yet.
Is it? My reading was that Russia attacked Kiev to pin down and focus the Ukrainian army there, which allowed them to move in the Donbass region more easily.
No. They thought it would be easy win and got into a trap. They did not even bother to clear and fortify rear. Because of that, many people died. The plan was the same as with Georgia in 2008 with same people staying in government only without teeth.
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I always wondered why do they show ‘‘mercy’’ on Ukraine, didn’t they already crossed every line for that? Until that point, Kiev was very close to being 100% surrounded from all sides and to fall, it would be over until now if they continued, wonder if northern front will be started again soon.
Also, so now the goal is eliminating Ukraine as a state, I thought it will just be annexing half of it and change the government in what’s left of it in western part.
First, taking such big of a city is not easy. You either siege it, waiting for surrender, causing incredible atrocity for civilian population or take it in a street fight which basically means widespread destruction and even more atrocities.
Not to mention Russia never wanted to take Kiev back then, just a single look at engaged forces would tell you this - it was strategic feint to divert Ukrainian army - don’t forget Ukraine have constant numerical advantage, and early in the war it was even more, and they did not lost most of the equipment back then.
How long do you predict war lasting, is it realistic to end next year, spring or summer maybe?
No idea, i was wrong about the war starting in the first place. I guess by now it is foremost political, than economical and only on the last place a military conflict. USA and their vassal EU declared a total economical warfare against Russia - they pulled out from nothing. But they made a mistake with military part, as it is the strongest side of modern Russia - and after some pondering i think that’s exactly why that war started - because Russians calculated this is how they have most chance. Of course it was incredibly risky, if less countries ignored the US sanctions, Russia would be fucked quickly. But the risk was apparently well calculated and it is currently paying off - USA and EU are steadily bleeding their economy and their military resources in this war way faster than Russia (without even directly participating!), and this in one of the major reasons why Russia is going so slow - they don’t really have any other means to weaken the west. And their target is actually the same as USA - it was never war for Ukraine, nobody give a shit about that, it was a war for Europe, either Europe remain as US vassals and spiral down to being huge Puerto Rico, or they break off and finally start to do what EU was theoretically created for, or the EU shatters.
So i would carefullty say that this war will probably last till either EU breaks or Ukraine surrenders.
The ruble is stronger than it’s been in a decade so they might have calculated the risk. At the very least I can believe they expected this to happen.
(this graph doesn’t show the 2000s where the ruble was steadily stronger. This graph compares roubles to the Euro)
Yeah, it is obvious they did not moved before having guarantees from China. Possibly also from India and other trade partners.
HAHAHAHAHA. Ruble is weak because Russian government kept it weak because it makes labor cheap which is very good for oligarchs. For years they’ve been buying euros and dollars to keep ruble low, and you know what happened to those money? Those are the money that got frozen! Poof! Today they do everything they can to prevent ruble to become even stronger.
USA is not bleeding economy. Moreover, they suck blood from bleeding EU by supplying very, very overpriced LNG. And it’s not even winter yet!
Oh but they are, just slower than Europe, but this looting isn’t sustainable and they will bleed like a pig when the petrodollar ends, which is real perspective.
Speaking from the US, the economy is definitely hurting. Our government tries to project an image of strength abroad, but at home we’re told things like “you need to suffer for Ukraine, your pain is worth it to punish Russia.”
Only thing I can tell you is when they say the war will be over quickly, it never is. Never has been.
The most possible prediction I heard is this: “Taking whole Ukraine will take as much as taking Donetsk and Lugansk”. We aren’t even half there.
The problem is if only half of Ukraine is taken, the other half will be turned into a terrorist kamikaze state by NATO with sole reason of existence is to hurt anything Russian. Yes, even worse than now, it will be literally like ISIS. I don’t know about opening other fronts but Russian forces are severely outnumbered because of special operation format but since for Russia winning is a matter of existence, if thing will go really, really wrong, Putin will announce mobilization. So far Russia is only fighting on territory very close to border where support of locals is high.
Russia is trying to maintain a favorable casualty ratio, and they’re succeeding. The AFU has been so degraded that most of their soldiers are barely trained conscripts. According to Russian observers, the casualty rate was 10 to 1 in favor of Russia and according to Ukrainian soldiers (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/07/ukraine-kherson-offensive-casualties-ammunition/), its 5 to 1. Russia is advancing, ADVANCING and suffering less casualties than the defenders. And the point of the SMO isn’t exactly, though this may sound cynical, to liberate Ukraine. It’s to demilitarize and denazify it; in other words, it is a war of extermination against the AFU. The point is not necessarily territorial gains.
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Yes, I know, but how did Comrade Zhukov liberate whole Balkan in like 4 months?
how did Comrade Zhukov liberate whole Balkan in like 4 months?
The difference, as I understand it, is twofold: first, the Nazis were seen much more as an occupying force (in Ukraine, they’re indigenous). Second, there was much more resistance from the populace – specifically, Tito’s partisans, the most successful resistance movement of World War II.
Yes, we in Yugoslavia fought hard even before Red Army arrived
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Stronger than Germany and it’s allies in WW2??
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Don’t forget that the force used by Russia in the operation is severely limited. Can’t recall the exact numbers, but they were like 1:1 or a tad less than the Ukrainian regular military at the beginning of the operation in February. Such numbers are not good for a full scale advance assault. Gotta play tactics and strategy for a long time to reduce the Ukrainian military substentially to make further assault operations viable.
I know, but they could send double troops than that and steamroll the Ukraine
Some people might be dancing and jerking off to the supposed “military strength” of our modern military, but it is painfully apparent on the inside how things really are. Especially since most of us undergo military service.
The material base is almost non-existent. It got better in recent 5 years, but it is still damn bad. Economically army is in shambles. The soldiers who signed the contract are not numerous enough for double numbers and if the regular temp-service troops are sent there - it will be a giant fucking explosion of unrest.
So no. We can’t afford to send double of the already fighting troops. And no, double the numbers wouldn’t really steamroll anything, only increase the already substential losses.
So bad situation unfortunately, my brother told me that it would be over in a few weeks, that Russia would take S-400, modern Katyushas, Su planes or whatnot and just decimate Ukraine and nazis, if only were that easy…
What’s with the story about a Ukrainian counteroffensive at Kherson?
Ukraine announced a counteroffensive in the Kherson region (90% of it was concentrated there but there were attemps further east) that started on August 30-31 during the night.
News are muddy but it was supposed to be a great counteroffensive to take back Kherson, like the biggest of this whole war. They had some success early on but it seems they’re being pushed back.
At least considered the extent of it and how much they played it up as a great offensive to push back Russia, they kinda failed on that. But it’s still ongoing.
Estimates I’ve seen (from pro russian telegrams) are that there might be losses of between 6% and 10% of the entire Ukrainian forces. That they’re desperate for a victory and willing to have huge losses to get one.
Not sure how accurate but it does seem like Ukraine have thrown a lot at it and gotten very little.
This is their last chance before winter kicks in.
Hasn’t Russia used 10 percent of its armed forces as well? Its definitely an uphill almost inevitable loss for Ukraine, but I was expecting way more of Ukraine’s bootlickers to be dead than 6 or 10 percent
Russia has up to 2 million personnel including reserves and according to estimates, they deployed 200k in Ukraine.
Without reserves this would be around 80% of their active force, but reserves can definitely be called if needed.
Again news are kinda muddy it’s difficult to be sure of anything. I don’t think Russia has published their actual numbers.
How many more soldiers can Ukraine put through the meatgrinder?
Keep in mind that with their best troops, best Western weapons, and months of planning, the result is 5000 dead soldiers just to advance 10km, which the Russians will just retake later. It’s beyond parody, this smaller, weaker, corrupted force trying to beat RUSSIA in a war of attrition. Stupid.
Looks like while everyone was paying attention to the ‘grand Kherson counteroffensive’ which achieved nothing but a lot of dead Ukrainian soldiers and lost materiel, the AFU has had a big success over in the northeastern front, the last couple days they launched an attack north of Balakleya and managed to put the town into encirclement, earlier today the Russians withdrew and residents of the town have said that Ukrainian soldiers have arrived there now. Looks like a rather nasty fuckup by Russia there, this could allow the Nazis to threaten Izyum.
Zelensky has apparently agreed with Zaluzhny to pull basically everything they’ve got from other fronts to Kharkov (the Balakleya is in Kharkov oblast) to focus on developing a new offensive there. The only silver lining to this shit-cloud is that in moving their forces about, the Nazis left Artemovsk (Bakhmut) undefended and Russian army and Wagner’s PMC forces are apparently storming it in force. Artemovsk is a pretty key part of the AFU’s defensive lines in the Donbass, its fall/liberation (take your pick) would be pretty big news.
Aye, the Kharkov situation is quite worrying
So, from the couple telegrams I follow, one of them (asbmil) has outright said - this is, for the first time, Russia getting fucked, but also for some reason, until now, Russia has not targeted the supply lines (railways for example) that the AFU has been using to move men and materiel to the front - though they also note that now, in the wake of this front collapsing, they have started to do so, hitting the lines from Chuguev, but it’s a case of too little, too late. I try not to second guess what actual military people are doing, I’m not even any good at ‘map games’ let alone real strategy, but this does seem really confusing that they would leave military infrastructure of the enemy intact.
I think they left supply lines open because they don’t want to hurt civilians, cause hunger or other problems and costs associated with a total destruction of infrastructure. Ultimately such things will have to be rebuilt and if they occupy it they’ll be rebuilding and having to arrange less reasonably priced supply chains for civilian logistics matters for some time.
So it’s probably more not wanting to touch mixed use stuff.
well, these have been described as supply lines of a purely military nature, so… I’m not sure. But yeah that is obviously a consideration, they have been incredibly restrained compared to other wars, and compared to how western media portrays them. If that is the reason for their inaction on this front, it seems like it may now cost them more lives than it saved as it will drag the fighting out even longer. There are areas where the Nazis advanced 50km or so, it’s a huge advance compared to the nature of this war otherwise.
I am opposed to the Russian invasion as well as the NATO expansion and coup.
I feel bad for the people stuck in a proxy war.
“Neither Moscow nor Washington” as usual means “Washington”
If the status quo supported Moscow, these people would abandon neutrality immediately.
Wrong. I never said I supported the status quo. You guys act like the people who attack third party voters.
In this case “Neither Moscow nor Washington” is not even supporting status quo. It is supporting US imperialism which was making agressive moves against Russia, and to cement the US hegemony. You mentioned being Palestinian - it is similar if someone said “neither Palestine nor Israel” (especially in the context of Donbas war).
Not even close. We’re not dealing with an occupier/occupied situation here. We dealing with two powerful countries making Ukraine their playground.
I’m talking about Donbas situation. Ukraine is not a “playground” just as Palestine isn’t a “playground” for Israel nor USA. There are two genocides in motion both by fascist apartheid USA puppet states, but people of Donbas are fortunate to have an ally who (albeit only after 8 years) intervened to save them.
As a Palestinian I assure you that’s a no
What does being Palestinian had to do with it? Wouldn’t you like some help against the Israel or do you prefer to be bombed indefinitely by it?
Help would come better if the US cut off all support for Israel forcing them to reconsider their positions.
That’s not an answer to my question, just deflection. Would you like, right now, for Israel to be invaded by some third country with a goal to end apartheid and genocide of Palestinians?
“I don’t support America or Russia.”
If you support neither you support the status quo. Which just so happens to be a US dominated world order.
Or I don’t support people being invaded by empires and prefer a free world.
