The definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP. So that is Q2 and Q3 here, which means that Russia started on that path almost immediately after launching their unilateral war against Ukraine. Europe is projected to get there in Q4, so one quarter later.
Recession is to be expected in a situation like this but unfortunately this will not break Putin’s regime alone. Sustained support of Ukraine will be needed for a long time. Good thing is that Europe and West can easily do that, and as we proceed to isolate Russia completely, the economic hit will start to diminish.
Like every economic downturn, this will also hit those in the weaker positions the worst. That’s obviously also on Putin’s list of sins.
Since Europes economy grew in Q3 we can not fall into recession the next quarter. At least if you stick to the “two consecutive quarters of decline” definition: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-q3-gdp-confirmed-02-qq-employment-up-well-2022-11-15/
Since Europes economy grew in Q3
Oh, cool. For some reason that’s news to me. Been reading too much tankie bullshit, perhaps. Propaganda works!
Recession is to be expected in a situation like this but unfortunately this will not break Putin’s regime alone. Sustained support of Ukraine will be needed for a long time.
I guess you missed the part that the recession in US and Europe is at least as bad as in Russia, with Europe now having mass protests and strikes happening in many countries. You have to be utterly deluded to think that the west will be able to keep funnelling billions into Ukraine while domestic economies continue to crumble.
It’s also worth remembering that Russia has already gone through far worse economic disasters in the 90s and 2014 without collapsing. On the other hand, the west has never seen a comparable decline in standards of living.
Good thing is that Europe and West can easily do that, and as we proceed to isolate Russia completely, the economic hit will start to diminish.
What the west actually manage is to isolate itself. All major non-western countries are continuing to work and trade with Russia, including China and India which are two major rising powers. All the attempts by the west to isolate Russia geopolitically have failed miserably.
The fact is that Russia’s unfavorable war in Ukraine has exhausted its influence in international politics, and it is difficult to play a role in regional hegemony. The conflict between Georgia and Azerbaijan has further proved it .
Seems pretty mild compared to what we’re seeing in the west.
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I was waiting how long it’d take you to reach for the good old if you don’t like it here why don’t you just leave trope. Such a stunning display of your intelligence.
He is already from Russia I believe
My family migrated from Russia back in the 90s after the collapse.
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I’ve explained my position repeatedly and in detail in many threads.
First, I don’t have a bias towards Russia. I think Russia is generally as bad as the west, and suffers from many of the same problems being a capitalist shithole. What I take issue with is painting Russia as some kind of a unique evil. The west has done and is currently doing exact same things all around the world. For example, US is currently occupying large parts of Syria and NATO is helping facilitate a genocide in Yemen.
Meanwhile, the framing that the war in Ukraine is solely the fault of Russia is also fallacious and ignores the history that led up to the war. It doesn’t mean Russia are the good guys here or that I support the war, but it’s obscene to ignore the role the west played in creating the conditions for it.
It’s also clear to me that the narrative that western propaganda paints about the state of the war is at odds with reality. This propaganda is used to continue driving western support for continuation of the war. Many thousands of people have died or had their lives ruined as a result of that.
This whole war could’ve been avoided if the west stated that Ukraine wouldn’t join NATO. Peace could’ve been negotiated in April if the west didn’t step in to stop it. The west continues to pour fuel on the fire with the obsession of trying to weaken Russia. All that’s accomplishing is ruining the lives of people all across the world.
On the other hand, I genuinely support China because it’s a successful socialist country that’s been consistently improving the lives of its people and provides an alternative to the capitalist hell that the west promotes.
I have lived in the Soviet Union, I’ve also lived through the collapse of USSR and all the US interference that resulted in horrors I had to live through under Yeltsin.
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@yogthos @sizeoftheuniverse your lovely socialist China is not very bothered with human rights, especially for Uyguhrs. Russia did not invade Ukraine merely to prevent them jouning NATO (doesn’t match timeline either) Western support is not so much to weaken Russia, although by now that seems a bonus, but to protect a European independent country under attack. I see a number of flaws in your rant.
First, I don’t have a bias towards Russia. I think Russia is generally as bad as the west
I never see you condemn Russia or China for anything. You spend all your time on here defending/denying the existence of any faults in Russia and China.
Most people on LemmyNet (excluding LemmyGrad) will condemn Western countries as well as Russia/China.
I honestly believe you either have mental problems or are part of a state-run astroturfing operation.
sorry to be nitpicky but correct spelling in this case would be “he has came from Russia” or even better “he has migrated from Russia”
- I don’t think you know what spelling means because I didn’t misspell any words
- he
hascame from Russia. “has came” is not a proper verb form - There’s nothing grammatically incorrect about what I wrote
If you’re going to nitpick me at least be correct yourself
And the rest of the world is not in a recession?!
Might be soon, but not yet. And since Europe had growth in 2022 Q3 (just barely with 0.2%, but still), the earliest we could technically be in recession is 2023 Q2.
And, by the way, there’s been deflation in Russia.
The “growth” is due to inflation.
I think but am not 100% certain that these figures are real GDP, which takes inflation and deflation into account. Do you have better information?
We all know that the officially reported inflation rate is much lower than the actual one. GDP should be adjusted for inflation, but it’s using the official numbers, which are lower, and it looks like GDP has gone up.
We all know that the officially reported inflation rate is much lower than the actual one.
Sorry, what?
GDP should be adjusted for inflation, but it’s using the official numbers, which are lower, and it looks like GDP has gone up.
Yes, but it’s now clear that you do not in fact have better information. Glad we cleared that up.
And do you have “better” information? This is not my opinion - research to see that many economists are supporting my personal point as well!
And do you have “better” information?
Yes, and you also have it. Simply read the article. What you seem to have is gut feeling, at least until you give us better information, i.e. sources.
The fascist and terrorist state must collapse. Like the German Reich or ISIS.
Which state are you referring to? One of the eastern states? Or one of the western states? They’re both awful in a lot of ways. The question is: Should any of these fascist states win? Or should the human being win and get rid of fake democracies led by people high on the anti-social disorder scale?
Eh… I’m not wild about the idea of another Russia-centered collapse. I do hope that it transitions to a government that serves its people rather than a kleptocracy that enriches its leaders and feeds egos. But collapses are just as likely to wind up with another disaster, and I don’t wish that on the Russian people.
Are there options for fixing Russia that doesn’t include a collapse? Fascist states like Russia seem to have a very strong grip to power.
