https://archive.li/Z0m5m

The Russian commander of the “Vostok” Battalion fighting in southern Ukraine said on Thursday that Ukraine will not be defeated and suggested that Russia freeze the war along current frontlines.

Alexander Khodakovsky made the candid concession yesterday on his Telegram channel after Russian forces, including his own troops, were devastatingly defeated by Ukrainian marines earlier this week at Urozhaine in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk regional border area.

“Can we bring down Ukraine militarily? Now and in the near future, no,” Khodakovsky, a former official of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said yesterday.

“When I talk to myself about our destiny in this war, I mean that we will not crawl forward, like the [Ukrainians], turning everything into [destroyed] Bakhmuts in our path. And, I do not foresee the easy occupation of cities,” he said.

    • BurgerPunk [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      1 year ago

      Maybe the Ukrainians should negotiate and recognize the Donbas as no longer their territory somce the people living there have have democratically expressed that they want to leave. Then this can be over. Of course they could only negotiate if the US/NATO allows it, which is why this war keeps going on

        • Egon [they/them]@hexbear.net
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          I dunno, I think we should respect the voice and choice of the people, this being a democracy and all. If people vote for something we have to respect it, like it or not, this isn’t some authoritarian nightmare state were we supress democratic parties we disagree with and repress minorities like Roma or jews, right?

          • oce 🐆@jlai.lu
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            1 year ago

            Would you support the richest region of a country to separate by locals-only referendum so they don’t have to support the poor ones anymore?

          • Cyrus Draegur@lemm.ee
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            Edit: found someone who finally linked some actual evidence I can observe so I may remove all of this text I crossed out and recant my entire statement depending on how convincing it is.

            Edit 2: The War in Donbas, 2014…
            Sounds like Ukraine went Tankie Mode to put down separatists, except instead of using literal tanks to do it, they sloppily shelled with artillery at great range. Poroshenko was in charge at the time. It was almost ten years ago but I remember just barely well enough that I still hate his fucking guts even to this day.
            Finger pointing abounds as far as who exactly is responsible for all the “Russian Volunteers” who “Appeared” “of their own free will”. Truth is, even if someone else may choose to blame Russia about it, my own ethical consistency doesn’t let me, because even though there are some certain and concrete differences, I am ok with people who aren’t Ukrainian traveling to Ukraine and volunteering to submit themselves under the command of the Ukrainian military. I understand this is going to piss off both sides. It would be hypocritical to be against one side sending outsiders to fight in Ukraine while making excuses to permit the other side sending outsiders to fight in Ukraine.
            The fact remains that Poroshenko’s administration handled this extremely fucking poorly to say the least and that handling included the slaughter of over THREE THOUSAND CIVILIANS.
            Even IF the actions of the Ukrainian leadership did not directly result in some proportion of those civilian casualties, it still happened on their turf and under their watch.
            This is part of why Poroshenko lost to Zelenskyy in 2019. During 2018, Zelenskyy stated in interviews that he wanted to negotiate with Russia to bring peace to the rebellion in the Donbas region instead of blasting it to hell like Poroshenko was. Too little too late. Oh well.

            It would have been nice if a neutral party could have swept in, disabled all combat capability from either faction in Donbas, overseen a vote without any guns held to anyone’s heads, with full public observability by the entire world - except there are no neutral parties. Everybody is on a side.

            Maybe no single nation should be in charge of Crimea and Donbas. Not even Ukraine.

            Sadly, I don’t think it’s likely that the world will come together to oust all armed personnel, whether insurgent or loyalist, from these regions, using UN Peacekeeper forces, until shit calms down enough for the civilians who live there to self-determine their future without being coerced. Except it’s highly arguable that this will fucking count as coercion TOO. -_-

            Anyway,

            My stance is still that Russia should have stayed the fuck home, and should go back there, and if they JUST did that, then no one else would have to die in the Donbas region.

            … Unless the separatists breached the ceasefires AGAIN.
            AND AGAIN
            AND AGAIN AND AGAIN
            AND AGAIN AND AGAIN AND…


            you say this shit as if anyone enjoys the fact that people who live there are embroiled in a war.

            This only became the case when Russia invaded.

            Nobody who purports the position that Ukraine was enacting genocide ever shows evidence of ethnic cleansing happening in the Donbas region prior to the Russian invasion. Of course, evidence of it happening after the Russian invasion is everywhere: all the civilians Russia executed in the street, visible from satellite images even before areas are taken back by the rightful sovereignty of Ukraine to whence it belonged prior to the invasion. By Russia.

            All people ever tell me is “trust me bro” or try to assert that absence of evidence is evidence of a coverup, which are, notably, the same techniques american conservative fascist GOP-Simps use when trying to convince others that trans people are pedophiles and rapists.

            > my source: this propagandistic youtube video

            my. how credible.

            People will stop dying in Donbas when Russian invaders stop killing the Ukrainians who live there.

              • Cyrus Draegur@lemm.ee
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                1 year ago

                OK for real though I am looking forward to reading up on Operation Aerodynamic.

                Just because I’m not ok with the CIA sending operatives to foment rebellions, astroturf political movements, rig elections, and overthrow sovereign states does not have any influence on the fact that they definitely fucking do that shit.

                The fact that they definitely do it, though, does not make it ok for anyone else to do it either.

                Russia’s used the “turnabout is fair play” card in ‘encouraging’ ‘veterans’ to ‘volunteer’ ‘assisting’ ‘separatist insurgents’ in Donbas. Although I hate to see it, and wish they hadn’t done it, the rationale behind why they expected to get away with it is clear. Even right now, lots of non-Ukrainians are volunteering (with or without airquotes) to aid the Ukrainian military.
                Some might tell me “that’s not the same thing!!!” while others will tell me “that’s LITERALLY the same thing!!!” and however one wishes to characterize it, it’s definitely happening and it’s going to keep happening because the utility of it is too high. Russia’s gonna keep doing it. America’s gonna keep doing it. Proxy war.

                Now I can face the fact that the actual reason that I want Russia to lose is the same reason I want the American republican party to be extinguished AND the democrat party to be blown out afterward: conservative traditionalist fascistic authoritarian theocracies deserve to be wiped off the face of the earth and swept into the dustbin of history where they fucking belong. European influence has historically weakened these death cult brain-viruses. Europe being far more left-leaning and socialist than America may ever be in my life time makes them the preferable alternative to Russia’s literal jailing and execution of LGBT people. Encoded into their very fucking law books.

                • Russia’s used the “turnabout is fair play” card in ‘encouraging’ ‘veterans’ to ‘volunteer’ ‘assisting’ ‘separatist insurgents’ in Donbas

                  Okay so you claim that the Revolution that the left part of the Map does is Legit , and “wholisitc Peoples will” (even through its leads to Civil War ) … the REACTION of the Part of the Country that just lost THEIR FUCKING PRESIDENT AND THE RIGHT TO SPEAK THEIR OWN LANGUAGE , is just a Russian Operation ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

                  Maidan : "Fuck yeah TV told me ! "

                  "Slavyiansk , Odessa , Kramatosrk , Donestk , Luhansk , Mariupol , kherson , Kharkov , Dneperpetrosk , Crimea etc. all rebellling in Reaction ? " , “well thats just a russian operation , i can not forgive them !!!”

                  okay imagine Canada has a Quebecian President , he then gets unconstituionally removed by Canadian Faschist in the non french speaking Capital , the New Goverment that spend all their time proclaiming their Hate for Quebecians and forbides the french Language , and you try to go around telling me that the

                  "Seperatist movement gathering in Quebec is some perfidious French operation … nothing natural about it … they Love beeing bombed & hated , you have fallen for French Missinformation Sweety "

                • Sorry the first reply was to “Fronting” , your on a good way , the Maidan spell sits deep , it also sat deep in me once. True Power is True Power , and if you ever heard of “Softpower” … this is it …

                  That you currently belive that the “Maidan” is the great and Glorious Peoples Will" & “The Donbass revolution is is perfidious Russian lies” and against the will of the People" is US Softpower …

                  if you ever heard about the Concept ,SOFTPOWER it is the ability of the US State to make you Hate somebody.

                  conservative traditionalist fascistic authoritarian theocracies deserve to be wiped off the face of the earth and swept into the dustbin of history where they fucking belong.

                  i think you heard about it… ,

            • Flaps [he/him]@hexbear.net
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              1 year ago

              While I’m happy to see you’ve come back on some of your previous points, your edit is pretty fuckin heinous to say the least.

              To say ukraine went ‘full tankie’ while the people you’d happily refer to as tankies gave you sources and insight just makes you come across as disengenous. The word tankie has no meaning and you use it to just denounce stuff you don’t agree with.

              Also, to say it’ll be the people of Donbas who’ll break peace treaties after ten years of living in a war zone without any evidence that that’ll happen, even with evidence pointing to the contrary, is just fuckin vile.

              • Cyrus Draegur@lemm.ee
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                The identity of an individual who points me to external evidence has no influence on the validity of said external evidence, and the evidence must be weighed on its own merit; to believe otherwise is ad hominem. It’s true that Ukraine attempted to suppress their rebellion with extremely sloppy application of brutal force and that’s tankie activity no matter who is doing it to whom.

                Furthermore, as far as whatever violent tendencies may be exhibited by people who have been living in a war zone for ten years, you could be right. Or it could be that they weren’t the ones who violated ceasefire repeatedly back then in the first place and wouldn’t be the ones to violate such a ceasefire in such a hypothetical future - since the Russians in the PRESENT have demonstrate a pattern of repeatedly violating ceasefires and MAY sabotage it in the future while trying to frame these people (which is what “might” have been happening in actuality ten years ago)

                Yes, how vile an implication it is, that Russia will attempt to hold these people hostage and use them as human shields, all over again, as if we would never see it coming.

          • wanderingmagus@lemm.ee
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            1 year ago

            Slava Ukraini, Crimea is Ukraine, and if you don’t like it you can taste nuclear fire. HOOYAH AMERICA. The SSBN force stands ready to set condition 1SQ for strategic launch! Fuck the FSB, fuck Putin, and fuck anyone who supports them. KILL THE BEAR. Churchill should’ve followed through with Operation Unthinkable when he had the chance.

        • AntiOutsideAktion [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          They do when the democratically elected government is overthrown in a coup and the far right replacements start passing laws targeted at making people of your ethnic background illegal. Especially when the shelling starts, you do.

    • xuxebiko@kbin.social
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      Putin is a sadistic bastard. But his time will come and when it does I hope the Gadaffi-like death he fears most will seem like a picnic.

      • SanguinePar@lemmy.world
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        Meh, I’d rather he saw trial and the rest of his life in jail. Justice is important. More than revenge IMO.

    • gravitas_deficiency@sh.itjust.works
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      He’s a sadistic fuck, yes, but this blade cuts both ways. Ukraine is now and for the foreseeable future going to be staunchly and unrepentantly anti-Russia, and Ukrainian strategic leadership are taking the Finnish approach in the war and have more or less committed to shattering as much of the Russian military that Putin sees fit to throw at them as an overall strategy. It’s an existential struggle for Ukraine, and they are committed to either winning, or taking Russia down with them to the greatest degree possible.

      Even if support for Ukraine dries up and Russia is able to pull out an eventual “win”, it’s going to be a decade at least before Russia poses a credible threat in any meaningful sense (and realistically, I’m not sure Russia will recover from this in anything less than about a half century, considering how many unique points are contributing to their strategic failure).

    • bouh@lemmy.world
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      In some way yes. I would expect he’s more sadistic with Russians than Ukrainians at this point: imo the point is to hold as much as he can, especially crimea, until Ukraine ask for a cease fire, or even better a frozen front with a frozen war until everyone forget about it.

  • Flaps [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    RT was banned first day of the war due to links to the kremlin and propaganda. Wouldn’t want people influenced by propaganda, of course! This is the west! We’re free thinkers! Now let me see how the war is going in the non-biased Kyiv Post.

    • KevonLooney@lemm.ee
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      Why do posters from Hexbear defend Russia so much? They’re not communist. If anything, they’re right wing.

      Putin has a government allied with Russian business oligarchs and the support of the Russian Orthodox Church. He promotes the military as heroes. He cultivates a cult of personality. He personally controls billions of dollars. That’s textbook Fascism.

        • autismdragon [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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          I swear someone could claim like “Russia is controlled by an army of demons” and if someone from Hexbear was like “actually that is not true you should stick to the realm of fact in your criticisms of Russia” posters you’d still get like “WHY ARE YOU DEFENDING RUSSIA? DONT YOU KNOW RUSSIA ISNT COMMUNIST”.

        • oce 🐆@jlai.lu
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          If it was only that it wouldn’t be an issue, but many comments here are pushing Putin’s propaganda by trying to legitimate manipulated referendums and cherry-picking colateral damages of Ukrainian self-defense or Ukrainian extremists to try to inverse the burden of guilt. I don’t know if they actually support Putin or if they are just blinded by their hate of the West, but the end result is that they do help carry Putin’s propaganda and its fascist oligarc dictatorship.

      • Flaps [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        Nowhere do I voice support for Russia. It’s that any nuance with regard to the Ukraine conflict is seen as ‘defending russia’, which you’ve just proven, again.

        Edit: nvm, you’re that asshole that used the Sartre quote about anti-semitism to justify your anti-communism. You don’t want to learn. Almost as if you’re a bot

      • Egon [they/them]@hexbear.net
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        Pointing out blatant untruths, being anti-war and wanting accurate reporting rather that copium meant to inspire more people to thrown themselves to a pointless death is checks notes russian propaganda?
        You would’ve supported the invasion of Iraq

        • I_Has_A_Hat@lemmy.ml
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          So if you’re anti-war, why do you support Russia who started the war and has shown they are adamantly pro-war?

          • axont [she/her, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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            We believe the war was started by a quagmire of situations going back as far as 1991, including things like the 2014 NATO-backed coup of Ukraine and the 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia. This war wasn’t some random unprovoked territory grab dictated by Putin, it’s the resolution of western interference in the region for decades. Ukraine had been shelling Donbas and Luhansk for years. NATO brought this war upon themselves, basically. Instigating and prodding at the situation for years.

            Also, Russia and Ukraine, near the start of the war, floated the possibility of a ceasefire and NATO pressured them out of it. The USA saw the possibility of a proxy war and started drooling.

            We don’t support Russia so much as we see them as one unfortunate reality fighting another unfortunate reality. The war’s true culprit is capitalism, and as a leftist the only conclusion you should reach is wars like this are senseless and they should immediately stop. And the only way I see this war to stop is if Ukraine immediately surrenders and loses territory, otherwise we’d just be back in 2014 all over again and the situation would repeat. I can vaguely see how that could be construed as pro-Russia, but it’s more that I believe diplomacy with Russia is strained, Russia is volatile, and nothing is gained from open warfare with them. Everyone needs to stop fighting, whatever that takes, because the only winners in wars like this are wealthy capitalists, the rest of us lose.

            • I_Has_A_Hat@lemmy.ml
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              I’m sorry no. Every time someone tries to say “oh well Russia was just pressured by NATO” that’s all they leave it at.

              How?

              No really, explain. Explain how the only option for Russia was to invade their neighboring country and steal land. What negative effects would Russia be feeling right now if they hadn’t invaded Ukraine?

              “Well NATO was pushing up against their borders”

              So fucking what?! Just because your country is so shitty that your neighbors choose to ally with someone else is not an excuse to invade them!

              • Dr_Gabriel_Aby [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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                Have you ever heard of the Cuban Missile Crisis? Why did America freak out that Cuba was going to get missiles from the Soviet Union? What did the Soviet Union choose to do to stop the crisis? Could it be that it is entirely normal for a nation to not want an adversary’s missiles on their border? Has there been multiple examples of conflicts stemming from this issue all over the globe? Have you ever asked yourself a question about how conflicts start, and if other nations have ever behaved similarly?

              • axont [she/her, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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                Russia has no excuse and neither does NATO. The best case scenario is both countries lay down their arms and have socialists take power. Unfortunately we don’t live in that kind of situation, so the only thing I can advocate is both NATO and Russia cease fighting. Ukraine shouldn’t ally with NATO because NATO shouldn’t exist.

                What negative effects would Russia be feeling? I don’t know, personally I thought Russia entering the war was a bad call and a strategic mistake. I can see the reason why it happened while still saying it’s an open act of aggression. Russia probably could have negotiated with Ukraine about Donbas/Luhansk through better oil deals or something, no idea. Possibly could have tried straight up purchasing the land that Russian separatists occupied?

                But Russia probably had reason to distrust diplomacy with Ukraine ever since 2014. For context, I believe that 2014 happened specifically because Ukraine’s previous government was becoming too close to Russia and it made NATO nervous. I could easily ask, what negative effects would Ukraine be feeling if they hadn’t had a western backed coup? Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych floated membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, which set off protests that were capitalized upon by western nations. Would it had been so negative had Ukraine entered a formal economic alliance with some former Soviet states? Who knows now.

                The new president, Porochenko, was much harsher on Russian separatists in the east than his predecessors, which started the Donbas war in earnest. That’s the moment above any I can point to that started all of this. Maybe if Yanumovych had remained president there could have been a more peaceful solution to Donbas. Who knows now

                Yeah but this is all speculation and we live in reality. The reality is the war should cease immediately, for the benefit of people in Ukraine, Russia, and all refugees from the region. Only way I see that realistically happening is if NATO disengages and Ukraine loses territory.

                Maybe once fighting finishes something new and better can get negotiated, but I’m not holding my breath that neoliberal countries like this know how to resolve long standing conflicts.

                • barsoap@lemm.ee
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                  Ukraine shouldn’t ally with NATO because NATO shouldn’t exist.

                  Maidan wasn’t about NATO. Support for NATO membership of Ukraine only sky-rocketed once Russia invaded (after 2014, that is), and by now is overwhelming.

                  Maidan was about EU membership. Should the EU also not exist in your mind? And yes btw the EU is also a defensive alliance (it’s a gazillion of things). Russia’s invasion wouldn’t have happened had Ukraine been a member. Hence why Russia’s stooge Yanukovich was ordered to stop EU accession: Because then Russia wouldn’t be able to invade, any more. Ukraine would be as safe as the Baltics and Finland have been all this time.

                  Oh and btw after the 2004 NATO enlargement (including the Baltics) Putin said that he saw no threat to Russia from that, and also that every country was free to choose their alliance.

            • barsoap@lemm.ee
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              including things like the 2014 NATO-backed coup of Ukraine

              AAAAaaaa

              What you just said should be a bannable offence. President reneged on his election promises, people demonstrated, president sent out goons (both criminal and police) to deal with them, more people demonstrated, president passed laws (without having the votes) to make the country authoritarians, more people demonstrated even more, NATO countries “backed” protestors by sending… politicians. Who talked and negotiated, recommending compromises, the protesters were having none of that. After a while Yanukovich fled to his masters in Russia and, being AWOL, got removed from office.

              None of that was a coup, which involves toppling of the government by government insiders. It wasn’t really a revolution either because nothing fundamental about the state changed, though yes Berkut got dismantled over the egregious police violence they committed, but that’s reform, not revolution.

              Then, there have been multiple completely democratic elections since then. So all in all, big picture glossing over details: President didn’t want to keep his election promises, people were opposed and wanted a different president, then they had themselves exactly those elections. Call it a special electoral operation I’m not even using that term tongue in cheek. In more mature democracies where presidents don’t take orders from foreign governments it would’ve taken the form of “presidents wants something, people are vehemently opposed, president resigns, new elections”.

              • Dr_Gabriel_Aby [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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                I wonder how American would act if Chinese leaders showed up at protests for Black Lives Matters protests, or Russian leaders showed up for Jan 6th protests?

                Victoria Nuland showed up to the protests, and she has multiple emails that basically call it a coup.

                https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957.amp

                Also 2 weeks later was the Maidan Sniper incident that has overwhelmingly evidence of a false flag operated by the Ukrainian far right.

                I know it’s hard to see that the world isnt Disney level “good vs evil”. It’s actually a little more complicated

                • barsoap@lemm.ee
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                  I wonder how American would act if Chinese leaders showed up at protests for Black Lives Matters protests, or Russian leaders showed up for Jan 6th protests?

                  Well Russia did stoke a ton of that culture war bullshit in the US. On both and all sides, of course, they don’t care who comes out on top all they want is the US being dysfunctional (well, more dysfunctional than usual). The more controversy the better.

                  What makes you think they didn’t do the same in Ukraine? Just that unlike Yanks, Ukrainians actually understand how Russians operate.

                  Victoria Nuland showed up to the protests, and she has multiple emails that basically call it a coup.

                  Foreign diplomat is abroad doing diplomacy. Curious. Coincidence? I think not.

                  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26079957.amp

                  Coup? Where? All I see is American arrogance. Americans also still believe that they started Libya and that it had something to do with Hillary.

                  Also 2 weeks later was the Maidan Sniper incident that has overwhelmingly evidence of a false flag operated by the Ukrainian far right.

                  You mean Berkut gave Right Sector rifles, then Right Sector shot protestors (including their own people), then Right Sector gave those rifles back to Berkut so the bullets in demonstrators could be matched to Berkut rifles? Overwhelming evidence like that?

                  Hey but at least you didn’t claim Azov was involved who didn’t even exist yet.

                  I know it’s hard to see that the world isnt Disney level “good vs evil”. It’s actually a little more complicated

                  Indeed.

              • CascadeOfLight [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                You may notice that they form concentrated barrages along lines of advance, such as one might make if one were about to launch a maneuvering assault, upon two territories recognized just earlier that week as sovereign states by Russia, and with which it signed defensive pacts.

                • I_Has_A_Hat@lemmy.ml
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                  Are you suggesting there was even the remotest possibility that Ukraine was going to invade Russia? Cuz I’ve heard some dumbass takes, but my God.

      • notceps [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        Because I truly believe that war is horrible the hundreds of thousands of lives lost in this war is a human tragedy, working people all over the world have to deal with the fallout of this war with rising energy costs and higher foodprices which certainly also caused the deaths of people, meanwhile this war is used in many western countries to push extreme austerity which will lessen the quality of life at best.

        This war and all wars are a human tragedy, and at the start of it I certainly wasn’t in Russias corner and I’m still not but I have lost all sympathy for Ukraine and the West because not only have there been many off ramps for Ukraine to end this conflict but western politicians have contributed to this misery. They’ve contributed to the deaths of so many lives. People like Boris Johnson that sabotaged the peace talks, Biden that keeps on sending more and more weapon over there so more and more people can die. I’ve since stopped looking at how much money they’ve given but around spring it was 100bn USD which would’ve been enough to combat world hunger for 3 years. Ukranian officials like yes Zelensky who is a clown that personally doesn’t suffer from this and uses it to push his own persona and does a cool photoshoot in his sick operator outfit.

        Ukraine has not approached the negotiating table in any serious manner because they insist on demanding everything back including Crimea, which just won’t happen especially not in this position, so the ukranian leadership is happy to get some money from the west so they order people like you and me to walk into artillery fire or into landmines not for any reason because there haven’t been any real gains but just because that’s how the money is flowing in.

        Ukraine totally could negotiate a peace it would be incredibly easy because Putin seems eager to want to negotiate but what Ukraine wants isn’t a restoration of the border situation before the war they want Crimea as well, they are not serious about peace and everyone knows it, Ukraine will never surrender and so the only thing that can stop this senseless war is when the endless amount of money flowing into Ukraine stops or when the people of Ukraine have had enough of their bloodthirsty corrupt leadership and overthrow them.

        Edit: Also sorry but quite a few people from other instances literally say fascist shit that reminds me of rhetoric that was used during the conflicts in Yugoslavia and we all know how that turned out, calling russian ethnicities in Ukraine ‘occupiers’ is surely not going to lead to violence towards that group.

        • barsoap@lemm.ee
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          because not only have there been many off ramps for Ukraine to end this conflict

          How many of those involve not giving in to the aggressor?

          Is this one of these “pacifism is when I kick you and you don’t defend yourself” bits?

            • barsoap@lemm.ee
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              It does: It dissuades the aggressor.

              Germanic tribes, and this continues over to Ukraine culturally (because Rus), had the battle cry “better dead than slave”. A village would fight down to the last woman, elderly, and child. Because even if the aggressor overcame them they’d be left with nothing but their own losses. Thus, they wouldn’t even try.

              If Russia is allowed to get away with this, Taiwan will be next. A gazillion of small-scale empires in unstable regions all around the world will say “well, seeing that noone cares our time to get away with it”.

              Millions if not billions of people more will be dead.

              • brain_in_a_box [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                If Russia is allowed to get away with this, Taiwan will be next. A gazillion of small-scale empires in unstable regions all around the world will say “well, seeing that noone cares our time to get away with it”. Millions if not billions of people more will be dead.

                Holy shit mate, stop watching Marvel movies and get some perspective; this isn’t the first time one nation has invaded another. The world didn’t end when America invaded Iraq.

                • barsoap@lemm.ee
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                  The Iraq war was wrong for a multitude of reasons, and many countries (including mine) wanted to do nothing to do with it, but one thing sets it apart very clearly from the current situation:

                  Iraq wasn’t a war of conquest. Russia’s war against Ukraine is. The US hasn’t waged a war of conquest IIRC since Hawaii, it’s always been foreign meddling instead but never out-right imposition of rule and they’ve gotten less and less bad at how they’re doing it over time. I mean compare the Iraqi or Afghani government during occupation with the likes of Batista.

                  Then, and this (as well as that Marvel reference I couldn’t give less of a fuck) makes me think you’re American: It’s the first war by a major power in Europe since WWII. We thought we had that shit behind us, that Yugoslavia was a regrettable exceptions caused by small-minded autocrats exploiting ethnic tensions for their own benefit. But, nope, actual full-scale war has come back to Europe because unlike the rest of Europe Russia hasn’t gotten the memo that imperialism is soooo 18hundreds. As a yank you wouldn’t understand.

              • Sinonatrix [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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                I’m sorry but this is definitely shit you only say when you’re very far from the action. Would you want your grandpa drafted and sent into a minefield to “dissuade the aggressor”? Grandma and the children too apparently, better dead than governed by another neighboring authoritarian shithole?

                I think I’d rather just flee with my family to a country right next door that has a nuclear deterrent and NATO membership. Literally why would “they need to all fight to the death instead” be your first thought? I can’t imagine it coming from a position where you think Ukrainians are as human as you are.

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                  People back then couldn’t flee like that. You’re taking it all well too literally.

                  And yes I have Ukrainian refugee neighbours. Soldiers knowing their families are safe with friends isn’t exactly bad for morale, either.

              • Ram_The_Manparts [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                Germanic tribes, and this continues over to Ukraine culturally (because Rus), had the battle cry “better dead than slave”. A village would fight down to the last woman, elderly, and child.

                So when are you going to Ukraine to sign up for the frontline?

                You’re definitely gonna do that right?

                • barsoap@lemm.ee
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                  I’ll have to inform you that I’m a conscious objector (spent my time in catastrophe relief) and by now too old.

                  But yes there’s plenty of German reservists in Ukraine. Also what does that have to do with anything I said, I was glossing Ukrainian sentiment. Did you merely wanted to be right on the internet (in your own mind).

          • 420blazeit69 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            Ukraine has lost. They are not getting their separatist regions back.

            Their choices are to keep fighting, which will not change this outcome, or negotiate an end to the war so they can stop dying and start rebuilding. Their negotiating position will only weaken as the war continues absent some one-in-a-million stroke of luck.

            This isn’t “I kick you and you don’t defend yourself.” It’s “I kick you, you defend yourself, lose, and choose to either walk away or keep getting beaten up.” And that’s not even digging into the actual causes of the war, which are nowhere near as clear cut as Russia one day waking up and deciding to attack out of the blue.

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              Ukraine has lost. They are not getting their separatist regions back.

              [citation needed].

              In any case Ukrainians disagree with you and keep on fighting. Heck even if Russia occupied all of Ukraine they’d keep on fighting. It’s not in your hands whether they fight or not, and their motive is just, so why not help them? Because you’re a defeatist? Come on.

              • ShimmeringKoi [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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                In any case Ukrainians disagree with you and keep on fighting

                Yeah, that’s why they’ve been kidnapping people to the front lines, because the Ukranian people want to fight so much. That’s why they conscripted prison inmates and forbid any man undder 60 from leaving when the war broke out, right. Because of all that popular will to fight.

                • barsoap@lemm.ee
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                  There’s been plenty of court cases and firings over improperly handled conscriptions. Prison inmates IIRC weren’t conscripted but given a choice. Plenty of Ukrainians – also men – returned from other European countries to fight, left countries where they had a free welfare ride and working permits. Plenty of women fight in the army. It surely must be terrible over there /s.

                  Meanwhile Russia is force-conscripting pretty much any man they can get their hands on and sending them, without equipment, into meat grinders. Have a look at Storm Z units.

                • barsoap@lemm.ee
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                  You know what would be even more senseless than dying in a trench? Dying in an FSB torture cellar while your family gets raped.

              • Ukraine has lost. They are not getting their separatist regions back.

                [citation needed].

                Points at the utter failure of the joke of a counteroffensive to even breach Russia’s first line of defense after months of hype about retaking Crimea

                In any case Ukrainians disagree with you and keep on fighting.

                You mean the ones forced to fight because they were kidnapped off the street and will be shot if they try to leave? Or the fascists that are in charge?

                Heck even if Russia occupied all of Ukraine they’d keep on fighting.

                Part of the reason why Russia does not want to occupy all of Ukraine.

                It’s not in your hands whether they fight or not,

                Nor yours, but it is in the hands of NATO leadership who have stymied peace negotiations at every opportunity.

                and their motive is just

                [citation needed]

                so why not help them?

                Why would we want to help people get forced into a meat grinder?

          • notceps [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            Minsk I a treaty they’ve signed that was about greater autonomy for the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts like them being allowed to speak russian a treaty that was very quickly broken.

            Minsk II a treaty that did the same thing which again was broken.

            and these are the off ramps before the war during the war you had the peace talks when the russian army was outside of Kiev whose content is dubious because so far only the russians said what it was about

            and more importantly every peace talk after that Ukraines position was a restoration of the 2014 borders aka they want Crimea back which sorry is just not reasonable, hell for a lot of those peace talks russia wasn’t even invited it was a bunch of countries like Germany, UK and Ukraine but not you know the country currently participating in this war.

            This is one of those bits where I say that a country isn’t about some piece of land but the people in it which guess what the ukrainian government is feeding into gigantic blender.

            I DON’T CARE ABOUT SOME IMAGINARY LINES.

            If Cuba decided to ‘restore its borders’ aka if it attacked the US base on Guantanamo Bay and sacrificed hundreds of thousands of Cubans throwing them against the US army blender I would call for the Cuban people to rise up against its government because it doesn’t care about its people and I hope you would too, if Mexico decided to take back California I’d have that same stance. It’s called being anti-war, something I’m sure you’ll now quote how “actually your stance isn’t anti-war my which calls for sending billions of military equipment is actually anti-war”

            My guess is that you don’t know what war is like or have never interacted with anyone that had to flee a war, you really have two options here you can go outside and talk to any ukrainian woman that fled because of the war, tell them to their face that they are giving in to the aggressor when they say how angry they are at the ukrainian government because they don’t know where their husband or their two brothers are. You know what I’ll make it easier for you find any person in real life that has had to flee a conflict and how they feel about ‘giving in to the aggressor’. Or if you feel you don’t need to do that go join up the ukranian army do your part to fight the aggressor I mean it’s only war right, you’ve seen some TikToks with war footage and some phonk music accompaning it, war is absolutely poggers I’m sure you’d have a blast fighting some russian orks.

            • barsoap@lemm.ee
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              Minsk I a treaty they’ve signed that was about greater autonomy for the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts like them being allowed to speak russian a treaty that was very quickly broken.

              Minsk II a treaty that did the same thing which again was broken.

              …broken by the separatists. Also Russian was never outlawed.

              Ukraines position was a restoration of the 2014 borders aka they want Crimea back which sorry is just not reasonable,

              It’s unreasonable to not give in to a conqueror? It’s that “Pacifism is when I kick you and you don’t defend yourself” thing, again.

              I DON’T CARE ABOUT SOME IMAGINARY LINES.

              You may not. The people living in those areas (fled or not) do, though. They do care whether there’s rule of law, whether they have a say in how things are run, whether there’s a criminal installed at the top of things by the occupying force. After Ukraine got its independence many Tatars returned to Crimea that should tell you something.

              Ukrainians, no matter the ethnicity, don’t want to be ruled by Moscow. It’s as simple as that. Before the war, some still had hopes that good relations with Moscow are possible, but not any more. Do you want to be ruled by Moscow? See neighbours disappear in torture cellars?

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                damn I was so sure this ukrainian woman I was talking to really wanted the war to end but she must not be a true blooded ukrainian women amiright? Again you are just some edgy person that doesn’t get out enough and you channel that into playing up how much of a big powerful person you are by yelling “WAR WAR WAR NO ME WANT BLOOD WAR NOW BOMBS MINES BLOOD SKULLS WAR” it is good to see though that you will not go outside so there’s that you don’t seem like a pleasant person to be around.

                Also this isn’t a creative exercise you aren’t supposed to just make up lies lol

                • barsoap@lemm.ee
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                  Everyone wants the war to end. By the way of Russia losing it because Russia being allowed to win means even more war in the future: Peace on the agressor’s terms is not peace, and thus cannot be the goal of any pacifist.

          • ShimmeringKoi [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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            If the Kiev coup regime was concerned about aggression, they could have simply not done eight years of ethnic cleansing in the Donbas and ignored a ceasefire🤷‍♂️

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              Are there any OSCE election monitor results you want to back up your “coup regieme” claim?

              Also, the breakaway Russian puppet states were the ones to break the ceasefires.

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                  Must’ve been a colossal failure, what with Svoboda having exactly one seat in the Rada.

            • barsoap@lemm.ee
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              Ah, the old myth about the poor disenfranchised Russian minority. Who, pray tell, might have an interest in propagating such narratives? A neighbouring belligerent empire, perhaps?

          • Frank [he/him, he/him]@hexbear.net
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            How many of those involve not giving in to the aggressor?

            How can it be hammered in to your skull that this is not a story book where good guys win by virtue of their righteousness?

            This is geopolitics. An empire wants to conquer an outlying resource rich region it has not been able to bring under it’s control. It has provoked a small outlying nation to act as a proxy to weaken it’s enemy. Ukraine isn’t making decisions. They’re just ammunition in someone else’s war and the best thing for them would be to mutiny against Kiev and end the slaughter. Status quo antebellum is not on the menu.

      • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.ml
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        Everything you say about Russia is true, but that doesn’t change the fact that this is a proxy war where US is trying to weaken Russia. You can just be against a senseless war that’s killing hundreds of thousands of people and destroying lives of millions more. Anybody who is even minimally engaging with reality can see that this war will only end one way. What the west is doing is prolonging it without changing the outcome. People of Ukraine are being cynically thrown into a meat grinder so that US can score a win in a geopolitical chess game with Russia.

          • 420blazeit69 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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            For Ukrainians it’s not the case they’re being forced or deceived into fighting, it is a war of national survival! It is a war against an aggressor seeking to at the very least oppress Ukrainian national identity if not destroy it entirely as a political and social force.

            Russia is not interested in conquering Ukraine. They’re interested in goals like keeping Ukraine out of NATO, maintaining access to the Black Sea, and not having ethnic Russians who don’t wish to be a part of Ukraine killed on their borders.

            • diablexical@lemm.ee
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              What would you call the annexed regions if not conquered? “Liberated”? Get a grip

              • 420blazeit69 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                I would call them annexed. The people in them do not want to remain part of Ukraine, they’re fine with being part of Russia, and that’s the touchstone here.

                Russia is not interested in conquering the whole of Ukraine, because most of the people in the western part do want to remain Ukrainian, not Russian.

          • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.ml
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            The reality is that Ukraine lost its sovereignty when the legitimate and democratically elected government was overthrown in a coup. That’s when the war started between the regime in western Ukraine backed by the west and the east. Western media actually reported on this as well

            I agree that at this point Ukraine is basically fucked. There was a possibility to make a deal back in March last year, but US and UK decided to sabotage it. Now, Russia will likely go all the way and there’s not going to be an Ukraine left when this war ends.

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            Ahh, the rare sane hexbear user I still have hopes for you lot you’re definitely not as bad as lemmygrad.

            However, let me add something:

            It is impossible to conceive of peace until there is a mutually hurting stalemate between the two sides in which neither believe they can win

            You leave out the scenario of Russians getting kicked out of the country. Which is going to lead to Putin being sent to his Dacha, and if not and he somehow clings on Ukraine having all its territory opens NATO membership which means that the Russian general staff is going to shit bricks and rather putsch than attack.

            What do you think happens if Zelensky signs a peace deal that gives up land? He, a Russian-speaking Jew who used to be on Russian TV and regularly went to the country. He would be deemed a Russian traitorous Jew and would be overthrown and possibly killed by the nationalist and far-right elements within the Ukrainian Army

            He a) wouldn’t do that and b) since when is Ukraine antisemitic you’re confusing it with… pretty much all other countries in that area and c) you don’t need to invoke far-right fucks (who are a tiny minority btw) the rest of the country would, well, send him to a Dacha.

            And ever if: At that point we’d be in the situation many predicted in the first days of the invasion: Fall of the government, but Ukrainians then fighting a partisan war. And Ukraine right now is just in way too good a position to switch to that.


            All in all, the way forward to quick peace is clear: Help Ukraine win this thing. It’s both the best option from a direct humanitarian POV by cutting the war short, as well as the best option for wider humanity and the future: Not allowing states intending to conquer to get away with such behaviour. Discouraging wars of aggression is important by itself and one of the reasons why Ukrainians fight so hard, they see the universalism in their own national struggle it just all aligns so well.

                • Dr_Gabriel_Aby [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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                  you are welcome. Since you are asking for more people to die than less people to die, and you say it’s for peace. I’ve decided simplifying your long ass post for everyone.

              • barsoap@lemm.ee
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                The best weaponry available to Ukraine was shattered against the Russian frontline-they can barely even take a few villages,

                Ukraine send like two and a half Leos out to see if a frontal assault would work, and it didn’t, so they didn’t do it again. The vast majority of western systems are still intact and in any case: If things like MBTs and APVs don’t get destroyed you’re not using them. Things get shot at in wars and it’s no secret that a direct artillery hit will kill any tank.

                Meanwhile, though, Ukraine is inflicting heavy attrition on Russian artillery, as well as choppers. Don’t let the lines on maps confuse you there’s a lot happening that isn’t visible there.

                what I am saying is that the far-right has disproportionate strength in the Ukrainian army

                That would mean that all those people who joined since 2014, 2022 are far-right? Which would mean that the whole of Ukraine is far-right. Which makes no sense when you look at the election results with Svoboda having one seat in the Rada.

                then in 2022 because it was the best organised forces in the areas seeing the most intense fighting.

                Ukraine built its army from 2014, recruiting ordinary people, training them according to NATO doctrine (giving status and independence to NCOs, mission command, such stuff), with NATO help, we sent like a gazillion of instructors. Many many Nazis left Azov after they were integrated into the National Guard, and the whole thing was actively depoliticised.

                Are there still Nazis in Azov? Almost certainly. But the days of them dominating and openly running around with SS runes on their helmets are definitely over. Just as a side note btw Azov is and always was Russian-speaking, Ukrainian nationalism gets complicated.

                I do not see how Ukraine can win this-even with western weaponry they have failed in their counteroffensive.

                No. Ukrainian generals have been very clear about this from the beginning: The offensive is going to drag on for a very long time due to the lack of materiel to do anything big. Conditions have improved somewhat with Stormshadow and Taurus is bound to come soon but Ukraine has no weapons with which it could just obliterate Russian artillery en masse which would then allow them to bring in slow and vulnerable materiel to clear minefields etc. to enable them to break through the line with heavy armour. They, as already said, have to slowly grind down Russian artillery where they can.

                The other way would be actual air superiority. Dunno if those F16s will suffice to switch to full NATO strategy but it’s certainly going to give the Russian side quite some trouble.

                Speaking of NATO strategy that’s probably the reason this impression exists: Yeah if Ukraine had a fully equipped NATO army they’d disable the whole Russian rear from the air, then parachute in armour to attack the Russian lines from the rear and the whole thing would be over in no time. The kind of not war but beating you saw on TV so many times. Like Operation Desert Storm. But Ukraine doesn’t have a fully equipped NATO army, it’s a Soviet-style army half-way switching to NATO doctrine drip-fed some NATO surplus.

                Oh another tidbit: Russia mobilised all its reserves to the front, quite some while ago. Ukraine didn’t they’re rotating troops in and out. Which is why you see renewed conscription drives in Russia, which then poses the question on what kind of equipment they’re supposed to be equipped with, not to speak of the additional instability doing that causes.

      • UnicodeHamSic [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        We don’t. However America is worse. So it is nice to neoliberal infighting. Bonus, America losing is better overall for world peace.

      • Frank [he/him, he/him]@hexbear.net
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        Because you have the reading comprehension of a grade schooler and are apparently incapable of handling such complexities as “Just because they’re winning doesn’t mean we support them” and “everybody in this conflict is an asshole except the non-Nazis soldiers being slaughtered so defense contractors can put in new pools in Arlington”.

        This isn’t some law of attraction thing. Admitting that Ukraine is at best stalemated isn’t going to cause them to magically lose.

        • redtea@lemmygrad.ml
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          There’s a lot of layers to this. Among them the problem that yanks and other westerners with an exceptionalist world outlook have been convinced that only the good guys win, and that to win means to be the good guy no matter how abhorrent they are. So to accept that Russia is winning or, at least, that Ukraine can’t win, means accepting that Russia is in fact the good guy. Which is clearly nonsense, but then neither you nor I are making the claim.

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    this thread is wild

    can we remember, everyone:

    1. discussion on who is winning has no bearing on discussion of who is in the right, and vice versa

    2. Russia, Ukraine, and NATO can all be evil and wrong for separate and true reasons

    3. criticizing NATO does not amount to supporting Putin

    4. criticizing Putin does not amount to supporting NATO

  • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.ml
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    Imagine linking kyivpost as if it’s a credible source. Might as well link an article from Weekly World News next.

    edit: I love how downvotes immediately come in when you point out the obvious, as long as the article says what people want to hear they all of a sudden stop caring about credible sources

    • PersnickityPenguin@lemm.ee
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      What part of this is incorrect?

      “Can we bring down Ukraine militarily? Now and in the near future, no,” Khodakovsky, a former official of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said yesterday.”

      The Kyiv Post is quoting Alexander Sergeevich Khodakovsky from his telegram channel, the Russian commander of the pro-Russian Vostok Battalion. He was involved in the uprising in Donetsk back in 2014 and continues to this day to be involved in the Ukrainian war.

      https://t.me/s/aleksandr_skif?before=2851

      In this case, they are quoting a primary source. So irrespective of your opinion of their journalistic integrity, this appears to be factual information.

      Here’s another source from Reuters that discusses the Ukrainian Marines retaking Urozhaine:

      https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-recaptures-urozhaine-donetsk-region-russian-forces-2023-08-16/

      This is a typical poisoning the well ad hominem.

      • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.ml
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        In this case, they are quoting a primary source. So irrespective of your opinion of their journalistic integrity, this appears to be factual information.

        Let’s start with the fact that he’s not some top Russian commander, and he’s not even part of the actual Russian military. He’s one of the commanders of the militias who’ve been fighting against the regime. the article is clearly misrepresenting his position and authority.

        Here’s another source from Reuters that discusses the Ukrainian Marines retaking Urozhaine

        Meanwhile, these little villages change sides pretty much every day of the conflict. You can see on the pro Ukrainian map how small this place is and that it’s not even close to Russian defensive lines https://liveuamap.com/#

        Perhaps you can explain why you think this is a significant event here. Seems like this is a much bigger deal https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/10/europe/kupyansk-ukraine-evacuation-russia-intl/index.html

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          https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-6-2023

          Well according to the Institute for the Study of War, he is the current commander of the Vostok battalion in Donetsk. A lot of people reject the idea that the so-called rebellion in danetsk and luhansk was a grassroots movement, and was instead orchestrated by the Russian GRU and FSB to whittle away at Ukraine.

          Therefore, that would lend credence to the idea that Khodakovsky is in fact a Russian commander, despite the fact that he was born in Donetsk. He did however relocate to Russia after 2018 before returning for the war.

          I am less interested in the details of this particular event, as I am more concerned about the truth. I merely provided alternative sources of information that cross-referenced and corroborated the material in the article as being mostly true.

          As for a Kupyansk, I’m not at all surprised because as you say, there has been give and take along the border for the entire duration of the war. And since Russia still has its inventory a large amount of artillery, any town is at risk of attack.

          • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.ml
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            ISW is a propaganda outlet run by Vicky Nuland, so if that’s where you get your information from that explains a lot about your world view. The fact that a lot of people in the west guzzle propaganda isn’t really an argument.

            Therefore, you you should stick to actual facts of the situation instead of making stuff up.

            If you were concerned about the truth then you wouldn’t be pretending that the uprising in Donetsk was somehow orchestrated when there’s a mountain of evidence to the contrary. Let’s take a look at a few slides from this lecture that Mearsheimer gave back in 2015 to get a bit of background on the subject. Mearsheimer is certainly not pro Russian in any sense, and a proponent of US global hegemony. First, here’s the demographic breakdown of Ukraine:

            here’s how the election in 2004 went:

            this is the 2010 election:

            As we can clearly see from the voting patterns in both elections, the country is divided exactly across the current line of conflict. Furthermore, a survey conducted in 2015 further shows that there is a sharp division between people of eastern and western Ukraine on which economic bloc they would rather belong to:

            The reality is that the population in these areas is largely ethnic Russian and after US sponsored coup regime started doing things like banning Russian language, these people rebelled against it.

            Furthermore, here’s what CNN was reporting the regime doing in Donbas back in 2014 https://twitter.com/paulius60/status/1611148483859255296

            Here’s an article from the human rights watch https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/10/20/ukraine-widespread-use-cluster-munitions

            And here’s a whole documentary of the atrocities these people suffered https://yewtu.be/watch?v=bN68OfFKaWs

            Pretending this was somehow orchestrated as opposed to directly caused by the oppression of the regime is the height of dishonesty. Which is pretty weird to see coming out from somebody who seeks the truth.

            Plenty of western experts have been talking about this for many decades. This only became controversial to mention after the war started. Here’s what Chomsky has to say on the issue recently:

            https://truthout.org/articles/us-approach-to-ukraine-and-russia-has-left-the-domain-of-rational-discourse/

            https://truthout.org/articles/noam-chomsky-us-military-escalation-against-russia-would-have-no-victors/

            As for a Kupyansk, I’m not at all surprised because as you say, there has been give and take along the border for the entire duration of the war. And since Russia still has its inventory a large amount of artillery, any town is at risk of attack.

            Except Russia made many kilometres of progress there and Ukraine is now evacuating from the area. That’s not give and take, that’s Ukrainian position collapsing. Russia isn’t evacuating anybody at any single point that Ukraine was trying to break through for the past 10 weeks.

            • barsoap@lemm.ee
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              Mearsheimer

              A leftie citing a Realist. Then Chomsky, the serial genocide denier larping as an Anarchist you must be American he’s a persona non grata in Europe. In a sense also a realist in the sense of “no chess piece country is ever doing anything and everything bad that ever happens is due to the CIA because what the other players are doing is always good”.

              Now I have my issues with Kraut but watch this.

              • ThomasMuentzner [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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                you are very good at repeating slander ! We are very good in seeing through it …

                tell me why would you miss out on a “A leftie citing a Realist” and a “serial genocide denier larping as an Anarchist” sounds interesting … also its required from you, Your not a serious Person if and worth the discussion if “listening to the Dissent” is to much to ask for you …

                Imaging in a Court

                “the evidence is not relevant because it was filmed by a Japanse camera , and the Japanese are dirty , i will not watch this , Also take me Serious please !”

                • barsoap@lemm.ee
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                  Because the Soviets – rightly – decried geopolitical realism as imperialist apologia. You’re citing imperialist apologia. As a so-called leftist.

                  And Chomsky denying genocides, do I really have to go into that?

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            A lot of people reject the idea that the so-called rebellion in danetsk and luhansk was a grassroots movement

            Therefore, that would lend credence to the idea that Khodakovsky is in fact a Russian commander

            “A lot of people are saying it” lends credence to nothing.

            The war timeline link in your source, by the way, will show you the front has not moved appreciably for nearly a year.

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          Well the information has to come from somewhere, and a war between two sides some of the information has to come from the other side otherwise it’s all propaganda.

          The trick is to determine what’s true or not.

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        If you’re curious, this is the full telegram translation from DeepL:

        Can we militarily bring down Ukraine? Right now and in the short term, no. When I reason in myself about our victory in this war - I don’t mean that we will crawl forward like them, turning everything into bahmuts on our way. And I don’t envision the easy occupation of cities… We will enter the phase that is most disadvantageous for Ukraine in its “self-styled” state: the phase of neither peace nor war. We could be in this phase if, instead of the SWO, we recognized the territories and officially took them under guardianship. But that would be a completely different turn of history…

        In our reality, which has already taken place, it will come to a “truce”. We have started certain processes in the economy, caused by the increased load, but in general we have endured and caught the balance. We are balancing - not without that - but we are walking on a tightrope. Remember the crisis of the eighth year, which was called the crisis of the banking system? Back then, just one bank collapsed, setting off the domino principle, and we experienced a lot of bad things in a fairly short period of time. Now there is systematic pressure, but we are warming up, but we are holding on.

        It will not be the same with Ukraine. If we don’t let the internal situation in Russia to rock, we have a very high survivability with all our ailments. Ukraine is a completely different “physics”. Economically and politically, it is a construct that cannot survive on its own. That is why the project of independent Ukraine was not realized and turned into a project of “who to lie under”. Unfortunately, the elites oriented to Western money defeated the elites who wanted to milk Russia. Now the West gives mostly what can only bring destruction. When you read about the next aid, what you see is not money that you can saw, but iron that you have to dispose of. You can’t make much money from it. Therefore, at the end of the upcoming phase, we will most likely face a global redivision of Ukraine. Translated with DeepL https://www.deepl.com/app/?utm_source=android&utm_medium=app&utm_campaign=share-translation

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          Seems as though he’s saying basically what most Hexbears are saying: that Ukraine is unstable, and without Western support it will fall. All Russia needs to do is hold out until the West gets bored or pivots to Taiwan, which is easier said than done, admittedly, but is possible.

          • barsoap@lemm.ee
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            It’s based on the US being in it only half-heartedly. Frankly speaking the US withdrawing from the conflict could end it because Russia will stop once it sees that Europe doubles down (after a moment of shock and denial about us being US puppets etc), but so would America actually committing.

            Where are the damn ATACMS, America? Guarantees of delivering Abrams for years on end no-matter-what?

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                I’m not American. And no the American cope is “We won Vietnam because we had a higher kill count”.

                I’m German. And yes we won WWII because we got rid of the Nazis.

                • 420blazeit69 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                  Both flavors of cope abound regarding Vietnam. I didn’t mean to imply I assumed you were American; I’m just pointing out that “if we really took the gloves off they wouldn’t stand a chance” is (1) false, (2) a way the public gets sold on the next war, and (3) a silly thing to say when whatever “gloves off” scenario one imagines isn’t going to happen.

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        Don’t argue with this guy. I’ve had a run-in with him before.

        100% vatnik cocksucker and propaganda spewer.

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            I can kinda see where you get the homophobia but the racism?

            Calling someone a cocksucker is just an insult. Might not be used as much today, but watch Scarface for more examples.

            And from Wikipedia:

            Vatnik or vatnyk (Russian: ватник) is a political pejorative used in Russia and other post-Soviet states for steadfast jingoistic followers of propaganda from the Russian government.

            So racist? No. I’m making fun of people who swallow Russian propaganda without thinking.

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      Imagine linking kyivpost as if it’s a credible source.

      Oh come on, you don’t give a fuck about that either,

      Based on your post history, one might think that you have an extremely selective perception of which sources are credible, namely those that only underpin your own world view

      • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmy.ml
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        I primarily use mainstream western sources such as WSJ, NYT, Financial Times, Business Insider, and the Economist. If you think these sources are somehow biased pro Russia you need to get your head checked.

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      I downvoted you for being a condescending piece of shit. Can’t speak for others. There was a way to make your point without being a condescending asshole, but that’s not what you chose.

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    I think many people are forgetting that the larger army, vastly outnumbering Ukrainian resources in numbers, has not won a victory since the beginning of the invasion. And only presents a problem because the 2 countries cannot reliably use air power to overcome 1st WW trench warfare. Russia has defenses, but no ability to move forward. They are just trying to hold on to what they took in those first few months and are very slowly failing at that. If Ukraine can keep going, supported by the West, Russia will lose. I do not think Russia will use nukes – any use of a nuke is basically on Russia’s own land – according to them – and will affect them as much as Ukraine. But the question of ending the war is an interesting one. Do we see Russia continuing the war if they lose most of their ill-gotten territorial gains? What happens to those insecure areas? Are people going to rebuild, i.e. invest scarce resources in unstable areas? Or will they just become dead zones, DMZ borders?

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      has not won a victory since the beginning of the invasion

      Gotta have a highly specific definition of “victory” to say something like this

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      Ukraine can keep going, supported by the West, Russia will lose.

      You have a whole entire counteroffensive that shows the exact opposite.

      Also

      has not won a victory since the beginning of the invasion.

      Have you taken a look at a map of the current situation? That’s just straight up bullshit

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            It’s some stupid historical revisionism Ukrainian nationalists are trying to do. The medieval Rus was centered around Kiev, and both Ukraine and Russia share that tradition, but Ukrainian nationalist hate the thought of sharing history with Russians. So they have created this new history where Russian Empire was actually just a creation of “violent Muscovite conquest,” often alongside the racist implication that “the Moscovites” (including modern day citizens of the Russian Federation) were unable to shake off their “asiatic/Mongolian” influence and that’s what makes them uniquely savage and evil etc etc… While the wholesome Ukrainians are of course enlightened and western

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            The language means "those aligned with the Moscow regime"I think

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          nationalism is like leprosy … a state once infected is left with his territories severed from it, its youth withered away into the now foreign grounds and its spirits broken under the Mad screams of the unrelentlessly uneffected …

          • Murvel@lemm.ee
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            And you’re delusional. Fitting really, in some comical sense. The child and the idiot.

            • CannotSleep420@lemmygrad.ml
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              Even if screeching about muh whattaboutism wasn’t a thought terminating cliche, an insult is not a whattaboutism.

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                  NSA MASS SURVEILLANCE KENT STATE KENT STATE UNI CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGY DAVID MISCAVIGE 佔領華爾街 MAY 4 1970 MASSACRE 肯特州立大学枪击事件 MAY 13 1985 MOVE BOMBING「MOVE」組織轰炸 RED SUMMER 1919 HOUSE UN-AMERICAN ACTIVITIES COMMITTEE 众议院非美活动调查委员会 TRAIL OF TEARS 美国本地人种族灭绝 JIM CROW SEGREGATION 吉姆·克勞法 HUMAN RIGHTS 人權 CITIZENS UNITED 联合公民诉联邦选举委员会案 SAFETY 安全 HIGH SPEED RAIL 人民共和国高速铁路 STRONG MASS LINE 群众路线 REPUBLIC OF HAWAII 夏威夷共和国 THIRTEEN COLONIES 十三殖民地 VIETNAM AFGHANISTAN IRAQ 伊拉克 EDWARD SNOWDEN 爱德华·斯诺登 SCIENTOLOGY 山達基教會 GUANTANAMO BAY DETENTION CAMP 关塔那摩湾拘押中心 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE 諾貝爾和平獎 BARACK OBAMA 贝拉克·奥巴马 COMMUNISM SOLIDARITY LABOUR ACTION ANTI-CAPITALIST PRO-REVOLUTION PROTEST MOVEMENT ANTIFA RIOT POLICE BRUTAILITY POLICE OCCUPATION PAID SUSPENSION LEFTIST COUNTER PROTEST CHARLES MANSON MANSON FAMILY JEHOVAH’S WITNESSES BORDER CONCENTRATION CAMPS MKULTRA ASSASINATE FRED HAMPTON JANE FONDA EUGENE DEBS MALCOLM X EAT THE RICH THE CRUMBLING OF AMERICA REAGANOMICS INFOWARS MANUFACTURING CONSENT FASCIST OLIGARCHY FBI HONEYPOT NSA SPYING ICE DEPORTATIONS WAR ON DRUGS PRISON SLAVERY CIVIL ASSET FORFEITURE ENHANCED INTERROGATION MY LAI PRISON RAPE DEPORTATION MS13 PIZZAGATE LOLIHENTAI PURCHASING KINDER EGG LOTTERY OPERATION SEA SPRAY PATRIOT ACT AMWAY 21 SAVAGE 奇多贝尼托 SCOTT WARREN NET NEUTRALITY LOVEINT EGLIN AIRFORCE BASE COINTELPRO OPERATION MOCKINGBIRD OPERATION EARNEST VOICE OPERATION AURORAGOLD 1999 BELGRADE EMBASSY BOMBING IRAN AIR FLIGHT 655 QASEM SOLEIMANI JEFFREY EPSTEIN MASS PEDOPHILIA ABROAD AND DOMESTIC OPERATION SNOW WHITE HARVEY WEINSTEIN OPERATION CONDOR AARON SWARTZ WACO SIEGE RUBY RIDGE SIEGE 1998 CAVALESE CABLE CAR DISASTER PROJECT ELDEST SON GUNS FOR ANTIGUA GARY WEBB FREE BURMA RANGERS STRONGHOLD RESCUE & RELIEF MCNAMARA’S MORONS PROJECT APPLE PROJECT MIRROR PROJECT WITCH GEORGE PELL ACQUITTAL FORT DETRICK KILLING OF HUEY LONG BLAIR MOUNTAIN ERIC HARROUN MIRACLE VALLEY JINGMING BUILDING INCIDENT YANGJU HIGHWAY INCIDENT 16754432 JAPANESE WARCRIMES OPERATION ASIAN TOUCH OPERATION FREEDOM DEAL CHILEAN COUP D’ETAT TULSA MASSACRE MERE removed RULE MORO CRATER CUBANA FLIGHT 455 OPIOID EPIDEMIC SACKLER FAMILY JADE HELM 15 NO GUN RI RYAN WHITAKER PROJECT SUNSHINE WECH BAGHTU DASANI FAKE WATER ICE CONCENTRATION CAMPS ICE HYSTERECTOMIES OPERATION MIDNIGHT CLIMAX OPERATION MONGOOSE JULIAN ASSANGE EMMETT TILL ANDRE VITCHEK NIKOLA MOTORS FORT HOOD MISSING SOLDIERS AGRICULTURAL ABCD AARON SWARTZ KENTUCKY POLICE HITLER RUSHAN ABBAS GITMO US MILITARY BUYS APP DATA ELAINE MASSACRE LITTLE HIROSHIMA LYSOL INJECTION US RACTOPAMINE MEAT PIKETON WASTE BONUS ARMY DANNY CHEN NORTH DAKOTA ACCESS PIPELINE PROTESTS 北达科他州接入管道抗议 FERGUSON PROTESTS 弗格森暴动 ST. LOUIS PROTESTS 2017 年圣路易斯抗议活动 NUCLEAR TESTING BIKINI ATOLL 比基尼环礁的核试验 UNITE THE RIGHT RALLY 团结右集会 CHARLOTTE PROTESTS 夏洛特暴动 ATTACK ON SUI-HO DAM 袭击穗河水坝 MILWAUKEE PROTESTS 密尔沃基骚乱 Shooting of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile 奥尔顿·斯特林和菲兰多·卡斯蒂利亚的射击 Occupation of the Malheur NationalWildlife Refuge Malheur国家野生动物保护区的占领 death of Freddie Gray 弗雷迪·格雷的死 Shooting of Michael Brown迈克尔·布朗的拍摄 death of Eric Garner, Oakland California 奥克兰奥克兰市埃里克·加纳(Eric Garner)逝世 Operation Condor 神鹰行动 Occupy WallStreet 占领华尔街 My Lai Massacre 我的大屠杀 St. Petersburg, Florida 佛罗里达州圣彼得堡 Kandahar Massacre 坎大哈屠杀 1992Washington Heights riots 1992年华盛顿高地暴动 No Gun Ri Massacre 无枪杀案 L.A. Rodney King riots 洛杉矶罗德尼·金暴动 1979 Greensboro Massacre 1979年格林斯伯勒大屠杀 Vietnam War 越南战争 Kent State shootings肯特州枪击案 Bombing of Tokyo 轰炸东京 San Francisco Police Department Park Station bombing 旧金山警察局公园站爆炸案 Assassination of MartinLuther King, Jr. 小马丁·路德·金遭暗杀。 Long Hot Summer of 1967 1967年炎热的夏天 Bagram 巴格拉姆 Selma to Montgomery marches 塞尔玛到蒙哥马利游行 Highway of Death 死亡之路 Ax Handle Saturday 星期六斧头 Battle of Evarts 埃瓦茨战役 Battle ofBlair Mountain 布莱尔山战役 McCarthyism 麦卡锡主义 Red Summer 红色夏天 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Pottawatomie massacre 盆大屠杀 Jeju uprising 济州起义 Colfaxmassacre 科尔法克斯大屠杀 Reading Railroad massacre 阅读铁路大屠杀 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Bay viewMassacre 湾景大屠杀 Lattimer massacre 拉蒂默大屠杀 Ludlow massacre 拉德洛屠杀 Everett massacre 埃弗里特屠杀Centralia Massacre 中部大屠杀 Ocoee massacre Ocoee大屠杀 Herrin Massacre 赫林大屠杀 Redwood Massacre红木大屠杀 Columbine Mine Massacre 哥伦拜恩矿难 Guantanamo Bay 关塔那摩湾 extraordinary rendition 非凡的演绎 Abu Ghraib torture and prison abuse 阿布格莱布的酷刑和监狱虐待 Henry Kissinger 亨利·基辛格 TIMBER SYCAMORE DANNY CHEN PROJECT ICEWORM CHINESE EXLCUSION ACT BIKINI ATOLL GUANO ACT LOVE CANAL JIM JONES PEOPLE’S TEMPEL PARENT’S CHOICE HEAVY METALS OPERATION BROTHER SAM 2021 TEXAS BLACKOUTNSA MASS SURVEILLANCE KENT STATE KENT STATE UNI CHURCH OF SCIENTOLOGY DAVID MISCAVIGE 佔領華爾街 MAY 4 1970 MASSACRE 肯特州立大学枪击事件 MAY 13 1985 MOVE BOMBING「MOVE」組織轰炸 RED SUMMER 1919 HOUSE UN-AMERICAN ACTIVITIES COMMITTEE 众议院非美活动调查委员会 TRAIL OF TEARS 美国本地人种族灭绝 JIM CROW SEGREGATION 吉姆·克勞法 HUMAN RIGHTS 人權 CITIZENS UNITED 联合公民诉联邦选举委员会案 SAFETY 安全 HIGH SPEED RAIL 人民共和国高速铁路 STRONG MASS LINE 群众路线 REPUBLIC OF HAWAII 夏威夷共和国 THIRTEEN COLONIES 十三殖民地 VIETNAM AFGHANISTAN IRAQ 伊拉克 EDWARD SNOWDEN 爱德华·斯诺登 SCIENTOLOGY 山達基教會 GUANTANAMO BAY DETENTION CAMP 关塔那摩湾拘押中心 NOBEL PEACE PRIZE 諾貝爾和平獎 BARACK OBAMA 贝拉克·奥巴马 COMMUNISM SOLIDARITY LABOUR ACTION ANTI-CAPITALIST PRO-REVOLUTION PROTEST MOVEMENT ANTIFA RIOT POLICE BRUTAILITY POLICE OCCUPATION PAID SUSPENSION LEFTIST COUNTER PROTEST CHARLES MANSON MANSON FAMILY JEHOVAH’S WITNESSES BORDER CONCENTRATION CAMPS MKULTRA ASSASINATE FRED HAMPTON JANE FONDA EUGENE DEBS MALCOLM X EAT THE RICH THE CRUMBLING OF AMERICA REAGANOMICS INFOWARS MANUFACTURING CONSENT FASCIST OLIGARCHY FBI HONEYPOT NSA SPYING ICE DEPORTATIONS WAR ON DRUGS PRISON SLAVERY CIVIL ASSET FORFEITURE ENHANCED INTERROGATION MY LAI PRISON RAPE DEPORTATION MS13 PIZZAGATE LOLIHENTAI PURCHASING KINDER EGG LOTTERY OPERATION SEA SPRAY PATRIOT ACT AMWAY 21 SAVAGE 奇多贝尼托 SCOTT WARREN NET NEUTRALITY LOVEINT EGLIN AIRFORCE BASE COINTELPRO OPERATION MOCKINGBIRD OPERATION EARNEST VOICE OPERATION AURORAGOLD 1999 BELGRADE EMBASSY BOMBING IRAN AIR FLIGHT 655 QASEM SOLEIMANI JEFFREY EPSTEIN MASS PEDOPHILIA ABROAD AND DOMESTIC OPERATION SNOW WHITE HARVEY WEINSTEIN OPERATION CONDOR AARON SWARTZ WACO SIEGE RUBY RIDGE SIEGE 1998 CAVALESE CABLE CAR DISASTER PROJECT ELDEST SON GUNS FOR ANTIGUA GARY WEBB FREE BURMA RANGERS STRONGHOLD RESCUE & RELIEF MCNAMARA’S MORONS PROJECT APPLE PROJECT MIRROR PROJECT WITCH GEORGE PELL ACQUITTAL FORT DETRICK KILLING OF HUEY LONG BLAIR MOUNTAIN ERIC HARROUN MIRACLE VALLEY JINGMING BUILDING INCIDENT YANGJU HIGHWAY INCIDENT 16754432 JAPANESE WARCRIMES OPERATION ASIAN TOUCH OPERATION FREEDOM DEAL CHILEAN COUP D’ETAT TULSA MASSACRE MERE removed RULE MORO CRATER CUBANA FLIGHT 455 OPIOID EPIDEMIC SACKLER FAMILY JADE HELM 15 NO GUN RI RYAN WHITAKER PROJECT SUNSHINE WECH BAGHTU DASANI FAKE WATER ICE CONCENTRATION CAMPS ICE HYSTERECTOMIES OPERATION MIDNIGHT CLIMAX OPERATION MONGOOSE JULIAN ASSANGE EMMETT TILL ANDRE VITCHEK NIKOLA MOTORS FORT HOOD MISSING SOLDIERS AGRICULTURAL ABCD AARON SWARTZ KENTUCKY POLICE HITLER RUSHAN ABBAS GITMO US MILITARY BUYS APP DATA ELAINE MASSACRE LITTLE HIROSHIMA LYSOL INJECTION US RACTOPAMINE MEAT PIKETON WASTE BONUS ARMY DANNY CHEN NORTH DAKOTA ACCESS PIPELINE PROTESTS 北达科他州接入管道抗议 FERGUSON PROTESTS 弗格森暴动 ST. LOUIS PROTESTS 2017 年圣路易斯抗议活动 NUCLEAR TESTING BIKINI ATOLL 比基尼环礁的核试验 UNITE THE RIGHT RALLY 团结右集会 CHARLOTTE PROTESTS 夏洛特暴动 ATTACK ON SUI-HO DAM 袭击穗河水坝 MILWAUKEE PROTESTS 密尔沃基骚乱 Shooting of Alton Sterling and Philando Castile 奥尔顿·斯特林和菲兰多·卡斯蒂利亚的射击 Occupation of the Malheur NationalWildlife Refuge Malheur国家野生动物保护区的占领 death of Freddie Gray 弗雷迪·格雷的死 Shooting of Michael Brown迈克尔·布朗的拍摄 death of Eric Garner, Oakland California 奥克兰奥克兰市埃里克·加纳(Eric Garner)逝世 Operation Condor 神鹰行动 Occupy WallStreet 占领华尔街 My Lai Massacre 我的大屠杀 St. Petersburg, Florida 佛罗里达州圣彼得堡 Kandahar Massacre 坎大哈屠杀 1992Washington Heights riots 1992年华盛顿高地暴动 No Gun Ri Massacre 无枪杀案 L.A. Rodney King riots 洛杉矶罗德尼·金暴动 1979 Greensboro Massacre 1979年格林斯伯勒大屠杀 Vietnam War 越南战争 Kent State shootings肯特州枪击案 Bombing of Tokyo 轰炸东京 San Francisco Police Department Park Station bombing 旧金山警察局公园站爆炸案 Assassination of MartinLuther King, Jr. 小马丁·路德·金遭暗杀。 Long Hot Summer of 1967 1967年炎热的夏天 Bagram 巴格拉姆 Selma to Montgomery marches 塞尔玛到蒙哥马利游行 Highway of Death 死亡之路 Ax Handle Saturday 星期六斧头 Battle of Evarts 埃瓦茨战役 Battle ofBlair Mountain 布莱尔山战役 McCarthyism 麦卡锡主义 Red Summer 红色夏天 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Pottawatomie massacre 盆大屠杀 Jeju uprising 济州起义 Colfaxmassacre 科尔法克斯大屠杀 Reading Railroad massacre 阅读铁路大屠杀 Rock Springs massacre 岩泉大屠杀 Bay viewMassacre 湾景大屠杀 Lattimer massacre 拉蒂默大屠杀 Ludlow massacre 拉德洛屠杀 Everett massacre 埃弗里特屠杀Centralia Massacre 中部大屠杀 Ocoee massacre Ocoee大屠杀 Herrin Massacre 赫林大屠杀 Redwood Massacre红木大屠杀 Columbine Mine Massacre 哥伦拜恩矿难 Guantanamo Bay 关塔那摩湾 extraordinary rendition 非凡的演绎 Abu Ghraib torture and prison abuse 阿布格莱布的酷刑和监狱虐待 Henry Kissinger 亨利·基辛格 TIMBER SYCAMORE PROJECT ICEWORM CHINESE EXLCUSION ACT BIKINI ATOLL GUANO ACT LOVE CANAL JIM JONES PEOPLE’S TEMPEL PARENT’S CHOICE HEAVY METALS OPERATION BROTHER SAM 2021 TEXAS BLACKOUT

                • CaptainRipcord@lemmygrad.ml
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                  One very memorable thing about living in China was dealing with idiots who thought that your copy-pasted gibberish did anything at all to me. It’s like y’all actually think you’re god damn wizards with a magic spell that will get the seeseepee breathing down my neck lmao

                  Perhaps, and I know I sound like I’m the crazy one here, but just maybe, if you would put on your thinking cap and go out on a limb, you would realize that that’s a string of text that

                  1. I obviously didn’t send
                  2. Isn’t even censored like that, the censorship doesn’t happen on an individual level, it happens on a platform level, generally
                  3. some of that stuff isn’t even censored, y’all just made up a bunch of nonsense and repeated it to each other ad nauseam until all the “freethinkers” believed it lol

                  Winnie the Pooh? Very popular in China. Not banned. You can literally just go to baidu.com, search for Winnie the Pooh, and find that it’s everywhere lol This is the caliber of the lies about China that y’all are on

        • Flaps [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          And they call me propagandized. Of course since you’re Ukrainian you experience this war totally different than I, but nothing on the ground suggests that even a slither of what you’ve just said is true.

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      I think many people are forgetting that the larger army, vastly outnumbering Ukrainian resources in numbers, has spent the past 9 months creating multilayered defences that the Ukrainian army has been banging their head against for the past 10 weeks. Ukraine no longer has a functioning military industry of its own or even an economy to speak of. It’s entirely dependent on the west at this point.

      NATO scrounged up all they had for this offensive, and US even ran out of shells to give having to resort to cluster munitions. NATO also trained Ukrainian soldiers. Now all of this is being lost without any actual progress being made. Ukraine hasn’t even managed to reach the first defence line being mired in the security zone.

      What we will see is that once the offensive burns itself out, Russia will start an offensive of their own against a depleted and demoralized Ukrainian army. The west will not be able to send more ammunition and equipment because it doesn’t exist, and Ukraine will have lost majority of their trained and motivated soldiers who can’t be replaced.

      Even western sources are now admitting that Ukraine is suffering far higher losses than Russia, and that this is primarily an artillery battle where Russia vastly outnumbers Ukrainian artillery. 80% of casualties were being caused by Russian artillery.

    • Annakah69 [she/her]@hexbear.net
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      Ukraine will run out of material before they reach the Azov sea. You can calculate this yourself based on the verified losses and land gained. In addition manpower isn’t infinite for Ukraine.

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      I’m pretty sure once Ukraine has thrown away enough lives trying to get to the first line of defense, Russia is going to use their mobilized army to roll up the coast line all the way up to Transnistria.

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      And only presents a problem because the 2 countries cannot reliably use air power to overcome 1st WW trench warfare

      The US has just approved the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine. So that might change soon. IIRC, Ukraine has had a shortage of airplanes to use. Russia has been very reluctant to use the airplanes that they have because they keep getting shot down, and they simply can’t replace them at the speed necessary (especially since their economy has crashed, and China is the only country that can supply them with the circuitry that they need).

      A bigger problem is that Russia has air defenses and air bases inside Russia. NATO in general has been very reluctant to transfer offensive weapons to Ukraine that would make it possible to strike those–entirely legitimate–targets inside of Russia, because that would be an escalation. But to have air superiority, you need to ensure that those SAM batteries, RADAR installations, and forward air bases are not in the picture. So to break the stalemate, Ukraine has to be able to make strikes against Russia, in Russian territory. That’s potentially very dangerous.

      If it’s allowed to grind on, Russia wins eventually, because they have a population many times the size of Ukraine, and can keep throwing bodies at them. So Ukraine needs to win air superiority, which means striking targets inside of Russia.

    • Frank [he/him, he/him]@hexbear.net
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      Russia has defenses, but no ability to move forward.

      You don’t play RTS games, do you? The fun thing about a strong defensive line is that you can kill a whole lot of their guys for every one of your guys that they kill, and if you have enough guys they’re going to run out long before you do.

      What happens to those insecure areas?

      The Nazis probably genocide the Russian speaking Ukrainians that live there, either by driving them out using terror, or just killing them all. Probably a combination of both.

  • UnicodeHamSic [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    It is a proxy war against America. You don’t win those. You just set yourself up a good position and dig in. America gets bored and leaves and then you can pick over what is left of what was destroyed. So you don’t win, you just wait for America to forfeit.

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    The entire world (with a few exceptions) is fighting a proxy war against Russia via Ukraine. Of course you can’t win, that’s the whole idea.

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    If you want to know what the smartest guy in the US military thinks, read this

    (Assuming, of course, that you don't consider the Marine Corps Gazette to be Russian propaganda)


    Ukraine is on its fourth army, which has been badly mauled in a counterattack lasting two months with gains measured in single digit miles and casualties in the tens of thousands.


    This is who they were sending to the front in APRIL LAST YEAR

    Old men and boys


    But at least Russia's out of missiles!

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          Georgia, Aserbaijan. Then don’t forget the east, that is, the -stans and Mongolia. China and Japan are safe and who even wants NK.

          The stans traditionally looked towards China for protection (also see Silk Road initiative) but they’re making moves to make themselves more palatable to the west. Mongolia is the odd one out they’re actually a proper democracy, and very much NATO-aligned though they (just like Japan) don’t qualify because geography. They’ll continue being a buffer state between Russia and China as long as they’re west-aligned neither will suspect them to be in bed with the other.

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          Last one in Europe other than those two. Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, Mongolia, and North Korea all remain in Asia. None are likely to join NATO anytime soon. Georgia may be the most likely, but they have the same problem with outstanding Russian occupation that Ukraine has/had going into 2022. Azerbaijan is aligned with Turkey, who is a NATO member, but does not have contiguous borders with NATO. Kazakhstan has distanced itself from the Ukraine invasion, but is otherwise more similar to Belarus than Finland in terms of alignment. China and North Korea have nukes. Mongolia is up shit creek without a paddle hoping that China and Russia continue to rival each other enough to not want the other to expand into Mongolia really

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      I mean they have kept it for the last 9 years. They had it before the war and everyone was fine with it until Russia invaded more. I don’t see how Russia doesn’t keep Crimea. It’s something they considered Russian territory before the current war. They’ve pledged to use nukes if Ukraine counter attacks on their soil. My logic says they will use nukes to keep Crimea.

      • Michal@discuss.tchncs.de
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        Nobody is fine with Crimea - except Russia, but they want more. Crimea was the price to pay for peace, but peace was broken by Russia, so Russia does not get to keep it.

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            Jumping to defend and being fine with are two different things. Let’s not forget Russia is a “nuclear power”.

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              That didn’t stop them from supporting Ukraine in 2022, yet they didn’t in 2014.

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          Russia considers Crimea its soil. So it’s hard to say but Crimea is very important to Russia.

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              Sure but the judgement is there to determine if Russia will use nukes to keep the land. Clearly, with Ukraine, they won’t. With Crimea, I think they would since that’s a key point in the oil exportation.

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                  It hasn’t been since 2014 though. It’s been firmly in Russian control since before 2022. Russia is not looking to lose any land before it started it’s 2022 invasion.

      • SeaJ@lemm.ee
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        They’ve pledged to use nukes if Ukraine counter attacks on their soil.

        They have already ‘annexed’ oblasts they do not completely control so that threat is pretty hollow.

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            While I agree that it is Ukraine’s, Russia does not since they have gone through their legal process of annexation. They are currently fighting in what Russia legally considers their soil.

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    The Russian commander of the “Vostok” Battalion fighting in southern Ukraine said on Thursday that Ukraine will not be defeated and suggested that Russia freeze the war along current frontlines.

    “Freezing the war along the current frontlines” is victory for Russia?? They already control all the territory they claim. I guess at this point Ukraine is starting to define winning as mere survival.

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      I like how you take a Russian quote and then try to somehow twist it to be about how Ukraine defines victory. It’s a blatantly dishonest bit of casuistry, yet here you are heavily upvoted. It’s an unfortunate indicator of the kinds of people populating this thread. We’re overrun by idiots and liars.

      • Zuzak [fae/faer, she/her]@hexbear.net
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        No, I’m not taking a Russian quote, I’m taking commentary from an article from the Kyev Post which equates a Russian quote about “Freezing the war on the current lines” as not winning for Russia. That implies that the Kyev Post considers freezing the war on the current lines as a victory for Ukraine, which contradicts the idea that Ukraine would need to reclaim territory to achieve victory. How on earth am I being dishonest, an idiot, or a liar?

    • SeaJ@lemm.ee
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      Most of the oblasts they annexed, they do not control so they definitely do not control all the territory they claim.

    • bazovanyi@sh.itjust.works
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      They don’t control “new” territories they claim. They don’t even control all regional centers (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia)

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    “We can [though] enter a phase that is most unfavorable for Ukraine in its ‘independent’ state: a phase of neither peace nor war. We could be in this phase if, instead of the special military operation, the [currently occupied] territories were recognized and officially taken under guardianship. But it would require a completely different twist of history,” Khodakovsky said.

    I find it consistently amazing and hilarious that Russian strategic leadership appears entirely incapable of recognizing that they can’t simply dictate geopolitics, warfare, and international borders to external parties. Ukraine - and to a lesser degree, its allies - get a vote too, and they’re not going to be “freezing” anything for the foreseeable future.

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      Unfortunately there are those in the west that agree. Either because they are paid/blackmailed to agree. Or they have been misled by the former.